10/17 - 11:30pm - NWA 2011 Meeting Wrap-Up

Both yesterday and today I attended and volunteered at the 36th Annual National Weather Association Meeting in Birmingham, Alabama. This was the most-attended NWA meeting in history and evidence of that was clear this morning when there were no more seats for attendees! The volunteer portion of my attendance had me taking video of research posters from students and professionals for the agenda on the NWA website. While the meeting runs until Thursday, I had to leave late this afternoon to attend to class-related things back in Starkville. I wish I could've stayed longer because this was one of the best put together functions I've ever attended.

Speaking of attendance, I was able to meet quite a few experienced broadcast meteorologists while I was there. Some of those folks were Jim Cantore (The Weather Channel), Jacqui Jeras (CNN), Christie Dutton (WAVE-TV Louisville), Ryan Vaughan (KAIT-TV Jonesboro), Mary Wasson (YNN Austin), and Dave Freeman (KSNW Wichita). It was also great to see some old friends whom I've met before in Starkville at the Mississippi State Severe Storms Symposium.

The sessions that took place while I was there mostly focused on the historic tornadoes from this past year, and some of these spurred some really great discussion on how we as broadcast and operational meteorology professionals can improve our methods to save lives in severe weather. One of the things that strikes me from multiple presentations is the public's low use of NOAA weather radios. While these are lifesaving devices, it's clear that these things are very difficult to operate if you're not familiar with consumer electronic devices or don't understand how SAME codes work. This is a huge problem because people then depend on less reliable means of receiving warnings like tornado sirens. As I tweeted earlier today, Dave Freeman suggested that weather radios should use ZIP codes instead of SAME codes to separate out warnings. This would be much easier because just about everyone knows their ZIP code, but almost nobody (including me!) knows their county SAME code without consulting the NWS website. It's true that this wouldn't be an easy solution since either the radios or warning system would have to be able to identify ZIP codes based on coordinate polygons and because some ZIP codes are way too big. In the long run though, these would be relatively minor changes to a system that's had years of development behind it.

There's also been talk from a lot of people suggesting the placement of GPS chips in weather radios to determine exact location so that there's even less of a chance of the radio going off for a warning that does not pertain to the user. This is also a great idea that wouldn't require terribly huge changes to radios and how warnings are issued. Overall, I gathered from today's and yesterday's presentations that more needs to be done to make severe weather warnings more accessible and understandable to the public to save lives in events like April 27th. The technology is there and the ideas are in place, and the recent tornadoes that claimed so many lives this year are proof that these changes are necessary.

5/30 - 12am CDT - Upslope Storms Part Deux Fell Flat

Our second attempt in chasing upslope storms within a week fell flat today. Like last time, the cap stayed on too tight and a layer of clouds and fog overspread our target area just as we thought storms would initiate. While we waited this afternoon just east of Cheyenne, WY, we ran into Mike Bettes and the Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt crew.

The very fog that moved into our target area only grew thicker as we moved into Nebraska to try and limit our driving time needed for tomorrow. At it's thickest point, the fog dropped visibility to around 300 feet as we headed east on I-80. We literally could not see the signs on the side of the road until they were just to the right of the edge of our hood.

Tomorrow could be a pretty big day in the Dakotas and Northern Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (45%) for portions of the area and expects a few significant tornadoes tomorrow afternoon before the storms merge into a linear line. I'll have an update tomorrow morning when we get on the road, which will be early so that we can get to our target on time.

5/27 - 9am MDT - Tornado Video/CO Storm/Weather Channel

I was able to upload my tornado video from near Walsh, CO on Tuesday to YouTube in HD. Take a look!



This video aired on The Weather Channel yesterday during my live phone interview on-air with them. This is the second live interview I've done for them in two weeks, which is so exciting! I was actually able to get my family back home to record this interview, so I'll have it uploaded for everyone to see when I get home in just over a week from now.

Here's a video of the storm we chased north of Denver yesterday. Notice the ominous wall cloud that forms very quickly and nearly touches the ground:



There's a risk for severe storms in Montana and North Dakota today, but I'm not sure if we'll actually go up there due to poor road networks and cell coverage. I'll let you know in my next blog post this morning!

5/22 - 2pm CDT - Switching Out Tour Groups

Today is a day of rest in Amarillo as we say goodbye to the guests on Tour 3 and welcome our new guests on Tour 4 this evening. As usual we'll be having our orientation meeting tonight at the hotel and then going out to dinner at The Big Texan restaurant here in town. This past week will go down as one of the most exciting we've had out here because of our close tornado intercepts in Oklahoma on Wednesday. Media-wise it was very busy this week as well. I did a live phone interview on The Weather Channel on Wednesday and my video from our tornado intercepts aired on Thursday and Friday.

Will next week be as active as this week was? I think the answer is yes based on some of the latest computer modeling. Southwest flow aloft will continue throughout much of the High Plains next week, meaning shear and cold air aloft will be adequate for severe weather in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, and Colorado. That's quite a contrast from the last two weeks when we've been mostly in Texas and Oklahoma. I don't see any huge outbreaks in the near future, but I think tomorrow could be quite active in Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed the Nebraska/South Dakota border under a 30% Slight Risk area for severe weather, but they note that it could be nightfall before storms affect that area. We'll probably target an area south of where the 30% risk due to high cloud bases up there, which are not good for tornadoes. I'll have a full update tomorrow morning!

5/20 - 11pm CDT - On to the Texas Panhandle Tomorrow!

Even though our supercell thunderstorms south of Brownwood, Texas didn't have any tornadic potential this evening due to weak upper wind support, we had a great time watching them form and photographing the lightning show that started just before dark. The picture on the left was my best shot of the evening... pretty good for a little point-and-shoot camera I'd say!

It looks like we'll be off to the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for the area and our current thinking is that moisture will be best around there. We'll get a better handle on all the data in the morning before we set off. For now, I need some rest. I was up extremely late last night editing tornado video from Oklahoma and only got two hours of sleep. My efforts paid off though because that video aired on The Weather Channel this afternoon. It's cool to know that what I shoot with my little HD camera can be seen by millions around the country!

4/6 - 5pm - MSU Forecast Video

We may see some severe weather late tomorrow night in Starkville as a cold front makes its way across Mississippi. The main threats will be large hail and wind, but I would not rule out an isolated tornado or two. The rest of the week will be cooler, but at least the rain will be out of here!



Don't forget to tune in to The Weather Channel this evening at 8/7c to see my Aurora, NE tornado footage on Storm Stories. One of our tour guests who was on our chase that day will be interviewed as well. Should be a great look back at my first tornado intercept!

4/4 - 10pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

Hope everyone had a wonderful Easter weekend! It looks like we're in for back-to-back good weather weeks here as high pressure again takes control across the Southeast. The only chance of rain in the near future looks to be on Thursday morning, but that should taper off by the afternoon. The rest of the week looks sunny and warm!


On Tuesday April 6th at 8pm/7pm central, some of my footage from the June 2009 Aurora, NE tornado will air on "Storm Stories" on The Weather Channel. This show is a part of Tornado Week. I'm not sure how much or or little of the footage will air, but I do know that one of our tour guests was interviewed on-camera for this episode. In any case I will record the episode and upload the parts that our chase group is featured in. Should be fun to see how The Weather Channel edited the video from all the different chasers together!

10/21 - 11pm - Heavy Rain!

A mid latitude cyclone is very slowly pushing east and dumping rain over a good portion of the United States. Two days of heavy rain is in store for us in Mississippi as this storm begins turning toward the Great Lakes. Flash Flood Watches have been posted for a majority of Mississippi in anticipation of the rain. The HPC's precipitation estimate gives us well over 2 inches of rain here in Starkville, but most computer models are painting a general area of near 2 inches for this two-day event. Keep the umbrella handy!

This weekend's MSU vs. Florida game looks dry and cool, with a temperature in the 60's at game time on Saturday. Go Bulldogs!



The Weather Channel made headlines this week by announcing the start of Friday night weather-related movie airings. The Perfect Storm will be the first movie in this series with titles like March of the Penguins and Deep Blue Sea coming soon. Twister may even be in the works according to the New York Times.
[Forecast for Movies on the Weather Channel - The New York Times]

In other news... I'm getting ready to do some pretty cool weather-related stuff on campus soon. More details to be announced in the coming weeks!

6/12 - 7am MDT - Supercell in Colorado Yesterday

Things started pretty quickly once we got out to Eastern Colorado yesterday. Cells fired due to upslope flow, but they started sticking together and could not produce tornadoes at that point:


We watched these storms form just east of Denver and then we let one pass over us so that we could get south of it. Marble-sized hail fell brutally upon our vehicle, but nothing was big enough to cause damage. What did cause some problems was the amount of hail that stayed on the ground minutes after the storm passed:


I-70 east of Denver was covered with hail and we lost traction at least twice while braking. The air temperature also dropped to a frigid 39 degrees as the hail fell, down from around 65 just minutes earlier. We went to the tail-end of this now conjoined storm system to see if anything would intensify, but nothing was happening.

That's when a little cell near Pueblo, CO started making itself known on radar. It was unknown how this cell would develop, but after a few minutes of radar observation it became clear that this cell was going to be a good one. We made the drive down to the Pueblo area and found an intense supercell that was dropping a wall cloud. A second one formed just to the south of the first after a few minutes and then both started to fluctuate and join. This joined supercell was absolutely enormous and gave chasers (including VORTEX2, the TIV, and The Weather Channel) a few hours of absolute action. We even found the TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) and took some very close-up pictures! Unfortunately it did not put down a tornado, but we did see a brief rope funnel (2:34 in video below). Here's a video of the cell from its early stages to sunset:



Here are some pictures:

6/10 - 12:30am CDT - Impressive Supercell!

This morning's target area of somewhere south of Wichita, KS quickly changed to west of Wichita once storms fired this afternoon. All storms to the south and east of Wichita became conjoined and had problems getting too severe because there was no east wind to fuel much rotation. Then there was a cell near Dodge City, KS that managed to keep itself separated and started moving to the right (that's a good thing!). As we approached Greensburg, KS, which was destroyed during a tornado in May 2007, it took on a classic flat updraft base and dropped a downright scary wall cloud.

The area just west of Greensburg was crawling with VORTEX2 vehicles, The Weather Channel, and other media trucks. We saw a bit of a dust cloud swirling on the ground under the storm, but we assumed it was a bit of inflow. It turns out that this could have been a tornado without the condensation funnel according to VORTEX2 reports. We chased the cell through its phases until it dissipated. This cell was very close to spawning a tornado, but we think cold outflow air from storms to the east contaminated the updraft base before it could do so. Here's a video of the cell from when we intercepted it to when it dissipated:



Here are a few photos:



A DOW (Doppler On Wheels) from VORTEX2.



The Weather Channel was broadcasting live during this storm and we saw some post-storm broadcasting going on next to this MSNBC SUV (NBC now owns The Weather Channel).

Tomorrow's target area will be in Kansas like today, so we really don't have to drive far! Time for some much needed sleep...

9/2 - 8:30pm - From the Lexington Herald-Leader

The Lexington Herald-Leader has posted a blurb about The Weather Channel contest that I talked about last week... click here. Kudos to them for picking up the story! It'll be interesting to see if this gets picked up by any of the other papers.

I must say congratulations to the grand prize winner Dorsey Franklin from Jamestown, Kentucky. Her winning entry was a neat hurricane coverage video with lots of weather jargon and explanations. Great to see a fellow Kentuckian involved in weather!

8/29 - 6pm - Weather Channel Contest, Storms in the Area, Gustav

A couple of months ago I submitted one of my video forecasts to a video contest at the Weather Channel. Recently, I found out that I won the "Most Likely to be a Meteorologist" award for my entry and the results of the other contestants were posted today. Here's a link to the Weather Channel's Stephanie Abrams giving a rundown of all the winners: Click here. To see my contest entry, click here. Main contest page: click here.

Storms have popped up along the cold front coming through the area and are giving us a NICE dose of rain. We've needed it for nearly two weeks now. Most areas in East Louisville have seen rain today, but areas west of I-65 have not had that luxury. These areas might not see rain until late next week. Sunny skies and 90 degree temperatures will prevail for next week.

Hurricane Gustav is showing a little bit of a westward shift in forecast track as updated models come in. Here's the NHC's track:



The spaghetti chart shows the same trend as the NHC's, so I don't need to post that. This is still not looking good for New Orleans, but at least it looks like the eye might veer off to the west of the city. An area from East Texas to the Central Louisiana coast looks like the prime target area for landfall right now, at least until the models change again. Hanna is still churning in the Atlantic as a tropical storm with the potential to briefly become a hurricane before hitting the Bahamas.