9/24 - 2pm - Ringing in Fall with Great Weather!

What a great day outside it is here at Mississippi State! We're still in the lower 70's at this hour and the dewpoint is staying low in the mid 40's too. This translates to a beautiful day with low humidity that's not terribly characteristic of September in Mississippi. Nevertheless, what great weather to ring in the first week of fall! Sunny skies will continue throughout most of the workweek but temperatures will rise through the 80's as we move forward. This change in temperature, and unfortunately an increase in humidity, will be due to a more southerly wind component coming into play that will bring us more moist air from the south. It's not looking like we'll hit 90 this week for a high at any point, but we could get close to it. A system pulling through by the weekend will increase our shower and storm chances a little bit by that point but it's not entirely clear when the best chances will be at this point. Check out my CampusConnect forecast below for all the details!

9/17 - 2pm - Tropical Rains Overtake Mississippi

Like heavy rain? Neither do I. That's what we have going on right now across most of Mississippi as an approaching cold front and a low moving onshore from the Gulf of Mexico are combining to give us a good soaking. The downpours and storms across the Golden Triangle area of Mississippi are definitely tropical in nature because moisture is streaming in right from the Gulf as the low pressure center out there continues to move our way. Storms will continue, and rain be at times heavier, this evening across the northeast quarter of Mississippi. Storms will remain likely tomorrow morning but thankfully the front will be moving through at that time and replace the rainy, tropical air with much more pleasant dry and cool air from the north. The middle of this week behind the front looks beautiful! Check out your full Mississippi State University CampusConnect forecast below for all the details on this week's forecast.



Like the new intro video and 5 Day Forecast background in the above forecast? I've been working on those graphics for the past few months and we're rolling them out today as we kick off the official start of our CampusConnect forecasts for the year here at MSU.

9/16 - 2:40pm - Rainy Start to the Week in West Tennessee

As promised, a few light showers are moving across West Tennessee and they will become more numerous and heavier this afternoon. Not everyone will see rain but those that do can expect some gentle rains with not much accumulation and possibly a clap of thunder. Tomorrow is a different story though as a larger, more potent upper-level disturbance moves through and generates heavier rains and possibly some thunderstorms. This will be a day when most folks see rain with some areas, especially closer to the Mississippi border, seeing over an inch of rainfall accumulation. Tuesday morning will feature some showers but the cold front at the surface that will be moving through with the upper-level disturbance should be moving east of the area throughout the day. The rain and clouds will be on their way out with the front, so expect the second half of your Tuesday to be much nicer than the first. Cooler temperatures behind the front mean highs in the mid 70's and lows possibly into the 40's by Wednesday morning. That's some fall-like weather right there! Check out my full forecast from last night's 10pm show on WBBJ below.



If you watched the video you probably saw some changes from previous ones that I've posted. WBBJ debuted an all-new HD weather graphics system that has full 3D rendering capabilities. It's very slick, easy to use, and most of all, fun! The 3D zooms to Jackson's tonight and tomorrow forecast I built from scratch between shows yesterday and it was pretty amazing what the machine could do with so little time.

This is also my 2nd anniversary with WBBJ. A lot has changed since I started working there in September 2010 but one thing that hasn't changed is how much I enjoy doing shows there! Can't wait to keep going back there on select weekends during this school year.

9/10 - 4pm - Cooler Weather to Stick Around!

The break in the heat across North Mississippi has made it hard to go back to work and school today but at least it's sticking around for awhile! 90 degrees is not in the forecast for Starkville and the Golden Triangle for the foreseeable future. What we do have in the forecast is sunny skies and temperatures only nudging into the upper 80's over the next couple of days. By the time we hit the weekend we'll increase shower chances a little bit since more moisture will be flowing in with more southerly winds, but it doesn't look like an all-day washout. A reinforcing shot of cool air could make it as far south as Starkville by the start of next week. Your latest detailed CampusConnect forecast is just a click away in the video below!

9/5 - 11:35pm - Stormy Week, Cooler Weekend, and TV Tomorrow!

It's been a stormy day across West Tennessee and North Mississippi as a complex of storms moved through the region this evening generating multiple instances of severe wind. The storms that caused these are still moving southeastward through Northeast Mississippi but have lost their severe punch. Even though it appears these storms will miss Starkville and the Golden Triangle in Mississippi there is the possibility that an isolated storm or two will try to form off the western end of these tonight.

Storms will once again be a possibility tomorrow but they shouldn't be as potent or widespread. We'll have the moist, warm air in place to fuel storms but there won't be any real trigger besides a small upper-level disturbance or two that could try to form and move through. Friday night will be the best chance for storms in the near future though as a cold front sweeps through West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Since these storms will move through earlier in the evening across West Tennessee there is the possibility of a few of these going severe. The chance for severe weather decreases as you move southward into North Mississippi thanks to the later timing during Friday night that they'll be moving through. Will the rain be out of the picture in time for the Mississippi State/Auburn game on Saturday at 11am here in Starkville? It looks like that may be the case at this point but it's too far out to know for certain since the front will be exiting the region sometime during the morning. The big story instead of the storms will be the much cooler, much drier air behind the cold front. We're talking about highs in the upper 70's this weekend in West Tennessee and highs in the lower 80's across North Mississippi, both with low humidity. What a change! We just have to get through a Thursday and Friday full of the deplorable heat and humidity we've seen lately before the wonderful weekend weather arrives.

Looking for something to do tomorrow night? On the Travel Channel at 10 pm/9c tomorrow night a show called Extreme Tours will be airing and the first segment of the show will feature me and my pals at Storm Chasing Adventure Tours! A crew from the show came out to film and interview us as we chased this past spring in New Mexico and their footage along with clips from my library of tornado video will be airing. This program will showcase what we do as a tour group and how we make it happen. Quite a few of our tour guests and tour guides were interviewed for this and the camera crew that came rode along with us for a few hours. I did a sit-down interview with them along with an extensive round of showing off our vehicles and equipment. This should be a good show tomorrow and I'm certainly looking forward to my first appearance on a non-news national TV program! If you can't make it home in time to watch tomorrow be sure to set your DVR.

8/27 - 9:30pm - Update on Isaac's Expected Gulf Coast Landfall

Tropical Storm Isaac is teetering on the edge of becoming a hurricane this evening with winds of 70 mph as of this writing. The threshold for a Category 1 hurricane is 74 mph. The storm motion has slowed down over the past few hours, now moving northwest at only 10 mph. Issac continues to run into issues that prevent it from rapid intensification, which is certainly good news. The latest issue is a batch of dry air that is currently being pulled into the center of the storm. Without an uninhibited source of moist air the storm cannot form a defined eye or intensify very well. The dry air is why Isaac is lopsided right now with most of the intense winds on the south side.

How long will it be until this dry air is finished working through the storm? Probably a few more hours, possibly lasting into the early morning hours tomorrow if current model forecasts are correct. Speaking of models, the current track from the National Hurricane Center takes Isaac right into the Eastern Louisiana/Mississippi Coast areas late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning as a weak Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. With the lack of organization we're seeing right now it may only be a Category 1 at landfall. The latest computer model tracks, the spaghetti plots as you've probably heard about and seen over the past few days, have tightened up on a landfall location somewhere around New Orleans. It's worth noting that some of these models are now trending eastward after a massive amount of successive westward jogs in recent days. It doesn't appear that this landfall will take place further east than Biloxi, Mississippi given the current motion of the storm and model data, but the exact landfall location won't be the big story with this storm.

Storm surge exceedance probabilities

The big story here is how big and how slow this storm is. Sure, there will be some wind damage along the coast as the storm makes landfall, but the large area that Isaac covers means that quite an expansive area along the Gulf Coast will experience other effects from it. Storm surge at or above ten feet is possible in locations from New Orleans to Pascagoula, MS and rainfall amounts over a foot are forecast over much of Central and Southern Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana. Isaac will slow down even more than its current speed once it gets over land so heavy rain will be a good bet across much of the Gulf Coast states until we get into the weekend. Inland flooding will be a problem with the deluge that Isaac with unleash on the region as it crawls northward.

Rainfall through 7pm CDT Saturday

As far as local effects in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, Isaac will bring very heavy rain and winds with gusts in some cases near 40 mph. Starkville, MS may be looking at a six or more inch rainfall scenario through Saturday evening and areas in West Tennessee like Jackson will likely see more than three inches of rain. This highly depends on Isaac's exact track so some areas will see much more rain than others.

With just about any landfalling hurricane you can expect the threat of isolated tornadoes, and Isaac will be no different. The turning of winds with height in a hurricane or tropical storm create favorable wind shear for tornadoes to form in stronger parts of it. Due to this potential threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for most of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.


So overall we're not looking at Isaac to be a major hurricane at landfall, but the effects from it will be widespread due to it's large size. It's a good thing that folks in a wide area are preparing for this storm since it could be a long haul given the slow motion that's expected from it.

8/23 - 5pm - Tropics, Drought, Storms... Anything Else?

Computer model forecast tracks for Isaac

The big shakeup in the world of weather right now is the presence of Tropical Storm Isaac south of Puerto Rico. Much uncertainty still exists with where the storm will go but certainty of it making some sort of US landfall is growing. Current forecast data from multiple computer models has this storm going anywhere from the eastern Florida Peninsula to the Central Gulf over the coming days. The trend has been for these forecast tracks to shift westward over the past couple days and that means that those with interests along the Gulf Coast need to watch this storm extremely carefully. The fact that this storm may miss most of Hispanola and it's rough terrain means that we could have a stronger storm than previously expected by the time it reaches the Gulf. Once we get some better data tonight from a NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft that is being dispatched to take measurements of the storm the model data and forecasts should improve a bit.

The 5pm EDT National Hurricane Center update on Isaac has again taken a more westerly track than before thanks to the latest model data. Their forecast has Isaac remaining a tropical storm until it clears the north side of Cuba on Monday and becomes a hurricane. This all depends on where the storm tracks because the less of Cuba and Hispanola it goes over, the more time over warm water it will have. Should the storm remain weak like it is now for a longer period, a more westerly track can be expected.

How 'bout the drought? Not much has changed from last week's drought monitor product for West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Much of West Tennessee is still suffering from a severe to exceptional drought, especially in areas near the Mississippi River and Kentucky border. The area of exceptional drought, the highest level possible, has contracted a bit since last week. Areas south of Benton County and east of Bolivar aren't faring as badly as the rest of West Tennessee, but it's worth noting that rain may be hard to come by over the next week. The worst of North Mississippi's drought is still confined to areas near Tunica and areas south of West Point don't have drought conditions at this time.

Speaking of rain, we're looking at just a small chance for some isolated showers and storms on Saturday afternoon in North Mississippi as an upper-level system moves toward us from the west. This will increase our moisture and instability a touch since winds will be turning more southerly at the surface. West Tennessee will be too far north for this storm chance unfortunately. Small storm chances will be in the forecast again as we head into the early part of the workweek, but uncertainly skyrockets after that because our weather will depend on where Isaac, by then likely a hurricane, will go. A more westerly landfall along the Gulf Coast would mean quite a bit of rain for the region while a more easterly landfall in Florida wouldn't affect us too much. This again is something we'll need to watch.