Saturday, January 2, 2010

1/2 - 7pm - Snow Chances Going Up!

Snow chances are on the rise as confidence and agreement among the computer models increases for next week. Right now it looks like snow could fall from Chicago to Mississippi on Thursday. With cold air in place, problems with ice or rain look very unlikely for all points north of Central Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. As far as snowfall totals go, I think we could see some fairly impressive numbers come out of this system. The GFS model had been very conservative with precipitation amounts up until the 18z run this afternoon, which mirrors the ECMWF (Euro) more closely with increased precipitation (I do not have access to precipitation amounts for the ECMWF, but local NWS discussions highlighted what was going on with this model). I would say that Louisville could get 3 to 5 inches of snow out of this system if the GFS keeps this trend up. Remember that it will be very cold when the precipitation reaches the area, so liquid rain to snow conversion ratios will be much higher.

I'm heading back to Mississippi State on Monday, and this same system may spread snow across the northern half of the state on Thursday! I was a bit worried that it may not be cold enough down there for this system to stay all snow, but the GFS and Euro have been consistent in keeping things cold enough for snow north of I-20. The current 18z GFS run spits out over 4 inches of snow for the Starkville, Columbus, West Point area, so we may see a good accumulating snow if things keep up on the models. 4 inches may be a little too optimistic, but I'd say at least an inch or two. There's certainly room for things to change between now and Thursday, but I think chances are getting better for snow in Mississippi. We'll see how it goes!

No comments: