9/24 - 4pm - Rain.... Please!

On my way home today, I saw that a creek near my house had completely dried up. That gave me a pretty good perspective on how our weather is right now: DRY. We might get a spot of rain Friday with a storm coming onshore in the Carolinas, but that's a stretch at this point. Expect temperatures to spiral down to 80 degrees by Friday after another hot one tomorrow.

That developing area of low pressure near Puerto Rico I talked about yesterday is not as organized as previously expected. Most models are still bringing it up to New England, but now most have it as a tropical storm now instead of a hurricane. Personally, I think this storm will barely materialize due to the possible tropical depression in the Carolinas throwing clouds over the Atlantic. This could limit solar heating on the water and cause interference with the water temperatures needed for this to form. This might have happened to Hurricane Gustav when Tropical Storm Hanna's cloud cover started intermingling with some of Gustav's, which could have made water temperatures drop in a crucial area of development. In any case, we'll have to watch both of these systems into the weekend.

5/18 - 5:30pm - It's a Bit Hot... Could We Really Have a New England Hurricane?

I noticed today as I was sitting outside eating lunch that it's a bit hot for September. Quantitatively, we're around 10 degrees above average for this time of year. We hit 90 degrees, which really hits this point home since our average high is 76 for today. Even though it's dry, it still got a bit uncomfortable in the sun this afternoon.

The GFS is now showing an area low pressure (possibly a tropical storm) coming ashore in North Carolina on Friday, giving us a small chance of rain on the same day. I'm not real optimistic with that right now, so don't get your hopes up for rain anytime soon. Still looks like next Tuesday has a better chance for rain, but that's subject to change this far out.

A few computer models are starting to unnerve some of the weather community today as they show a hurricane hitting New England this weekend:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

As the spaghetti chart says, this isn't even a tropical depression yet. Once it's a tropical storm, it's name will be Kyle (unless the low off of North Carolina beats it). The models are confused as all get out at this point, so none of these forecast tracks should be given more than a glance. As far as strength goes, most are shooting for a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. The outlier was the GFDL model which suggested a nasty Category 2 storm near Long Island, but I wouldn't give that prediction the time of day under the circumstances. We just need to sit back and watch this thing during the week.

9/22 - 7:30pm - Welcome to Fall

Ah yes, 'tis the season of changing leaves, sweaters, football, and the occasional early snowstorm. Today was the first day of Fall 2008 and nobody could really tell. A continuation of our dry, nearly drought weather has made that Summer feeling in the air stick around a while longer. We're slated to be dry until possibly the first week of October according to the GFS. Even then it looks doubtful that we'll see much if any rain at all! At least our mornings and evenings in the lower 60's have made things feel a little more fall-ish.

An area of low pressure near Puerto Rico is making weather-watchers like myself cast a weary eye to the Caribbean. It is not yet a tropical depression, but it's getting fairly close according to the NHC. Some models were and still are taking this storm near the NYC area, prompting concern that this could be like a storm that hit New York on this day in 1938. Since it's late in the season and the water is not as warm in that vicinity comparted to the Gulf, I really wouldn't worry about this storm being a big mess like the one in '38. It is important that we keep an eye on it though in case it throws in some late season surprises.

Still 11,000 without power in Louisville as of 4:30pm today. It boggles my mind that we still have people without power from last Sunday's wind storm. That right there should tell you that this was a phenomenon that many of us will only see once in a lifetime. After returning to school today, an outpouring of many stories and experiences reverberated throughout the halls. I heard some say they didn't even lose power or see all that much wind. Those experiences were in the minority as most of the people I talked to said they were without power until this past weekend, with a few still without power. Many also had to clear out tree limbs and repair damage caused to their homes. We only lost a half dozen shingles and a couple limbs fell in our woods, so I consider myself lucky after hearing what others had to go through.

Thanks again for all the comments concerning my acceptance into MSU yesterday.

9/21 - 2:30pm - Boring Weather, Big Announcement

I'll start with the big announcement: I have been accepted into Mississippi State University for the fall of 2009. This means I'm off to Starkville, MS to complete my professional meteorology degree with an emphasis in broadcasting next August. For those who don't know, Mississippi State has one of the best, if not the best, meteorology programs in the South. I visited their facilities in July of this year and was thoroughly impressed with what they had to offer, especially in the meteorology department. The professors and students there are just as nuts about the weather as I am!

Moving on to our boring weather... We might get a spotty shower around here this afternoon since a few of them have formed to our south. The rest of the week looks dry and sunny, with highs reaching into the mid 80's.

9/20 - 12pm - New Forecast Video

I have a nasty cold and lost my voice, but I was just barely able to crank out a video today before the whole voice box went down the tubes. I've made a couple small graphical enhancements to the video and the 7-day forecast, so look for those. This week should be much calmer than last week.

9/19 - 1pm - Warming Up a Bit

Mid 80's will stick around here for the weekend as the sunny and dry weather continues. A small system to our south will bring showers to downstate Kentucky, but no such luck for us. We really do need the rain. At least the weather is pristine for the Ryder Cup!

We're down to 98,000 customers without power from LG&E, which is still a huge number considering the winds rolled through on Sunday. JCPS will have school on Monday since only 14 schools lack power and generators can be used for them. The school year will be extended to June 1st to accommodate the missed days. With a possibly nasty winter on the way, it's doubtful that this will be the final time this year that the last day of school is moved.

9/18 - 5:30pm - Dry and Powerless

We're still sitting at 129,000 LG&E customers without power in the Metro, with 30 of those being JCPS buildings. Luckily the weather is quiet and it isn't terribly warm.

With the Ryder Cup going on this week, we want to make sure the weather is perfect. I can assure you that it will be beautiful during this stretch, but we need rain badly. The next chance of rain could be as far away as a couple weeks from now, as the GFS has a dry and high pressure dominant pattern setting in.

With this dry weather, the temperatures have risen slightly in the forecast. We're looking at highs in the lower 80's for the next week as opposed to 70's. The air will be a bit stagnant for the next couple weeks, so we could see air quality problems as well.