The number zero will be popping up on thermometers across the area tonight as this cold trough sticks around. I think the inner-city areas will stay a touch above zero, but I think the rest of town will get down to zero or very close to it tonight. Wind chills will be near -10 (Wind Chill Advisory in effect), so bundle up tomorrow morning as you head out. Tomorrow's high will be a degree or two cooler than today, so we should end up around 16 by the afternoon.
A warmer weekend (if you want to call this warmer) is in store, with the possibility of barely getting above freezing. It still looks good for a few flurries on Sunday morning, but I think we'll be moisture starved for at least the early part of next week. Warmer temperatures should return by that point as well.
Keep those hats and gloves on!
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
1/14 - 5:30pm - Courier-Journal Article, A Little Snow
I was featured in the Southeast Neighborhoods section of the Courier-Journal today, click here to read the article. Also, they did a short video montage of how I do my videos and what my normal Saturday afternoon is like:
Snow is on the way in the next half hour as a small batch of heavy snow comes through from Harrison County. Temperatures will drop significantly during and behind this small area of snow, so we could pick up a dusting or so. We're around 40 right now, but 20s are easy to find as you go west of here, especially in St. Louis.
The cold air behind this system will be intense, with a high of only 15 tomorrow! We'll recover a little bit this weekend, with highs getting just above freezing and the possibility of flurries.
Snow is on the way in the next half hour as a small batch of heavy snow comes through from Harrison County. Temperatures will drop significantly during and behind this small area of snow, so we could pick up a dusting or so. We're around 40 right now, but 20s are easy to find as you go west of here, especially in St. Louis.
The cold air behind this system will be intense, with a high of only 15 tomorrow! We'll recover a little bit this weekend, with highs getting just above freezing and the possibility of flurries.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
1/13 - 3:45pm - Cold Air Settles In
The morning rush hour and the rest of the day were spared from icy conditions due to a later passing of the cold front this morning. Limited backside moisture also decreased the amount of snow showers we saw as well. Overall, we were pretty lucky that the front didn't come through earlier and cause a flash-freeze situation on the roads.
Our next clipper system comes through on Wednesday afternoon, giving us a chance for a little more snow throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Since the low will be tracking north of the area, don't expect much in the way of accumulation, if any at all. A couple models started putting the storm on a more southerly track last night, but they haven't put it far enough south to make a big difference here. Places north of Indianapolis will see a few inches of snow.
Cold temperatures are staying around for a while, with a high in the mid 30s tomorrow. By Thursday and Friday, temperatures won't even reach 20 degrees for a high! Lows for both of those days will most likely be in the single digits. Stay warm!
Our next clipper system comes through on Wednesday afternoon, giving us a chance for a little more snow throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Since the low will be tracking north of the area, don't expect much in the way of accumulation, if any at all. A couple models started putting the storm on a more southerly track last night, but they haven't put it far enough south to make a big difference here. Places north of Indianapolis will see a few inches of snow.
Cold temperatures are staying around for a while, with a high in the mid 30s tomorrow. By Thursday and Friday, temperatures won't even reach 20 degrees for a high! Lows for both of those days will most likely be in the single digits. Stay warm!
Monday, January 12, 2009
1/12 - 7pm - Winter Weather ADVISORY
A Winter Weather ADVISORY has been issued by the Louisville NWS... in effect from 4AM to 1PM tomorrow.
Our clipper system is on the way right now, with rain showers to be falling after midnight tonight. These will quickly turn to snow as a cold front comes through early tomorrow morning. Right now, it looks like this will occur somewhere near the 6AM time period. With temperatures going below freezing at the surface just before that, I think any wet roads will quickly become icy. Snow should top out at just under an inch tomorrow, but we'll see what happens on the radar.
As far as school delays go, I think they're certainly possible given the circumstances. The morning rush after 6-7AM could be dicey with icy roads and low visibilities possible, but there is a little uncertainty as to the exact timing of this. Things should taper off by late morning, so closings are fairly unlikely. As far as who will actually delay tomorrow is unknown, so turn on the TV tomorrow before you head out or send the kids off to the bus stop.
Cold air will filter in behind the front tomorrow morning, so temperatures will drop throughout the day. Wednesday will not see temperatures rise above freezing, and more snow is on the way thanks to clipper system #2. Right now the models take this system well north of here with very limited moisture, meaning a couple tenths of an inch of snow at the most. The possible southward shift and increase in moisture I've been talking about for the last couple of days is getting less and less likely in each model run. Once the cold air comes in to the area tomorrow, we'll see if the models respond with a more southerly track with this system. Generally cooler air will shift a system like this southward, and right now the models take this storm further north than the one coming through tomorrow morning. That seems fishy to me.
So, I'm not sold on a northerly track for Wednesday's storm, but I'm starting to think that might be the solution based on the models. If the models keep with this track by tomorrow afternoon, then I'll throw in the towel with getting any appreciable snow on Wednesday. We shall see what happens.
Our clipper system is on the way right now, with rain showers to be falling after midnight tonight. These will quickly turn to snow as a cold front comes through early tomorrow morning. Right now, it looks like this will occur somewhere near the 6AM time period. With temperatures going below freezing at the surface just before that, I think any wet roads will quickly become icy. Snow should top out at just under an inch tomorrow, but we'll see what happens on the radar.
As far as school delays go, I think they're certainly possible given the circumstances. The morning rush after 6-7AM could be dicey with icy roads and low visibilities possible, but there is a little uncertainty as to the exact timing of this. Things should taper off by late morning, so closings are fairly unlikely. As far as who will actually delay tomorrow is unknown, so turn on the TV tomorrow before you head out or send the kids off to the bus stop.
Cold air will filter in behind the front tomorrow morning, so temperatures will drop throughout the day. Wednesday will not see temperatures rise above freezing, and more snow is on the way thanks to clipper system #2. Right now the models take this system well north of here with very limited moisture, meaning a couple tenths of an inch of snow at the most. The possible southward shift and increase in moisture I've been talking about for the last couple of days is getting less and less likely in each model run. Once the cold air comes in to the area tomorrow, we'll see if the models respond with a more southerly track with this system. Generally cooler air will shift a system like this southward, and right now the models take this storm further north than the one coming through tomorrow morning. That seems fishy to me.
So, I'm not sold on a northerly track for Wednesday's storm, but I'm starting to think that might be the solution based on the models. If the models keep with this track by tomorrow afternoon, then I'll throw in the towel with getting any appreciable snow on Wednesday. We shall see what happens.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
1/10 - 3:30pm - New Forecast Video
Temperatures are set to slide later today, but this is only the beginning of an active weather week. Light snow associated with a clipper system will fall on Monday, with a possibly bigger system on Wednesday. The models are handling the Wednesday clipper poorly in my opinion, so we could see more than just light snow. That remains to be seen in any of the computer models, so we'll see how that works out. In any case, get ready for frigid temperatures late next week as a massive trough digs into the Southeast. Highs might struggle to reach the teens by next weekend.
Friday, January 9, 2009
1/9 - 3:30pm - Nice Warm Up Today... Enjoy It While You Can!
After barely getting above freezing yesterday, today's temperatures have felt great. Even though we had some wind in the afternoon hours, 45 isn't too bad for this time of year! Get ready for rain late tonight and into tomorrow as clipper system #1 comes through the region. A few snow showers are possible late tomorrow evening as this system exits the area.
The second clipper will come through on Monday night into Tuesday:
(Click image to see a larger view)
The past few runs of the GFS model have been trending toward rain at the beginning of this system, but as you can see in the 12z run above (at 96 hours out) this will end as some snow on the cold backside. Accumulations will be light, but I think we might be able to squeeze out an inch or slightly more by the time this is done on Tuesday.
Our third clipper will be here for Wednesday night into Thursday:
The models show light precipitation from that now, but I think this might be an underestimate. With a powerful cold front like this coming through and Gulf Moisture present in the south, I'm not sold on the lightness of the moisture that the GFS shows above. Give this one some time... the elements are there for a storm. With the very cold air in place behind this front, rain/snow conversion ratios will be higher (see yesterday's post for more on that).
After these three systems are done, extremely cold air will set in with a mighty trough sinking from Canada. Here's what the Louisville NWS says about it:
The second clipper will come through on Monday night into Tuesday:
(Click image to see a larger view)
The past few runs of the GFS model have been trending toward rain at the beginning of this system, but as you can see in the 12z run above (at 96 hours out) this will end as some snow on the cold backside. Accumulations will be light, but I think we might be able to squeeze out an inch or slightly more by the time this is done on Tuesday.
Our third clipper will be here for Wednesday night into Thursday:
The models show light precipitation from that now, but I think this might be an underestimate. With a powerful cold front like this coming through and Gulf Moisture present in the south, I'm not sold on the lightness of the moisture that the GFS shows above. Give this one some time... the elements are there for a storm. With the very cold air in place behind this front, rain/snow conversion ratios will be higher (see yesterday's post for more on that).
After these three systems are done, extremely cold air will set in with a mighty trough sinking from Canada. Here's what the Louisville NWS says about it:
SUPER LARGE 1050+ HIGH PRESSURE CELL LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...VERY COLD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED/THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SOME 25 TO 30 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND THE COLDEST TEMPS WITHIN THE LAST 10+ YEARS. BRRRR!Dry weather will dominate with this super-cold air. So, we need to get snow with either the Tuesday or Wednesday clippers before this dry air comes in (that is, if you want snow).
Thursday, January 8, 2009
1/8 - 6pm - The Cold is Coming, Maybe Snow?
Welcome Belski's Blog readers! Be sure to visit ryanweather.org for the full Ryan Weather website.
It's been bitterly cold across the metro today, with a high temperature just above freezing at midnight. We've been falling since then and winds picked up this afternoon, so there was definitely a sub-20 degree windchill to deal with. Temperatures will rise into the 40s tomorrow as an area of low pressure approaches the area. Accompanying this low will be some rain for late Friday into Saturday. Highs for the weekend will stay just below 40 with a few flurries or snow showers possible as the area of low pressure exits the area.
The super-cold air that has been well-publicized over the past week is still coming, but it's up in the air as to when it will really get here. Here's the interesting part: The models are injecting more moisture into this pattern. As I said yesterday, the GFS has a history (at least this season) of underestimating moisture in the long range. A couple clipper systems will come through early in the week, but it's difficult to tell which of these would give us snow. My thinking right now is that the Monday clipper will be too far north to give us any snow, but the Tuesday one might be right on the money for an accumulating snow. The last couple runs of the GFS are delaying the cold air until Thursday, but I still think that's up in the air due to low placement and phasing issues.
Is there the potential for a big storm in all of this? Yes. Do I see a definite large storm in the cards yet? Absolutely not.
The development in the models of this cold pattern needs more time to mature. There was a large storm on the GFS just days ago with the entrance of this cold air on Tuesday, but it has since reverted back into a normal clipper. This is definitely something to watch, especially if a storm like this pops up again with the later arrival of the cold air on Thursday.
At any rate, any snow that falls will be heavier in the upcoming cold air next week due to conversion ratios. Snow at 28-32 degrees has a conversion ratio of around 10:1, meaning for every .1" of rain there exists a potential for 1" of snow. When we have temperatures in the mid 20's or lower, that ratio could go up to 15:1 or higher. That means any weak system could put down some very nice snow amounts! We'll see what happens over the next few days with this cold air and potential snow.
It's been bitterly cold across the metro today, with a high temperature just above freezing at midnight. We've been falling since then and winds picked up this afternoon, so there was definitely a sub-20 degree windchill to deal with. Temperatures will rise into the 40s tomorrow as an area of low pressure approaches the area. Accompanying this low will be some rain for late Friday into Saturday. Highs for the weekend will stay just below 40 with a few flurries or snow showers possible as the area of low pressure exits the area.
The super-cold air that has been well-publicized over the past week is still coming, but it's up in the air as to when it will really get here. Here's the interesting part: The models are injecting more moisture into this pattern. As I said yesterday, the GFS has a history (at least this season) of underestimating moisture in the long range. A couple clipper systems will come through early in the week, but it's difficult to tell which of these would give us snow. My thinking right now is that the Monday clipper will be too far north to give us any snow, but the Tuesday one might be right on the money for an accumulating snow. The last couple runs of the GFS are delaying the cold air until Thursday, but I still think that's up in the air due to low placement and phasing issues.
Is there the potential for a big storm in all of this? Yes. Do I see a definite large storm in the cards yet? Absolutely not.
The development in the models of this cold pattern needs more time to mature. There was a large storm on the GFS just days ago with the entrance of this cold air on Tuesday, but it has since reverted back into a normal clipper. This is definitely something to watch, especially if a storm like this pops up again with the later arrival of the cold air on Thursday.
At any rate, any snow that falls will be heavier in the upcoming cold air next week due to conversion ratios. Snow at 28-32 degrees has a conversion ratio of around 10:1, meaning for every .1" of rain there exists a potential for 1" of snow. When we have temperatures in the mid 20's or lower, that ratio could go up to 15:1 or higher. That means any weak system could put down some very nice snow amounts! We'll see what happens over the next few days with this cold air and potential snow.
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