2/28 - 10pm - Snow Showers Possible in MS This Weekend

As cooler air filters in overnight we'll see chilly temperatures tomorrow morning in Starkville along with cloudy skies. A disturbance rotating through the backside of a large low pressure area over the Eastern US will give us a shot at some flurries and snow showers late Friday night into the morning on Saturday. Just like a couple weekends ago, there could be some flurries flying at the MSU baseball game on Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will begin to warm a bit on Sunday and eventually we'll get all the way into the 60's for the new workweek. Your full Mississippi State CampusConnect forecast is in the video below!

2/19 - 11:30pm - Strong Storms in Mississippi Later This Week

After a nice warm day in Starkville we're gearing up for a cooler, cloudier day tomorrow before storms set in on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather on Thursday for areas southwest of Starkville. We're right on the fringe of it. Since moisture return and instability look rather limited, the potential in the Golden Triangle for severe weather will be fairly marginal and centered around gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. It's certainly something to watch though. Rain should clear out for the weekend and leave us with a warm and partly cloudy stretch of weather. Check out the video below for all the details!

2/14 - 11:55pm - A Curveball Forecast for MSU Baseball

Ready for some baseball? Tomorrow marks the start of the collegiate baseball season here at Mississippi State and the weather will cooperate... for some of the games this weekend. Friday looks good with temperatures in the mid 50's and partly cloudy skies but unfortunately a cold snap on Saturday will bring the chill for the game on Saturday as temperatures only reach into the mid 40's. Look for a bit of recovery for Sunday's double-header games. Next week brings us more rain as we're just drying out from all the rain we had earlier this week. Yuck. The only redeeming value to this will be the warmer temperatures that will accompany the system generating the rain. Get your full Mississippi State forecast in the video below!

2/5 - 10:30pm - Dense Fog Tonight

Dense fog is already beginning to develop across North Mississippi and West Tennessee as temperatures fall for the overnight hours. A Dense Fog Advisory (see right image) has just been issued for the entire region until 9am CST since visibility could drop below a quarter mile at times. Please be careful as you're out and about in the early morning because this fog will make it difficult to see cars in front of you where it's the most dense. As we mix out the fog later on in the morning we should be left with a beautiful day and clear to partly cloudy skies. Highs tomorrow could reach into the upper 60's in a few spots! As we head into tomorrow night clouds will be on the increase but by Thursday rain moves in. The rain will stick around through some of Friday as well but at least we'll get a break by Saturday. More rain... just what we needed around here, right? Check out the video below for your complete CampusConnect forecast!

1/31 - 11:15pm - Snowy to Our North, but Clear Here!

An Alberta Clipper system moving through the Lower Ohio Valley is spreading snow all the way down to I-40 in Tennessee this evening. Those of you in Starkville hoping we might get some flakes tonight will be disappointed to know that this system is running out of steam over the Jackson, TN area and will have trouble even generating any clouds for us this evening. Behind the cold front associated with this Clipper is some cooler air that will be working in overnight. This means we'll get down into the mid 20's by morning in the Golden Triangle and only reach into the lower 40's for highs tomorrow. Ouch! Luckily we'll have full sunshine as we end the workweek but a few showers are poised to move through the area for the early half of Saturday. Check out the video below for your detailed CampusConnect forecast!

1/30 - 7pm - Fulfilling a Childhood Dream in Weather and Television

Watch the video for Ryan's big announcement!

Back in the mid 90's I began having a fascination with weather thanks to my childhood fear of thunderstorms. In particular I can remember going to the basement for the storm that eventually generated the May 28th, 1996 tornado in parts of Jefferson, Bullitt, and Spencer Counties in Kentucky near the Louisville area. The TV was turned up loud so we could hear it from the basement and the voice I remember was John Belski's, who was chief meteorologist at WAVE 3 TV in Louisville. His was a calming voice in the middle of the chaos that was going on outside as this supercell storm moved through town. As I watched him after Jefferson County was cleared from the tornado warning I realized that he had the coolest job in the world. He worked with computers (check!), forecast weather events (check!), got to talk to lots of people everyday (check!), and most importantly saved lives during severe weather with his information (double check!).

While other childhood dreams came and went, this particular fascination with weather and my desire to get a degree in meteorology never fluctuated. In middle school I had finally made up my mind that becoming a meteorologist would be the ultimate end game for me. Since then I've been working every single day to make sure that I could become the best meteorologist that I could be. WAVE 3 was a huge part of this because John Belski and others would routinely post things on the Internet that I could learn from. I grew to really enjoy watching this station as a student because the meteorologists who worked there were different. They each knew the area very well, used sound science in their forecasting, and most importantly, had a passion for weather I've not seen anywhere else. This hasn't changed.

I was fortunate enough to intern with Kevin Harned, Brian Goode, and the rest of the WAVE 3 Storm Tracking Team over the summer and quickly realized that Louisville and WAVE were still home to me. I know a lot of people like to leave home once they go to college and into a career but after seeing so many different places in my years of storm chasing, working in TV, and going to college I found that the best one for me is right at home in Kentuckiana. But never did I think that I would be able to return there so quickly.

That's right. If you haven't guessed it yet (or watched the video at the top of this post), I'm announcing today that my childhood dream of becoming a meteorologist in Louisville at WAVE-TV will become a reality in late May after I graduate from Mississippi State. The position I've accepted has me as a meteorologist on WAVE 3 Sunrise Saturday and a social media and marketing graphic artist for the rest of the week while still assisting the Storm Tracking Team in their online offerings. This brings the number of hometown meteorologists on the WAVE 3 Storm Tracking Team to 6. Yes, 6! That's an astounding amount of resources for a TV station and it's only going to aid in serving up the best weather forecasts and information for Kentuckiana. This is a fantastic opportunity and I'm still trying to comprehend just how amazing it is. I'm looking forward to being back home in my city, my Louisville, and doing what I love most. Thanks to all who've supported me over the years. This is big stuff!

1/29 - 5:45pm - Serious Severe Weather Concerns Tonight

Latest Severe Weather Updates

Tweets by @RyanHoke

A severe weather setup that we see normally in the springtime is about to unfold on this late January night across a large expanse of the Southeast. While not "unprecedented" or "once-in-a-lifetime", this outbreak is going to impact quite a few people and it's important that everyone have what they need to be prepared and safe. This post is mainly for folks in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, but you can figure out pretty well how you'll be affected if you're not in these areas by some of the maps and information below. Everyone needs to be aware of what's going on because this will be happening at a very bad time of night when even the night owls are asleep.

Fast Facts

A MODERATE Risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the overnight hours in West Tennessee and most of North Mississippi. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all on the table for these areas as storms move through. Even though places like the Golden Triangle in Mississippi are just outside of the Moderate Risk area I would treat this as if you were in it because these storms are going to be very, very strong still as they move through this region. Please, please, please have a weather radio or smartphone app that's armed and ready to alert you if a Tornado Warning is issued for your location tonight. This will be hitting when most people are asleep so it's a very dangerous situation.

Timing - North MS and West TN

8pm - Midnight - Small chance for some isolated storms. These would carry a tornado, wind, and hail threat.

Midnight - 2am - Slightly better chance for isolated storms, small line of storms may try to form ahead of main line.

2am - 7am - Main line of severe thunderstorms moves through. This will affect everyone. Tornadoes, severe damaging winds, and hail are a good bet during this time.

Discussion

A line of storms stretches from the Great Lakes to Texas right now and will continue to move eastward through the evening. A few reports of severe weather have come in already from this but the main show will be overnight as this line of storms encounters a more rich environment for severe weather.

The main storm mode for tonight will be a squall line of storms with embedded rotation in portions of it (AKA what's termed a QLCS). Supercell storms will be possible ahead of the main line of storms too and could easily produce tornadoes if they develop. Tornadoes in QLCS lines of storms like the one we'll have tonight are more difficult to identify on radar since they're embedded within the line. While not as strong as supercell tornadoes, QLCS tornadoes can be strong and cause massive damage in the right environment.

While directional shear, which is needed to produce tornadoes, isn't very good for this event, the speed shear or tendency for winds to increase in speed with height will be very good. But, the directional shear may just be enough to cause problems. When you combine helicity (caused by shear) with instability in a formula you get what's called the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). This, in my mind, is a good determinant of tornado ingredients in an environment. The NAM model has increased levels of the EHI throughout West Tennessee and Mississippi tonight as this squall line is moving through so these QLCS tornadoes may have some kick to them if they develop. Not good news at all.


Also, since winds at 850 mb (about 5,000 feet) will be howling it will not take much for any part of this line of storms to pull these winds down to the surface and create straight-line wind damage. I wouldn't be surprised if folks affected by the worst of these winds thought they were hit by a tornado. I'm hearing the word Derecho being thrown around a bit with regard to how this system will develop tonight. That's certainly a possibility with this system but I think it's a relatively small chance.

One more thing to mention, and this is not the least important at all, is the fact that moisture and warm air continues to stream in from the south in advance of this system. When the dry line that's triggering these storms hits this richer air tonight you'll know. The whole line of storms should really begin to light up by then. Having air this warm and moist in January is never a good thing because Mother Nature intends to correct it in a violent way.

Follow me on Twitter and my Facebook page for the latest updates tonight!