6/3 - 11am CDT - Heading Back to Denver

Yesterday we chased a very picturesque supercell storm northeast of Minot, North Dakota. While it didn't produce a tornado, the cloud formations in the storm were spectacular alone. The first cell we tried to intercept drifted into Canada, but the cell in the picture below stayed just south of the border and we were able to take quite a few pictures as the sun set. The only bad thing about this storm was that it occurred over the flooded fields of North Dakota, so the mosquito swarm was out in force (yes, I'm itching all over this morning). It was very difficult to even hold still for three seconds to take a picture because the mosquitos began covering and biting exposed skin almost immediately after getting out of the van. Keep that in mind as you're viewing the photos below.








It was quite an experience yesterday since most of us haven't been that far north in the contiguous 48 states before. Our overnight stay in North Dakota means a long (700 mile +) trip to Denver, Colorado to day so that we can pick up our next tour group and say goodbye to our guests on tour 5. Sadly, this is also the end of the road for me this season. I'll be flying back to Louisville tomorrow afternoon so that I can spend some time with my family this summer. It's been a great run and I'll post a quick wrap-up of this week's chase and my whole trip here either later tonight or tomorrow.

6/1 - 10am CDT - Moving South Today

We're ready for storms today after a long drive back south from Detroit Lakes, MN yesterday. We started the day in Oacoma, SD and are headed westward to catch a southern route near Murdo, SD. We expect to keep heading south through Nebraska until we see a good spot where winds and cloud formation become conducive for supercell development. That area could be as far south as Goodland, Kansas. West-southwest flow at 500 mb and moisture surging northward will create the instability needed for this afternoon, while east-southeast winds will contribute to the low-level shear necessary for rotating storms. The one issue we're dealing with this morning is cloud cover across much of Nebraska and portions of Kansas. It should burn off/move out in time for storm development, but if it doesn't we may have an "event failure" (AKA no storms). Check out the satellite image below and you'll see what I mean:


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather this afternoon and tacked on a 5% tornado risk as well.


As we keep an eye to the sky this afternoon I'll be posting frequent updates on Twitter and Facebook. Be sure to follow me on those sites for the latest reports!

5/30 - 10:15am CDT - Time for Some Northern Plains Action

We're off to Eastern South Dakota (Northeast Nebraska maybe?) to intercept storms that will form up that way. This has so far been a difficult forecasting day because the computer forecast models show an area of low pressure in Nebraska this morning, but each have a slightly different scenario on where it ends up. Some are even forming a secondary low to the north this afternoon. The general rule for today is to drive to where the east winds are and adjust our position as necessary because we simply can't trust any model output. This is one of those days where skill in analyzing surface conditions and cloud formation will be key.


Since moisture, instability, and shear will all be ample today combined with the east winds, wherever they set up, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather with a 10% tornado risk. Supercells that form today won't stay isolated for very long since directional shear will be parallel to the cold front pushing through according to the SPC. If this happens as forecast, we may only have a short window to chase a good storm with a tornado risk, so being on-time is very important. That's why we left North Platte, NE at 8am his morning. We should be in our target area early this afternoon.


As we pulled in a restaurant to eat breakfast this morning, we saw The Weather Channel's Tornado Hunt vehicles in the parking lot. We also saw quite a few other chasers pull in to restaurants and hotels in North Platte last night, so I'm sure that town was happy to see the quick uptick in business generated by all the chasers.


Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook today. I'll be posting frequent updates and photos from our chase, which should be a good one if the forecast plays out.

5/30 - 12am CDT - Upslope Storms Part Deux Fell Flat

Our second attempt in chasing upslope storms within a week fell flat today. Like last time, the cap stayed on too tight and a layer of clouds and fog overspread our target area just as we thought storms would initiate. While we waited this afternoon just east of Cheyenne, WY, we ran into Mike Bettes and the Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt crew.

The very fog that moved into our target area only grew thicker as we moved into Nebraska to try and limit our driving time needed for tomorrow. At it's thickest point, the fog dropped visibility to around 300 feet as we headed east on I-80. We literally could not see the signs on the side of the road until they were just to the right of the edge of our hood.

Tomorrow could be a pretty big day in the Dakotas and Northern Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (45%) for portions of the area and expects a few significant tornadoes tomorrow afternoon before the storms merge into a linear line. I'll have an update tomorrow morning when we get on the road, which will be early so that we can get to our target on time.

5/29 - 10:45am MDT - Upslope Storms, Part Deux

We're heading to Northeast Colorado/West Nebraska/Eastern Wyoming this morning for the second time in less than a week in search of upslope thunderstorms. Hopefully this run will be more successful than our attempt last week when the cap held on too tight and there were no storms (save for a weak one in West NE). The setup today is fairly classic for this area, with east winds already setting up across much of Northeast Colorado, West Nebraska, and Eastern Wyoming. These are the surface winds necessary to get the moist air to lift as the air moves west along the increasing elevation (scroll down to my 5/26 post to get a more detailed explanation).


Our major concern this morning has been the cloud shield, but it appears that it's clearing out pretty well to allow for the building of instability this afternoon. We're looking at a 5-6pm MDT timeframe when storms will fire across our target area as surface heating overcomes the cap (warm layer of inhibiting air aloft). A warm front pushing northward should help this process and increase dew points. Hopefully we'll get some supercells out of this today. With the east winds at the surface and southwest winds aloft, I'm inclined to think that we will as long as the cap doesn't hold too tight.


Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates while we're chasing!

5/26 - 11:45am MDT - Upslope Storms in Northeast Colorado

Good morning from I-70 westbound near Burlington, Colorado! We're on the hunt for upslope thunderstorms in Northeast Colorado (maybe Eastern Wyoming?) today since this appears to be the best chance for severe weather across the Plains. The reason we call these storms "upslope" is because they form when easterly or southeasterly winds blow into the higher elevations near the Rocky Mountains, causing air to lift as it does. This lift helps to create thunderstorms because the lifting air cools to its condensation point (a cloud is born) as it increases in elevation with the topography. Check out the graphic I made this morning to explain this concept to our tour guests during our briefing for a good visual:


It appears that shear will be quite good today, so rotating thunderstorms and supercells aren't out of the question. The tornado risk doesn't appear to be high today, but storms that have formed out this way over the past couple of weeks have had a history of overachieving by producing tornadoes and landspouts. Dew points will be in the upper 40's and 50's this afternoon across Eastern Colorado, which is good for storm development in this area. The elevation here compensates for the lack of moisture in the air, so you don't need the 60 degree + dew points that you need in the Central and Southern Plains. We already have dew points in the 40's this morning and the southeast upslope winds to carry in even more moisture, so we're well on our way:


The Storm Prediction Center has issued what's called a "See Text" for Northeast Colorado and Eastern Wyoming today. This means that the SPC doesn't feel this risk area merits a Slight Risk, but instead they want to direct your attention to the textual discussion below the graphic on the webpage for further information. This does not mean there won't be severe weather out here today. Since there will only be a couple isolated supercells affecting a small population, it's not worth it to issue a Slight Risk area. These supercells could put down tornadoes as I said before, but the risk to life and property is minimal due to the aforementioned low population out here. That's good news because we will have a great view of these storms today without the dangers and hinderance that populated areas pose to storm chasers. There is also a 2% tornado risk through extreme Northeast Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and Western Nebraska, which is something new on the 1630z SPC outlook that wasn't included with the early morning one. Hopefully we'll find some good storms today!


Don't forget to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest chase updates this afternoon!

5/25 - 11:30am CDT - Heading to Eastern Colorado / HIGH Risk East

After a very active day of chasing, we're heading to Eastern Colorado to prepare for tomorrow's risk of upslope storms in that area. Yesterday we drove 362 miles across Oklahoma while chasing and you can see a couple pictures and some video that I shot in the post below.


A HIGH Risk of severe weather has been issued by the SPC for West Tennesee, Western Kentucky, Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana, and Northwest Arkansas. Just a quick look at some data this morning reveals high dew points and winds backing to the south across the region. The satellite picture is also clear for most of Kentucky and Tennessee, so instability is building quite a bit already this morning. Cities like Jackson and Memphis in Tennessee, Paducah, Owensboro, and Louisville in Kentucky, Jonesboro, Arkansas, St. Louis, Missouri, and Evansville, Indiana need to be on high alert for a possible tornado threat this evening.

5/24 - 11:45am CDT - HIGH Risk in Oklahoma

Yet another tornado outbreak is on the way in the United States today and this time we're going to be smack-dab in the middle of it. A strong cut-off area of low pressure moving across the Plains this afternoon will provide the needed moisture-laden surface winds from the southeast and dry, pushing air from the southwest to create a sharp dry line that will be the focus for storm development this afternoon. Instability values will be off the charts as the cap (thunderstorm-inhibiting layer of warm air above the surface) breaks sometime during the middle of the afternoon. Temperatures aloft today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, so storms should stay isolated, especially south of the Kansas border. Locations near that border will most likely see a similar situation to yesterday, when tons of developing storms merged into an un-chaseable complex. There's a bit of a cloud shield situated vertically across the central part of the state this morning, but it should clear out fairly quick.


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare HIGH Risk for Oklahoma and Southern Kansas because of how potent this setup looks. The issuance of a HIGH Risk may not seem rare because of all the destructive outbreaks that have happened this year, but overall they don't issue one but once or twice at the most in a normal season. The risk includes a 45% tornado risk (!), something that has only been used for the devastating April 27th tornado outbreak in the South this year. Needless to say, expectations are high and a lot of folks are nervous around here. We're getting in position right now in Oklahoma and making adjustments as necessary based on conditions.


With such a huge outbreak expected, today is certainly the day that you need to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for my latest chase updates and photos if you haven't already.

5/23 - 11am CDT - Destruction in Joplin / Today's Chase in OK

The US just can't catch a break from horrendous tornado destruction this year. Last night a very powerful wedge tornado tore through the town on Joplin, Missouri leaving nearly 40% of the town destroyed and 89 dead as of this writing. Many are calling this tornado, which also ripped through a hospital in Joplin, an EF4 tornado. While no official designation will be given to this twister until the National Weather Service completes a survey of the damage, the look of the destruction on TV and online suggests an EF4-like tornado. The pictures coming in look just like Tuscaloosa, which was hit by a similar tornado on April 27th. We were not in Joplin last night because it was too far away from our starting location in Amarillo where we picked up our new tour guests. We also usually don't chase in that area because of the increased vegetation and topography issues. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)


This morning we're in Oklahoma getting into position for what could be another active day. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather across much of Oklahoma and unfortunately the hard-hit Joplin area in Missouri. A 10% tornado risk accompanies this severe weather outlook, which you'll find below. Dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 will be more than enough for storm development this afternoon and east surface winds coupled with southwest winds aloft should enhance wind shear. The surface area of low pressure we're watching along the Oklahoma/Kansas border may be dropping south and west this afternoon, so we'll have to follow the good surface winds as they move.


Don't forget that you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates as we're chasing!

5/22 - 3:15pm CDT - Another Week Begins!

We're heading toward Oklahoma today to be in position for tomorrow's chase. The risk area right now from the SPC for tomorrow has Central Oklahoma in the crosshairs (see below), but we're thinking Southwest Kansas might be a better bet based on the surface wind forecast alone. We'll see how it sets up tomorrow morning before we head out. Tuesday looks good too, and our target area will likely be just east of where it will be tomorrow.


Our journeys took us to Palo Duro Canyon just south of Amarillo this morning as we wanted to kill some time before heading into the "wilderness" of Northwest Oklahoma. Check out this panorama below that I took:

5/20 - 11:20am CDT - Off to Western Oklahoma

After a not-as-good-as-we-thought-it-would-be day yesterday, we're off to Western Oklahoma in search of storms that will likely fire this afternoon behind an already ongoing line of storms in the central and eastern part of the state. Upper-level winds should be supportive of storms that could fire this afternoon, but we're still waiting for the atmosphere to recover behind the ongoing storms this morning. Short-range models indicate ample moisture with decent instability in the western part of the state. The dry line, which you can easily see in the dew point forecast image below, will provide a focus for storm formation as outflow boundaries from this morning's storms interact with it. This interaction will create lift to get storms going this afternoon. Temperatures aloft will still be a little cool for really good isolated storm development, but we'll take what we can get.


Be sure to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates this afternoon!

5/18 - 9:30am CDT - We're Back to Chasing!

It's been a long start to the week since there haven't been any storms to chase here in the Great Plains. That changes today. We're on our way to Oklahoma in search of tornadoes this afternoon, and I think the potential is looking pretty good considering how things have been this week. Moisture is still going to be an issue, but surface dew points should recover somewhat today. That recovery will take time, so storms may not form until later in the afternoon. Easterly winds at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft at 500mb (18,000 ft) should create ample shear for today's setup, meaning any supercells that form will stay discrete and have the associated tornado risk with them. CAPE or instability shouldn't be a problem based on the modeling for this afternoon and the cap (warm updraft-inhibiting layer of air aloft) should break sometime after 3pm. Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon for much of Southwest Kansas and Western Oklahoma with a 5% tornado risk for the Panhandle region through Southwest Oklahoma.


Be sure to follow my updates on Facebook and Twitter for the latest on our storm chasing adventures this afternoon!

5/11 - 9:45am CDT - Southern Kansas Today

Our prospects for storm chasing this afternoon in Southern Kansas are not as good as previously thought. A line of storms that formed last night in the Texas Panhandle is drifting through west Kansas and Oklahoma right now. This is never a good thing because those morning storms can easily inhibit instability and make the potential for discreet super cells lower. BUT, once these storms depart the area and we get the sunshine back we'll begin to rebuild the atmospheric potential for severe weather this afternoon. The sooner the storms leave, the better things will be this afternoon. Because of these developments, the Storm Prediction Center has downgraded their Moderate Risk from last night to a Slight Risk this morning.


We'll see how it all goes today. East surface winds, a dryline push, and good wind speeds at 500mb (but a bit too southerly for comfort) are all in our favor for today despite the morning storms. I'm confident that severe weather will happen today in Kansas/Oklahoma, but the setup has become much more complex and the potential for good discreet supercells has decreased.

Storms will most likely start after 2pm CDT this afternoon. Be sure to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates!

5/9 - 5pm CDT - Waiting for Storms in South Dakota

We're awaiting storm development here in Murdo, South Dakota. East winds at the surface and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60's (yes they actually did make it up north today) are favorable for storms, along with a push of dry air from the south. Upper-level winds at 500mb are still a bit weak and from the south (you want them from the southwest), but nevertheless everything else seems to line up. These storms could develop anytime between now and overnight tonight, so this is truly a waiting game.

We ran into Reed Timmer's "Dominator" of Discovery Channel fame a few minutes ago in Murdo, SD. Check out this photo that Chad, a guest on our tour, took while we visited with Reed and his Tornadovideos.net crew:

5/9 - 10:30am CDT - On the Road to Valentine

We're on the road to our initial target location today, Valentine, Nebraska. Easterly winds caused by an area of low pressure centered just west and slightly south of this area are the focus of why we're heading there today.


Temperatures at 700mb are between 11 and 12C over a good chunk of Southern SD/Northern NE, so at least we'll have that on our side for tornado development. Moisture is still a bit short in the area, but some of the very latest short-range models indicate dew points reaching 65 and higher west of Sioux Falls, SD, which would be a very welcome development. Again, with a lack of upper-level windspeed the threat for tornadic supercells is iffy, but at least a couple of variables like surface winds and 700mb temperatures are in our favor. I'll be updating on Twitter and Facebook throughout the day!

5/7 - 4pm CDT- Hello From Amarillo, TX!

I'm all settled in here at our hotel in Amarillo after a flying in from Louisville. Tonight our tour guests on tour 2 will gather for orientation at a conference room here in the hotel and then we'll go out for a nice dinner before a week of gas station burritos and fast food while chasing.

As a tradition during each tour that departs from Amarillo, the restaurant we'll be eating at is the world-famous Big Texan Steak Ranch. This place is the real deal here in the Texas Panhandle if you're looking for a taste of the stereotypical "Wild West". At the center of the two-floor establishment is an elevated table where diners can try their hand at eating a 72oz steak (with side dishes) within an hour's time. Besides being the spotlight for all the diners at the restaurant, each participant's attempt at eating this behemoth is streamed live online via a video camera mounted on the second floor. It's a fun place and it certainly starts each tour with a lighthearted ice-breaker for everyone.

Tomorrow's target will be a spit decision. Our target area will most likely be somewhere near Wichita Falls, Texas, which is just a few hours drive from Amarillo, or Northern Nebraska (maybe Kansas?). The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather posted for West Oklahoma/North Central Texas and Northern Nebraska/Southern South Dakota, but we'll see how everything sets up in the morning before deciding on a specific target area.

The NAM model has a good setup for the Texas/Oklahoma border near Wichita Falls right now with high CAPEs, serviceable wind shear, and decent low-level moisture. The LCLs (Lifted Condensation Level - height of cloud bases) are a little high for my taste at 3000 to 6000ft, which could limit tornado potential in any supercell that fires up. The other chase target in Northern Nebraska/Southern South Dakota (or Northern Kansas based on some of the newest model output) seems to have most of the characteristics of the Texas/Oklahoma one, but LCLs will be slightly lower and shear values could be higher. Those two components alone lead credence to a higher tornado threat, but there's concern that moisture from Texas won't make it up there in time for the advertised severe weather development (see right image - 850mb dew points at 0z Monday). We'll see how it looks in the morning before a final judgement is made!

Be sure to keep up with my updates on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest information while we're chasing tomorrow!