A Winter Weather ADVISORY has been issued by the Louisville NWS... in effect from 4AM to 1PM tomorrow.
Our clipper system is on the way right now, with rain showers to be falling after midnight tonight. These will quickly turn to snow as a cold front comes through early tomorrow morning. Right now, it looks like this will occur somewhere near the 6AM time period. With temperatures going below freezing at the surface just before that, I think any wet roads will quickly become icy. Snow should top out at just under an inch tomorrow, but we'll see what happens on the radar.
As far as school delays go, I think they're certainly possible given the circumstances. The morning rush after 6-7AM could be dicey with icy roads and low visibilities possible, but there is a little uncertainty as to the exact timing of this. Things should taper off by late morning, so closings are fairly unlikely. As far as who will actually delay tomorrow is unknown, so turn on the TV tomorrow before you head out or send the kids off to the bus stop.
Cold air will filter in behind the front tomorrow morning, so temperatures will drop throughout the day. Wednesday will not see temperatures rise above freezing, and more snow is on the way thanks to clipper system #2. Right now the models take this system well north of here with very limited moisture, meaning a couple tenths of an inch of snow at the most. The possible southward shift and increase in moisture I've been talking about for the last couple of days is getting less and less likely in each model run. Once the cold air comes in to the area tomorrow, we'll see if the models respond with a more southerly track with this system. Generally cooler air will shift a system like this southward, and right now the models take this storm further north than the one coming through tomorrow morning. That seems fishy to me.
So, I'm not sold on a northerly track for Wednesday's storm, but I'm starting to think that might be the solution based on the models. If the models keep with this track by tomorrow afternoon, then I'll throw in the towel with getting any appreciable snow on Wednesday. We shall see what happens.
3 comments:
RH- What are your gut thoughts for JCPS tomorrow morning? delay? cancelation?
Check the news tomorrow morning... I'd say no cancellation and a delay might be tough to come by.
Booo NWS!
Issuing a Winter Weather Advisory at 6pm for something that is forecast to occur 12 hours later is not a good business practice.
First, the whole idea of a WWA is to alert people to a minor winter weather problem. Which, are pretty hard to predict. In this morning's case, about 3 to 5 degrees too warm and all rain. A WWA should be issued when snow and winter problems are immanent, say a couple of hours away. I would assume that if they held off and looked over the situation before the 11 o'clock news and after the 00z model runs were in, they would have never issued. The fact that they kept the advisory in place until 6 this morning was ridiculous. Perhaps even a better idea would have been to look the situation over at 3am and then issue/not issue in time for the schools to make a decision and in plenty of time for the AM commute. The NWS used to be an intelligent organization. Now they hype just like everybody else. In one discussion earlier this winter, I read that they issued a WWA because the surrounding offices were doing it. What? My mother would have grabbed the NWS and told it, "If Paducah and Indy were going to jump off a bridge would you do it too?" I rest my case. They MUST get better!!!
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