Wednesday, May 19, 2010

5/19 - 11:15am CDT - Another Oklahoma Outbreak

Things are really lining up this morning for another severe weather outbreak in Oklahoma. The dry line will push east to near Lawton, Oklahoma this afternoon, providing a good source of lift this afternoon. CAPE values (instability) will be over 4000 J/kg in some areas and shear will be well over 40 kt. As low pressure moves into the state, winds should back to the east somewhere between Central and South Oklahoma depending on exact movement. Dew points near or over 70 will be markedly better than yesterday's setup in Texas as well. Fast southwest flow at 500mb and diffluence at that level will also help get uplift going. The best news I've seen this morning is that the storm motion is still around 20-25 kt, meaning the storms will be moving slow enough for us to chase them. Last week in Oklahoma we had storms that were moving 40-50 kt and we just could not stay up with them. The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk and a 15% hatched tornado risk for most of Oklahoma, which is the best probability we've seen this week.

Don't forget to view our LIVE video stream this afternoon at when storms break out. To get updates on our chase and to find out when we're streaming, follow me on Twitter or Facebook.

UPDATE 12pm CDT: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH Risk of severe weather for portions of Oklahoma including Oklahoma City.

1 comment:

Craig said...

They've been upgraded to a 30% risk for tornadoes now.. crazy! Have fun storm chasing.