6/26 - 10:40am MDT - Another Day, Another State

Yesterday near the Black Hills of South Dakota we saw a few storms develop but they never got organized enough to be good for chasing. One storm in particular had some promise but it just couldn't get strong enough to leave the elevation of the Black Hills where its updraft was rooted. Today we're going north from the Black Hills and moving into North Dakota where there should be a threat for severe storms this afternoon. In particular, areas near and just west of Williston, North Dakota into extreme Eastern Montana appear to be under the greatest threat since a few isolated storms could produce hail, wind, and maybe even an isolated tornado. The Storm Prediction Center only has a general thunderstorm risk for this area but there's a 2% tornado risk included. You'll see the Slight Risk up there in Montana as well in the map to the right, but that area is very remote and the surface winds likely won't cooperate as well for storms like they will in North Dakota.

Winds aloft are forecast to be stronger in our target area today than they were yesterday in South Dakota since the upper-level disturbance over the northwestern part of the country will be moving east a little. When you couple these stronger southwesterly winds aloft with southeasterly winds at the surface that can create some shear for rotating storms. It's worth noting that the best surface winds could be in Canada just north of North Dakota and Montana since an area of low pressure will be spinning winds around from the east there. Since we can't go to Canada, that's obviously out. Dew points in North Dakota are downright soupy this morning and will likely continue to be that way through the afternoon. Having 70 degree dew points right on the Canadian border is something you don't see too often.

With all the warm air and moisture in place, instability will be plentiful for storms. I talked about the threat of isolated tornadoes today on the SPC's outlook and that may very well verify if the instability and shear come together. A great way to combine those two factors is to look at the Energy Helicity Index, which starts getting higher in an isolated spot in Western North Dakota according to the RAP Model. We'll see if it's enough to get some good storms going this afternoon and evening!

Keep up with our chase today by following me on Twitter and Facebook!

6/3 - 11am CDT - Heading Back to Denver

Yesterday we chased a very picturesque supercell storm northeast of Minot, North Dakota. While it didn't produce a tornado, the cloud formations in the storm were spectacular alone. The first cell we tried to intercept drifted into Canada, but the cell in the picture below stayed just south of the border and we were able to take quite a few pictures as the sun set. The only bad thing about this storm was that it occurred over the flooded fields of North Dakota, so the mosquito swarm was out in force (yes, I'm itching all over this morning). It was very difficult to even hold still for three seconds to take a picture because the mosquitos began covering and biting exposed skin almost immediately after getting out of the van. Keep that in mind as you're viewing the photos below.








It was quite an experience yesterday since most of us haven't been that far north in the contiguous 48 states before. Our overnight stay in North Dakota means a long (700 mile +) trip to Denver, Colorado to day so that we can pick up our next tour group and say goodbye to our guests on tour 5. Sadly, this is also the end of the road for me this season. I'll be flying back to Louisville tomorrow afternoon so that I can spend some time with my family this summer. It's been a great run and I'll post a quick wrap-up of this week's chase and my whole trip here either later tonight or tomorrow.

5/30 - 12am CDT - Upslope Storms Part Deux Fell Flat

Our second attempt in chasing upslope storms within a week fell flat today. Like last time, the cap stayed on too tight and a layer of clouds and fog overspread our target area just as we thought storms would initiate. While we waited this afternoon just east of Cheyenne, WY, we ran into Mike Bettes and the Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt crew.

The very fog that moved into our target area only grew thicker as we moved into Nebraska to try and limit our driving time needed for tomorrow. At it's thickest point, the fog dropped visibility to around 300 feet as we headed east on I-80. We literally could not see the signs on the side of the road until they were just to the right of the edge of our hood.

Tomorrow could be a pretty big day in the Dakotas and Northern Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (45%) for portions of the area and expects a few significant tornadoes tomorrow afternoon before the storms merge into a linear line. I'll have an update tomorrow morning when we get on the road, which will be early so that we can get to our target on time.

5/28 - 11:45pm MDT - An End to a Great Week!

Not one thunderstorm developed in Wyoming today while we were out there. The cap (warm layer of air above the surface that inhibits storm development) was on too tight today and all the cumulus cloud development we saw was suppressed. Storms didn't even develop in North Dakota as forecast due to capping issues and surface winds becoming westerly earlier than forecast. At least we had a nice tour of Southeast Wyoming!

Storm Chasing Adventure Tours is saying goodbye to the guests on tour 4 tomorrow morning here in Denver and welcoming our new guests for tour 5 tomorrow night. Tour 5 is going to be very big, with 24 people in four SUVs. I won't be the only Kentuckian out here for much longer either. WAVE 3 TV meteorologist and good friend Kevin Harned from Louisville will arrive here tomorrow to begin chasing with us as a driver and forecaster.

It looks like we'll start out chasing on Sunday in either Kansas, Oklahoma, or the Texas Panhandle. A pair of disturbances pushing through the Plains next week should make most of the week pretty active, but there may be a couple down days.

5/28 - 10am MDT - Wyoming and Colorado

The best risk for severe weather today is in North Dakota, but we won't be able to make it there on time today. It's an eleven hour drive from Denver and we have to be back tonight for everyone's flights out tomorrow. Instead of North Dakota, we're going to shoot for the Wyoming/Colorado border area. Southwest flow aloft coupled with southeast surface winds and a batch of dry air coming into the area in the upper atmosphere should put the right ingredients in place for severe weather. A lack of a good source of lift and a strong cap in place may be a problem today, but we're hoping upslope flow overcomes some of these issues. The SPC has issued a 2% risk of tornadoes for the area, so maybe we'll be able to find some good storms today!

If severe weather develops today we'll be streaming LIVE video at http://stormchasertv.com. I'll also have the latest updates on Twitter and Facebook.