Thursday, December 17, 2009

12/17 - 12pm - Louisville Snow Chances Increasing!

This weekend's snow has really cranked up on the computer models over the past 24 hours. Moisture on both the NAM and GFS has increased considerably, meaning we could be left with over two inches of snow by Sunday night. The combination of the coastal winter storm giving us some outlying snow and the round of clipper systems from Canada should be beneficial for snow totals, but I'm just a little worried about surface temperatures. I think we'll top out at 33 or 34 on Saturday, which should be when the bulk of the snow is falling. This will melt things a little bit, but I think things will cool down quickly at night and snow will still be falling. A little burst of snow on Sunday should top off our accumulations of 2 or more inches.

The Christmas Eve storm is still up in the air at this point, but I think our chances are getting better for an accumulating snow. The 6z run of the GFS had the storm going to our south (that's good for snow here) and put down over 5 inches of snow. The 12z has a strange solution with mostly snow here, but the low pressure associated with the storm takes an odd path northward to Tennessee then cuts east. We'll see how this track goes, but I think the fact that the storm is still on the computer models and that there is a potential track that favors snow for us is a good thing.

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