Thursday, February 11, 2010

2/11 - 3pm - Southern Snow on the Way!

A major winter storm is on track to affect much of Mississippi this evening and tomorrow. The 12z GFS and NAM models have about 2 inches of snow for Starkville by the time this is all said and done. The 18z NAM that just came out lowered totals quite a bit, but I've noticed at least three times this season when the NAM fluctuated moisture placement just prior to a storm hitting an area. In other words, I'll stick with the 12z suite of models because they were in agreement and made the most sense. Here's a map of the 12z GFS's snow totals:

You'll notice how we're on the north end of the good snow accumulations, so any northward movement of this storm would significantly increase snow totals. We're in the 2-3 inch range on this specific output. Areas south of Jackson could receive up to 9 inches of snow in some spots, with 4-6 inch amounts common near I-20.

This storm is already crossing the border into Mississippi as we speak, so we're getting very close to the time where we throw out the models and start looking at radar trends:

Again, my forecast calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow. Should this change, I'll post here on the blog, on Facebook, and on Twitter as well.

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