Sunday, March 18, 2007

3/18 - 9am - Les orages viennent!!!

(The title is "The storms are coming!!!")

Ah, now I see a chance for some "real" thunderstorms. Saturday is the day, with some decent moisture too. I just peeked at the SPC's long range outlook and they said they can't predict anything past Thursday because "predictability is too low".

I then flipped my attention to the 6z GFS, which showed some thin bands of moisture screaming through here on Saturday. Rule of thumb: whenever you see small bands of moderate to heavy moisture on the GFS, those are probably squall lines or just normal lines of thunderstorms. This is because lines of violent storms tend to be very thin, so they don't cover a very large area in a day. This can be different though if the storms are moving at 60 mph, they can then cover a pretty good swath of land before they collapse and die out.

So anyway, we'll have to see if the SPC gets their act together and makes a prediction for Saturday. I think they see a pretty good outbreak on the way; the SPC just doesn't want to issue a forecast yet because it's too far out to tell where this outbreak will play out.

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