Monday, May 7, 2012

5/7 - 10am CDT - On Our Way to South Texas

The same cold front that we targeted yesterday in Kansas and Oklahoma is on the move southward and so are we. We're on our way to South Texas this morning to meet up with where the front, the dry line (boundary between moist air to the east and dry air to the west), surface heating, easterly winds, and moisture all meet up. Storms should fire along the front and/or dry line this afternoon as instability builds. You'll see in the image to the right that there's a sliver of high dew points that will develop in Southwest Texas this afternoon that will be our focus as the cold front moves south.

Due to the threat of severe storms this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk area for portions of South Texas with a 2% tornado risk (pictured left). Some of these storms will have large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk, like yesterday, looks fairly low due to weak winds aloft, but the directional wind shear will help out as well as high instability. There may just be enough ingredients to spawn one or two tornadoes today down there, so we'll cross our fingers and keep driving!

As usual, I'll be posting up-to-the-minute storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts today.

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