Monday, December 21, 2009

12/21 - 12:45pm - Christmas Rain, New Year's Snow?

Unless there are any major changes in the computer models in the next 24 hours, I think we're in for some potentially heavy rain on Christmas Eve in Louisville. The rain should taper off on Christmas Day, ending as a few snow showers or flurries if we get lucky. There could even be some thunder on Christmas Eve if convection gets going around here. This same storm will give places like Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska a nasty winter storm with dangerous amounts of ice and snow. I know everyone in Louisville wanted a white Christmas, but quite honestly it's better to have the rain then have another ice storm on our hands during the holidays.

The reason we're missing the snow is because of a lack of high pressure support in Canada. Earlier computer models were forecasting a strong high pressure "block" that would drive this storm southward, but later models have since weakened the effect of this.

On to the next storm... The long range GFS has been consistently displaying some sort of potential New Year's snowstorm for the region. There may even be two storms around this period to watch based on the current runs, so we'll have to watch what happens. It's extremely early to be calling for snow or rain for this time period, but I do believe that the pattern will be better suited for snow here next week. So we have the storms, but now we just need some high pressure in Canada/North US to keep them south of us. Today is only the first day of winter, so don't give up on snow yet!

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