Sunday, May 29, 2011

5/29 - 10:45am MDT - Upslope Storms, Part Deux

We're heading to Northeast Colorado/West Nebraska/Eastern Wyoming this morning for the second time in less than a week in search of upslope thunderstorms. Hopefully this run will be more successful than our attempt last week when the cap held on too tight and there were no storms (save for a weak one in West NE). The setup today is fairly classic for this area, with east winds already setting up across much of Northeast Colorado, West Nebraska, and Eastern Wyoming. These are the surface winds necessary to get the moist air to lift as the air moves west along the increasing elevation (scroll down to my 5/26 post to get a more detailed explanation).

Our major concern this morning has been the cloud shield, but it appears that it's clearing out pretty well to allow for the building of instability this afternoon. We're looking at a 5-6pm MDT timeframe when storms will fire across our target area as surface heating overcomes the cap (warm layer of inhibiting air aloft). A warm front pushing northward should help this process and increase dew points. Hopefully we'll get some supercells out of this today. With the east winds at the surface and southwest winds aloft, I'm inclined to think that we will as long as the cap doesn't hold too tight.

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