1/10 - 2pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast - 900th Post!

Here's a fresh Mississippi State University 7-day forecast, the first of 2010:


It's a relief that temperatures will finally be getting above freezing this week. I don't see any snow in the forecast, but heavy rain may become an issue by the weekend. Until then, expect sunny skies and highs in the 40's and 50's.

I'm proud to announce that this is my 900th blog post. I started this blog in January 2007 with the hope that it would teach me more about weather and mass communication. What I didn't expect was the amount of people who would actually look at it and where it would take me. I've had over 27,500 visits since 2007 and an average of 85 per day. That comes out to around 600 visits to this blog every week! Thanks to all my viewers for supporting me through over the years. I plan to keep this blog going for many more years to come!

1/8 - 4pm - Bitter Cold!

We may have missed out on the snow here in Starkville, but the cold certainly hit us hard last night. Here's this weekend's forecast:


That's right, no above freezing temperatures until Sunday at the earliest. Many have asked me why MSU missed the brunt of the winter storm yesterday. The answer is quite simple: Temperatures were warmer than forecast on the computer models. Temperatures at the surface were cold enough for snow to stick during some points of the morning yesterday, but warmer than expected temperatures aloft changed most of the snow to rain and sleet. Only a few miles north of MSU the dominant precipitation type was snow, especially in places like West Point and Tupelo. This is a classic example of how hard it is to forecast snow. A degree or two and a few miles can make a big difference!

Be sure to bundle up if you're out this evening, because temperatures will get down into the lower teens again tonight. Walking to class this morning was brutal by Mississippi standards. Temperatures were in the 15-17 degree range and winds were gusting to around 20, making the windchill dip into below zero territory. We should see a warm-up next week, so getting around campus should become bearable again!

Jefferson County Public Schools back home in Louisville closed today because of the first major accumulating snow of the season up there. Louisville received between 2.5 to 4 inches, making some back roads pretty hazardous. Here's what it looks like right now out my window at home:


Pretty sight, eh? We'll see if Louisville gets anymore snow next week.

1/6 - 6:30pm - Video Update on Mississippi Winter Storm

This video has the latest on our winter storm:


(Click the HD button to view this video in high-definition)

As of now, it looks like one to two inches of snow could fall in Starkville. Some freezing rain and sleet could mix in early in the morning, but we should switch to all snow by mid morning. Driving could be hazardous, so be careful out there tomorrow!

1/5 - 10:30am - Snow on the Way!

Snow is on the way for much of the Southeast as a storm rolls through with cold temperatures already in place. Based on the latest computer models, Starkville could get an inch or two, Tennessee could get more than two inches, and Louisville is on track to receive three to four inches. All of the models have been showing a little bit of warm air surging north during the storm, meaning Starkville could be closer to the rain/snow line than previously thought. We'll see how this develops over the next day or so.

Classes start tomorrow here at Mississippi State, so a busy day is ahead!

1/2 - 7pm - Snow Chances Going Up!

Snow chances are on the rise as confidence and agreement among the computer models increases for next week. Right now it looks like snow could fall from Chicago to Mississippi on Thursday. With cold air in place, problems with ice or rain look very unlikely for all points north of Central Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. As far as snowfall totals go, I think we could see some fairly impressive numbers come out of this system. The GFS model had been very conservative with precipitation amounts up until the 18z run this afternoon, which mirrors the ECMWF (Euro) more closely with increased precipitation (I do not have access to precipitation amounts for the ECMWF, but local NWS discussions highlighted what was going on with this model). I would say that Louisville could get 3 to 5 inches of snow out of this system if the GFS keeps this trend up. Remember that it will be very cold when the precipitation reaches the area, so liquid rain to snow conversion ratios will be much higher.

I'm heading back to Mississippi State on Monday, and this same system may spread snow across the northern half of the state on Thursday! I was a bit worried that it may not be cold enough down there for this system to stay all snow, but the GFS and Euro have been consistent in keeping things cold enough for snow north of I-20. The current 18z GFS run spits out over 4 inches of snow for the Starkville, Columbus, West Point area, so we may see a good accumulating snow if things keep up on the models. 4 inches may be a little too optimistic, but I'd say at least an inch or two. There's certainly room for things to change between now and Thursday, but I think chances are getting better for snow in Mississippi. We'll see how it goes!

12/31 - 5:30pm - New Year's Eve... Here Comes the COLD!

It's New Year's Eve and people are already gathered around Times Square in New York City. It's the end of a decade and time to start a new weather pattern as well. Judging by computer models, I think Mother Nature may have some interesting plans in store for the start of 2010.

COLD. Whether you live in Louisville, Kansas City, Denver, or even Jackson, Mississippi, you're going to hear and say that word a lot over the next few weeks. Arctic air, and I do mean ARCTIC, will finally push into the eastern half of the US this evening and tomorrow. The Arctic Oscillation is very negative right now, meaning high pressure over the Arctic is pushing the cold air south. We're overdue for this cold blast because the AO has been negative for all of this month, but now it's going off the charts negative. Louisville will have highs in the 20's this week and next, with lows plunging into the single digits at times. Mississippi may have trouble pushing 40 for highs next week and lows will certainly dip into the teens.

SNOW. That's a word many in the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys have been saying for weeks now, but nothing has really come of it. Now that the cold air will finally be in place, snow looks like a fair bet for these areas. The GFS model has been bringing a couple of nice storms through these areas sometime between the 7th and 12th and it's not backing off. Right now the storms are pretty suppressed to the south on the GFS because of the intense cold air in place over the Central US, but if history repeats itself, one or both of these storms may drift northward on the computer models over the next few days. Louisville would certainly be impacted if this happens.

Here's what the NWS in Louisville says about the first storm for Wednesday and Thursday:

THIRD...AND PERHAPS OF MOST CONCERN...IS A STORM SYSTEM WHICH THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF(AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GEFS ENSEMBLES) ARE TRYING TO SHOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS DIG A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SEWD OUT OF CANADA AND CARVE OUT A NICE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. IN TURN...AN AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS AND HEADS ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HINTED AT SOME FORM OF A SYSTEM IN PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER...MODELS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN ON THEIR FORECASTED EVOLUTION AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST...THAT BEING TO ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY...TO THAT ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF AT THIS TIME IS NOT MUCH...BUT IN A COLD AIR MASS...SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS WOULD BE QUITE HIGH. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Mississippi may see some snow action from this system, and the NWS in Jackson is right on top of this:

THINGS LOOK TO CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS WHICH SHIFTS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE CERTAIN ON ANY DETAILS BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS TROUGH DEVELOPING A WEST GULF LOW ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE ARKLAMISS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SOUTH OF I-20 ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD INDICATION OF SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HBG. ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS LOOKING AT THE TEMP PROFILES THAT 850-700MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALTHOUGH IF STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AND THESE LEVELS NUDGE ABOVE FREEZING WE COULD SEE SOME ICE EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION TRANSITIONS EVERYTHING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY OUTLOOKS THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...EITHER COMPOSED OF ICE AND SNOW...OR JUST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY VERY WELL BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

We'll see how this and the second system between the 9th and 12th develops. Maybe it's finally our turn in KY, IN, TN, TN, MS, and AL to get some snow!

12/30 - 10am - I'm in the Courier-Journal Today!

Louisville's Courier-Journal published an article about my meteorological pursuits in the Neighborhoods section of the paper. It was very well written and the layout in the print version is very nice. Here's a link to the online version of the article: Click here

(Note: There is a typo in the title of the online version)