I know many of us here in Kentuckiana are waiting for the first big snow of the season. While we generally don't see much snow around Louisville in December, the pattern right now in my opinion is very ripe for an early season snowfall. The long range computer models (GFS & Euro) heat things up this weekend and early next week, but temperatures quickly turn downhill again by the middle of next week. We may even see a small bit of snow next weekend with a possible clipper system. The southern storm track, the one that brings most of our snowfall, has been and will continue to be very active throughout the arrival of this new batch of arctic air next week. Receiving snow in Louisville is all about timing, which means we have to have an abundance of cold air in place as a low pressure system tracks to our south and east, preferably along the mountains of Eastern Kentucky. Having one of these components out of place would mean rain or ice for us here in Louisville.
Many have asked: Does it look like we'll have a white Christmas? The answer is
maybe. The possibility for light snow between now and the 25th looks pretty good right now, but getting a big storm in here will be tough. The GFS computer model has been hinting at some sort of snow event around Christmas for a couple days now, but accuracy that far out is very low. I'd say our chances for a white Christmas are probably the best since 2004, when we had a crippling snow/sleet system dump over a foot of snow in Louisville and Southern Indiana on the 22nd and 23rd of December. Just keep in mind that the pattern is ripe for snow, but that the specifics are blurry at this point.
If you're desperate to see some snow, head across the Ohio River to Paoli Peaks in Southern Indiana. They've been able to generate enough machine-made snow to open for skiing this weekend and they should be able to keep that snow on the ground through the warm spell we'll see early next week. Guess it's time to hit the slopes!
This weekend's snow has really cranked up on the computer models over the past 24 hours. Moisture on both the NAM and GFS has increased considerably, meaning we could be left with over two inches of snow by Sunday night. The combination of the coastal winter storm giving us some outlying snow and the round of clipper systems from Canada should be beneficial for snow totals, but I'm just a little worried about surface temperatures. I think we'll top out at 33 or 34 on Saturday, which should be when the bulk of the snow is falling. This will melt things a little bit, but I think things will cool down quickly at night and snow will still be falling. A little burst of snow on Sunday should top off our accumulations of 2 or more inches.
The Christmas Eve storm is still up in the air at this point, but I think our chances are getting better for an accumulating snow. The 6z run of the GFS had the storm going to our south (that's good for snow here) and put down over 5 inches of snow. The 12z has a strange solution with mostly snow here, but the low pressure associated with the storm takes an odd path northward to Tennessee then cuts east. We'll see how this track goes, but I think the fact that the storm is still on the computer models and that there is a potential track that favors snow for us is a good thing.
