Thursday, February 15, 2007

More Drama...

Here it is point blank: there is a clipper system coming on Saturday. Snows could be anywhere from nothing to 4 inches. What a range, isn't it?

Today's models are taking this thing south and are keeping it there. The GFS wants a Whopper snow (2-4"), whereas the NAM opts for a Junior Whopper with Cheese (1-2"). Our good Mountie weather model in Canada is leaning toward the GFS solution with the low pressure tracking south of Louisville (South of Louisville=Snow, North of Louisville=Little or no snow).

This is 48 hours away and there is no consensus. With 21st century innovations like the quad-core processor, iPhone and such, you would think we would have a good grip on the weather for 2 days out. Sadly, this is not the case.

Anyway, the NAM has been good on the last storms, but there are more and more models starting to side with the GFS on this one. The NAM may submit to the GFS-like situation tomorrow I think. Sadly, I think this is our very last chance for winter snow at the moment.

Why? Well, there is a huge warm up next week that will put us in the 50 degree range and maybe even 60 later on. I don't think we will pull out of this either. By the time this pattern breaks, it might be too late for snow (although there are signs it could break in early March). The only exception would be on the 26th possibly, with a hellacious trough coming through that could bring heavy rain. On the backside of this storm at night, it will be very cold and moisture will still be plentiful unlike the last storm. This is just so far out and so warm though, I don't think anything will happen snow wise unless the trough is really packin' a punch.

Keep watch on Saturday, I think this could be our singular snow event for the season.

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