3/28 - 7:30pm - Severe Weather Can't Make Up Mind...

Oh I am just confused as all get out at the moment. Yesterday there were indications that a large midwest severe weather outbreak would lend some energy for a risk here on Saturday. Alas, the CAPE model sucked a ton of that energy away from us today and the SPC adjusted their outlooks correspondingly. Darn, I wanted some video of the storm to show on my forecast video...

Of course it is very difficult to forecast severe weather terribly far out so this could change. I think we're close enough though that the CAPE and CIN won't change their minds too much between now and Saturday.

This morning was quite a show though! I was awakened at 12:30am to a huge clap of thunder that nearly bounced me out of my bed. Once I woke up at 5:40am (I know - it's early) for school I saw even more lightning. The most hilarious part was changing buses this morning; it down-poured the minute all the kids started switching buses. I was tempted to tell people to put down their big metal umbrellas too. With the intense frequency of the lightning I was sure that someone was going to become deep-fried due to their umbrella. Luckily that didn't play out.

Oh yeah, on top of all this crazy weather it's warm too! We could reach 80 again by the early part of next week. We're on borrowed time though as a large cool-down is in store. Highs after mid-next week will be in the 40's and 50's. Enjoy it while you can!

3/26 - 9:45pm - SPC is Making Me Look Bad!

Ha ha ha... I feel like I'm being joked on by someone (punk'd in today's terminology). Just a day after I put out a forecast video update saying, "any severe storms should break up over the Mississippi River," the SPC puts this out:



So yes, there is a severe risk in here for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. I think our best chance is late Thursday night, although the instability on Wednesday is pretty good too. Any limiting factors (CIN model) are very low at this point for these days. Our severe risk won't be as significant as the risk just west of the MS. River, but nevertheless I think we have a risk here. I think the SPC was waiting for the new CAPE models (measures atmospheric instability) to come out for the end of the week before they made their final judgment. So keep your eyes open!

3/13 - 9pm - What? Storms You Say?

Well, well, well. The SPC has put out a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow (afternoon). I got a look at the CAPE model, which shows instability in J/KG. It had some good instability in here for the right time. The CIN model, which shows LIMITING factors to instability was nearly blank for 18UTC, our prime time for severe weather. So, I think that the next output of SPC figures will expand the slight risk for tomorrow.

Earlier today I thought that it would be a small storm ("un petit l'orage" in French). There wasn't enough instability and moisture on the models. But now, things are looking a little hairier. I'm not saying there will be a massive outbreak of anything, but I think that some areas will see hail and some gusty winds. The lighting could be impressive also.

We must bid adieu to our warm weather for a week. We'll be in the 40's and 50's this weekend, and gradually rising through the 60's through next week. The 70's WILL return next weekend, and I see an indefinite end on that pattern (woo hoo!).