(Photo Credit: Erin Davison)
More flooding problems could be on the way for areas on Nashville on the Cumberland River as it crests this afternoon. The death toll from this weekend's storms and flooding across Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi stands at 21.
As this weekend's weather event wraps up, we now turn to later this week in the Ohio Valley. The Storm Prediction Center put all of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia, along with parts of Michigan, Tennessee, Illinois, Missouri, and Pennsylvania in a 30% risk for severe weather on Friday:
Here's what the SPC is saying about this event on Friday:
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES. HERE...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE OPTIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR A LARGE-SCALE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
The GFS model seems to support these assertions with ample shear and the presence of upper-level divergence on the 500mb chart (causes uplift in the atmosphere... crucial for storm development):
The NAM model will chime in on this event tomorrow, which means we will have a better handle on what kind of instability and winds we'll be dealing with. I will say that moisture will not be a limiting factor for severe weather on Friday as dewpoints will most likely be in the 60's. There could be a few severe storms around the area on Thursday and Thursday night as the cold front with this system approaches the area, but limited shear will keep a lid on that potential.
The ironic thing about this Friday severe weather is that I'm leaving for Amarillo the next day to start my storm chasing trip. The start of the tornado season in the Plains has been very slow because of limited Gulf moisture, but now that temperatures in the Gulf have risen, I think things will begin to pick up pretty quickly. This week will be fairly quiet due to a west-east zonal flow across the US, but next week a disturbance in California will bring back the much-needed southwest winds to the Plains. Here's what the GFS is putting out for May 10th (my second day of storm chasing) in terms of instability and moisture: