A layer of cirrus clouds really but a damper on our chase today as they blocked storms from forming along a cold front that was in the process of moving through Central Kansas and Northwest Oklahoma. The cold front also accelerated, which didn't help since areas that were prime for development had their warm, moist air swept out quickly. Storms did develop in Northeast Kansas today, but the potential up there for the best isolated storms was considerably less than where we were based on the data we use. Those storms were clustered together as expected, but a couple were able to get out by themselves for a bit and get a little rotation (one dropped a funnel cloud that possibly touched down briefly near Kansas City). At the end of the afternoon we ended up getting on I-35 and making our way south toward Texas where we want to be for tomorrow. Check out the nice sunset in the image on the right from Oklahoma City!
Tomorrow we'll likely be somewhere around South Central Texas, where the dry line will be the focus for storm development. Moisture will be plentiful there since the front we chased near today will not have swept through Texas yet. The dry line will not be terribly sharp in the area in question tomorrow according to the 0z NAM model. We really want that sharp dry line so that it provides good lift for storm development, but we'll see how it pans out tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook has a Slight Risk for areas east of Fort Stockton tomorrow, but my hunch is that it may move east a little bit in their next outlook based on some of the data I've seen this evening. We'll look at the data tomorrow morning and I'll post on here once we're on the road!