Thursday, May 6, 2010

5/6 - 3pm - Only One Day Left!

It's hard to believe that tomorrow is my last full day in Louisville before I leave for my storm chasing trip on Saturday morning. I'll be heading out to Amarillo, TX to start my month-long journey throughout the Plains in search of severe weather with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. Remember, I'll be making daily blog posts with HD storm video, pictures, and chase reports. You can also follow me on Twitter or Facebook to get up-to-the-minute chase updates, meaning you'll be the first to know if we see a tornado!

We may be heading to West Texas on Sunday, our first day, to chase any supercells that form there, but conditions are looking ripe for a good-sized severe weather outbreak in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas on Monday, which will be our second day of chasing. Instability (CAPE) values approaching 3000 J/kg, bulk shear of over 60 kt, and dewpoints near 70 degrees will really get things going late Monday afternoon. My guess right now is that we'll probably position ourselves somewhere in Central Oklahoma in the morning and wait to see where the winds begin to turn from the east. Winds during the morning hours should be from the South and Southeast, but areas that begin to back to the east will have the most potential for tornadoes. We may end up anywhere from Kansas to North Central Texas depending on how conditions evolve. The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined the potential severe weather outbreak in their 4-8 day outlook.

Back home here in Louisville, there's a 15% risk of severe weather tomorrow. We may see some severe storms tomorrow evening as a cold front approaches the region, bringing with it the risk of hail, high wind, and possibly a tornado or two. The bigger risk of severe weather will be to our northeast in Ohio, where instability values, shear, and moisture will be higher. Definitely something to keep an eye on tomorrow, but I think it won't be near as bad around Kentuckiana tomorrow as some of the previous severe weather outbreaks we've seen over the past couple weeks around the Southeast.

1 comment:

Craig McPeck said...

Wind directions will be favorable for tornadoes from northern Texas into Central Oklahoma, so your in a great spot. Dew points between 65-70...Bulk Wind shear of 60-70 knts...instability 2000-3000..PERFECT day for tornadoes.