Wednesday, March 21, 2007

3/21 - 8pm - It's Barbeque Time!

The temperature soared to 75 degrees at my house today. It is the middle of March, it's supposed to be in the mid 60's. I'm tickled to death!

There were indications a few days ago that this warming trend would end in the beginning of next week. Scratch that! Let's try March 31st for an end date to this warming trend. At this time, a closed off low will scream through here and cool things down into the 40's for highs for a day or so. After about April 5th (-ish), we should be nearly seasonal on temperatures again. This is around the low to mid 60's.

A moderate chance for storms (far from severe) exists from Thursday to Saturday. These would be scattered storms with possibly a few small lines mixed in. The SPC has us in a 5% risk for severe weather, which is peanuts compared to what we've had already this year. In other words, don't let these storms scare you into canceling anything.

Oh yeah, according to the recent GFS run, I think we have a run at some 80 degree weather for next week. The 564 line goes above us as the heat builds on the 28th and 29th. Does this mean 80's? I think it does...

By the way, I don't have a very good way of forecasting temperatures yet. I've got moisture down with the GFS, NAM, etc., but I am in the process of finding a good way to forecast temperatures. I've been sort of winging it with the isobar lines on the GFS/NAM and looking at the NWS and others' forecasts. Again, it just shows that a real meteorologist needs a degree in meteorology! (I hope to have mine in a few years...)

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