10/27 - 5pm - Quiet in West Tennessee, Sandy Takes Aim

Ready for a REAL taste of fall? It's here.... and It's going to stick around for quite awhile. A large mass of cool air continues to work its way into West Tennessee this morning behind yesterday's cold front. That means temperatures today will be getting into the upper 50's across the region. By the time we get to late tonight and early tomorrow morning we'll be talking about mid to upper 30's for lows. Bundle up! High pressure will keep this cooler air locked in place through the week and sunshine will be plentiful as it has been in most places today. We'll need to watch for some frost in areas during the mornings starting on Monday as temperatures fall to near freezing overnight. High temperatures will slowly work their way to near 70 degrees by the end of the workweek.

Let's talk about Hurricane Sandy. It's a weak hurricane right now but the setup is more complicated than just that. As it moves toward the Northeast it will merge with a trough moving across the eastern half of the nation. This will transition the storm from a hurricane to what's called an extratropical storm. Basically this means that the storm won't feed off of warm water like a tropical system would. This will turn Sandy into the very, very large storm that its already beginning to become. Threats for wind damage, storm surge, and flooding will be possible for a broad swath of the Delmarva Peninsula through New England. New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington DC are included in this among many other locations. The storm surge issues will be amplified by the size of the storm, which moves more mass of water, and by the fact that this will be happening during a full moon, which maximizes tide. Check out the tropical storm force wind probabilities to the right... this is pretty significant when you consider there's a 60-70% of sustained tropical storm winds from Delaware to Long Island.

Another threat this storm poses is snow. West Virginia with its higher elevations will bear the brunt of the snow with 1 to 2 feet expected in areas. The latest run of the GFS model paints a very large area of 18"+ snowfall amounts through Tuesday evening. This could be crippling because there are still leaves on the trees that this heavy, wet snow will weigh down on snap limbs. Mass power outages are very likely whether you're in the wind/rain area in the Northeast or in the snow area in West Virginia.

In the video below you'll get a full dose of information on Hurricane Sandy and your latest West Tennessee forecast.

8/15 - 6pm - Severe Weather Craziness Back Home

Radar image from NWS Louisville

Saturday's severe weather in Louisville put many LG&E customers without power as winds exceeding 60 mph hit the city. At its peak the storm caused over 128,000 customers to lose power in Louisville, but that number has now dwindled down to 23,000. On radar it appears the storm may have bowed outward a bit due to the strong winds pushing ahead of it, and downbursts were likely the cause of much of the heavy damage in central parts of the city. Folks in Southeastern Jefferson County near the Jeffersontown, Middletown, Fisherville, and even down to Bullitt County saw a bit of a scary sight as the leading edge of the storm produced an arcus or shelf cloud. While not dangerous on its own this cloud often marks the leading edge of the gust front in a thunderstorm, which can carry damaging winds. Check out my photo from my back yard below:

With some schools still lacking power, Jefferson County Public Schools has cancelled classes tomorrow after already cancelling the first day of school for the academic year today. I'm not sure if JCPS has ever canceled the first day of school before, but this is certainly not the first time they've had to cancel due to power outages (wind storm of September '08 and major ice storm of January '09 are prime examples). A couple more nice weather days in Louisville will help with power restoration and tree clearing efforts.

Mississippi State Weather

I'm back at Mississippi State University for the semester and classes begin on Wednesday. The humidity been much lower in Starkville today since the passage of a cold front yesterday. Unfortunately reality will gradually return this week as temperatures surge back into the 90's and humidity increases as return flow transports Gulf moisture northward again. Daily small afternoon storm chances will return on Thursday or so.

Return to TV in Jackson, TN

If you're in Jackson, TN or the surrounding West Tennessee region, you'll want to tune into WBBJ ABC 7 this Saturday morning at 6am as I make my return to the Good Morning West Tennessee Saturday newscast. It's been about four months since my last show there due to my month-long storm chasing trip and time back home in Louisville, so I'm itching to get back to what I love doing most. We'll be bringing you weather updates every 10 minutes along with the morning's top news stories and events that you need to know about to get your weekend started!

8/4 - 9pm - Just Another Wacky Day in Louisville

Talk about some wacky weather, a surprise flood that damages millions of dollars worth of property, traps many in their vehicles, and knocks out power to thousands of residents. If you told me last night that we would break the all-time record for a one-hour rainfall today with 6 inches in places around the Metro, I would have told you to see a doctor. So, in the last twelve months we've had a record-breaking wind storm, record-breaking ice storm, and a record-breaking surprise flood. Is this really just another day in the wacky realm of Louisville weather?

Many are asking why, what happened? Why did this eastward line of storms this morning suddenly make a 90-degree southward turn over Southern Indiana and slam Louisville? My answer is about as clear as the one from the rest of the meteorological community at the moment: I don't really know. My guess would be something to do with the lower level jet, which is a rapid stream of wind a few thousand feet off the ground. This jet normally activates at night when there is little to no instability, meaning it can power late-evening thunderstorms with little interference from rising parcels of unstable air. The thunderstorms heading eastward this morning may have come in contact with or lost contact with the lower level jet this morning by some fashion and that may have made a difference in the direction they were moving. Technicalities aside, I've never seen a storm system take a sharp turn like that before and it was about as freak of an event as, say, a wind storm from the remnants of hurricane over Kentucky (oh wait a minute...).

Looks like we're going to see more rain in a few hours here in town, but I don't think it will be as heavy as the deluge we had this morning.

2/12 - 7:30pm - Calmer Weather... For Now.

I'm not sure if the city (or the region for that matter) can handle another wild-weather week. Luckily next week looks pretty calm with some light rain or snow on Monday and rain possible ending as a little bit of snow on Wednesday night. No Return of the Wind Storm or The Ice Storm Strikes Back in sight.

There are still 9,000 LG&E and 7,000 KU customers without power from yesterday's winds. Winds were much worse to our north and east, especially in Pittsburgh where upwards of 200,000 were out power.

In the short term, we'll see a high in the mid 50's tomorrow with rain coming in during the nighttime, which should be out of here by Saturday afternoon. Highs in the 40's will be around for the weekend. More 40's for next week.

2/4 - 5:30pm - One More Cold Day

Who's ready for temperatures near 60? I think most of us are saying yes, and luckily we're in for some near-60 temperatures for the weekend! Unfortunately, we have to muscle through one more day below freezing tomorrow (looks a little bit colder than it did in yesterday's data) before this warm-up can start. One more cold day means one more frigid night as well, with that being tonight. I think the suburbs could bottom out near 4 degrees early tomorrow morning, with temperatures hovering below 10 in the city. The 7,000 without power in Louisville right now will really have to hunker down tonight with these single digit temperatures, but luckily power has been restored to 97% of those who lost it.

In the long range, things look pretty interesting. The GFS is showing a couple storms coming through the region after the 13th with cold air to work with. It's way too far out to tell if any of these will give us snow, but the pattern is certainly worth watching.

1/30 - 4:30pm - Models Having Difficulties

The models I mentioned earlier are still going way off to the east with this Monday storm, except for the NAM now:



That's a definite westward shift from earlier runs of the NAM, so we'll see if this spreads to other models. I still smell something fishy. The way that just about every model shifted this storm way off to the east in one model run really doesn't make sense. I think we'll see flip-flopping over the next few runs, but the easterly solution that the GFS and ECMWF are portraying probably won't stay. We'll have to see if this reverts back to where we were last night or if this stays just to our east.

For the time being, we'll warm up tomorrow into the 30s and into the mid 40s on Sunday. LG&E is now reporting 174,000 without power, which is up a bit due to trees falling in the wind and other factors. I've been listening to the Mayor's press conference, and he's really emphasizing safety with generators and carbon monoxide problems. Remember: Do not use generators or grills inside your house or garage. Keep those appliances away from your home and windows to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. There have been fatalities in the area due to carbon monoxide, so be very careful if you are using a generator or other similar appliance. There probably aren't very many people reading this blog who do not have power (unless on a mobile device), but pass this information along to those who don't have power if you can.

1/30 - 10:15pm - Monday Snow Going East?

The latest GFS, NAM, and even the ECMWF (Euro) are taking our storm on Monday well to the east now. It's strange how all the models changed at once last night with this shift. I'm not sold on the far eastern track that it's taking, but I'm beginning to think that the models I posted yesterday are too far west. We'll see how this shapes up today and tomorrow.

The latest numbers from LG&E show that 172,000 are still without power and 11,329 lines are down. Still looks like 7-10 days before everyone gets power back.

1/29 - 9pm - Monday Looking Increasingly Interesting

First off, LG&E is reporting 190,000 without power right now. This is up a bit from last check due to more trees falling as the day went on. For a map of the current power outage estimates in Jefferson County, click here. A state-wide map can be found here.

On to the next storm, which could be a whopper if things fall into place. An area of low pressure surging north from the Gulf of Mexico should cool things down on Monday from the near 50 degree temperatures we'll have on Sunday. The accompanying precipitation with this storm will be impressive to say the least, maybe even historic. Here's the latest model outputs:


18z GFS


12z ECMWF (European)


18z DGEX

Notice how all three of these models offer a similar track for the intense low, which is west of where it was forecast to go yesterday. The Canadian (posted yesterday) looks about the same, but has shifted west slightly. You're probably looking at the darker greens and blues on the GFS and DGEX and saying "Uh-oh." I'm saying the same thing. Look at this preliminary accumulation estimate taken from the GFS for this storm:



Yeah, that's 6-8" at a 10:1 rain/snow ratio. Here's the problem: we'll be operating at a ratio that could get higher than 12:1 during the coldest part of the storm, when the freezing line at the surface sinks way south of here. These totals could be nearing 12" if that happens.

We're still four days away, so things could change. The daunting issue is that the models are agreeing on this storm pretty well. I think there is a chance that it could correct eastward, but I'm only seeing westward trends at this point. If this low track changes slightly and pulls up more moisture from the Gulf, we could be dealing with a historic storm. It will be interesting to see what happens. Again, whatever happens on the models this weekend will be the deciding factor on whether Louisville, Lexington, or somewhere further east gets the brunt of this storm.

1/28 - 7:30pm - A Cold Night for Many

As night descends on a city where many are without power, a low near 10 degrees does not sound good at all. This will be a rough week and weekend because temperatures will not even break the freezing mark until Sunday (when we get into the 40s). A little light snow on Friday will freshen up the snow on the ground across the area, but nothing more than a dusting will come of this. I'm more worried about the winds that could come with this system, topping 20mph in some cases. This could cause more ice-covered limbs to fall, meaning more power outages. I can already tell that "snow" has become a four-letter word around the area, with the word "ice" rising to a whole new level of vulgarity.

Whether you like snow or not, there is a possibility for a snowstorm on Monday. The GFS and DGEX are showing a storm in here during the day on Monday and lasting into Tuesday morning:


18z GFS


18z DGEX

I've been watching this develop on the models for a couple of days now and it's been fairly consistent. A little ray of hope for those who dislike snow is Canadian model, which is taking the brunt of this storm to our east:


12z Canadian

At any rate, I don't think this storm will harbor any ice due to the relatively cool temperatures forecast to be present at 850mb (5000 feet). This is certainly a storm to keep tabs on through the weekend.

1/28 - 4pm - JCPS CLOSED REST OF THIS WEEK

Jefferson County Public Schools will be closed for the rest of this week according to media reports. As many as 67 schools are without power at the moment.

1/28 - 1pm - A Wild Storm Comes to an End

The snow and ice are out of here, but the region will be dealing with power outages and tree damage for quite a while. Temperatures are steadily dropping across the area, with 25 degrees at my house right now. The interstates are passable, but side roads and county roads are treacherous if they have not been plowed. Tree limbs on roads are also causing quite a few problems as well.

Here's what it looks like in my neck of the woods:



Since temperatures will not get above freezing until at least the weekend, the trees are going to look sickly for quite some time. My neighborhood roads are terrible, but it's not impossible to drive on them. This is one of those days where an all-wheel-drive or 4-wheel-drive vehicle will come in handy.

UPDATE (1:15pm): LG&E is now reporting 100,000 without power in the Metro, with KU reporting 176,000 outages throughout the state.

1/28 - 9:30pm - Power is Back!

Our power was restored early this morning, so I'm back online for the day.

The snow is falling hard out there, with temperatures dropping rapidly. We were at 31 about a half hour ago and now we're at 28. This is around the temperature for a flash freeze, so any standing water left over from last night will freeze. The ice from overnight has the trees looking sickly and many without power. 75,000 LG&E customers are without power right now with 125,000 KU customers without power as well.

I just took a look at the TRIMARC cameras around the area and the interstates look snow and ice covered. They're passable, but not good at this point. I would recommend staying home if at all possible. There have been just under 100 accidents on the roads since midnight.

I think everyone will end up with 2-4" of snow as forecast. The tale-end of this system is approaching the area, but I think we have up to an hour more of heavy snow. After the heavy snow ends, we're done with this storm.

9/19 - 1pm - Warming Up a Bit

Mid 80's will stick around here for the weekend as the sunny and dry weather continues. A small system to our south will bring showers to downstate Kentucky, but no such luck for us. We really do need the rain. At least the weather is pristine for the Ryder Cup!

We're down to 98,000 customers without power from LG&E, which is still a huge number considering the winds rolled through on Sunday. JCPS will have school on Monday since only 14 schools lack power and generators can be used for them. The school year will be extended to June 1st to accommodate the missed days. With a possibly nasty winter on the way, it's doubtful that this will be the final time this year that the last day of school is moved.

9/18 - 5:30pm - Dry and Powerless

We're still sitting at 129,000 LG&E customers without power in the Metro, with 30 of those being JCPS buildings. Luckily the weather is quiet and it isn't terribly warm.

With the Ryder Cup going on this week, we want to make sure the weather is perfect. I can assure you that it will be beautiful during this stretch, but we need rain badly. The next chance of rain could be as far away as a couple weeks from now, as the GFS has a dry and high pressure dominant pattern setting in.

With this dry weather, the temperatures have risen slightly in the forecast. We're looking at highs in the lower 80's for the next week as opposed to 70's. The air will be a bit stagnant for the next couple weeks, so we could see air quality problems as well.

9/17 - 4pm - We're Back in Business!

The power came back on at my house a couple hours ago much to my surprise. Since we live on the Jefferson/Spencer County border, we're usually the tail end last people to get power restored after a storm. Three days of "camping" inside my house is finally over and normal life resumes... unless you go to a JCPS school (which I do). JCPS is canceling for the rest of this week due to more than 40 schools without power. Things should return to normal by Monday and classes should resume.

That was some wind event. I can't even call it a storm because barely a drop of rain fell with it! Many are still puzzled as to why this happened, and here's why: Remnants from Hurricane Ike slid northwest of here on Sunday morning as a cold front intercepted it and made it increase in speed. As that was happening, a low level jet of around 70-90mph was making itself known a few thousand feet off the ground. Once the air started mixing from the ground into that jet, high wind gusts got to our altitude and wreaked havoc. That's it in a nutshell.

With not a drop of rain in the forecast for the next week, highs should stay in the lower 80's. Our next chance of rain could be as far away as next Tuesday... boy do we need it!