1/22 - 5pm - All Over the Place

There's a word I like to hear when we have a storm in the forecast: model convergence. I haven't heard it or said it once today. This system next week that could bring us a ton of snow, a nasty ice storm, or a boatload of rain just cannot be forecast accurately at this point using our 21st century technology. The GFS gives us a smattering of snow on Tuesday before cranking up the rain for Wednesday and Thursday. I'm getting a similar gist from the Euro as well.

I just looked at the HPC's low track and they have the low tracking through Tennessee. The DGEX model seems to agree with that to some degree. The thing I've seen the most on all of these models has been a depletion of moisture on Monday and Tuesday to the storm (two systems going on here) on Wednesday-Thursday. I also noticed that the Louisville NWS is sticking to their guns with an all snow solution for both systems on our local forecast package, although they note how difficult they are being forecast-wise. I think we'll know by Sunday if we're going to get socked by this thing or not. Don't get your hopes up.

What I can bet on is warm weather for tomorrow! After a high in the 50s today, we'll see mid 50s for tomorrow. The reality of Winter will set in by the weekend, with lower 30s for both Saturday and Sunday.

1/21 - 7:30pm - Still Watching Next Week

I think most of us are ready for a break in these cold temperatures around here! Luckily, both tomorrow and Friday will rise into the 40's and maybe touch 50 for a high temperature. There could be a few sprinkles of rain on Friday as well, but overall not an active weather pattern for late week and the weekend.

Next week is still looking ominous and complex. The fact that somewhere in the region will see a moderate to major ice and snow event is pretty much agreed upon, but where is the real question. The GFS has trended slightly colder and further south over the course of today, but we'll see how that works in the 0z tonight and subsequent runs tomorrow. The Euro is similar, but wants it to come through slower. At any rate, nobody really knows if this will be a mix (my bet), all snow, ice, or rain for us.

The GFS has waffled around with precipitation potential today as well. Earlier runs had a moderate amount of precip, but the 12z and 18z sucked alot of moisture out of the area. I really wouldn't lose sleep over that fact at the moment because it's too far out. I'm unsure if the low precipitation bias on the GFS still exists, so we'll have to see how this acts on the models. There's a possibility that this could be an ice storm or snowstorm, so everyone needs to keep up with the latest forecast.

1/20 - 7pm - Another Week of Snow Forecast Drama

It's cold. We hit 27 degrees for a high today and most of the snow has melted. President Obama's inauguration in Washington had about the same weather as we did, so you can bet it was uncomfortable to be among the crowds in attendance. A warm up is on the way, but a storm lurking in the shadows will cause quite a stir in the forecast.

Tomorrow will nudge above freezing for a high and temperatures should top out in the mid 40s for Thursday and Friday. The models continue to show a couple snow showers around for Friday, but they won't be anywhere near the magnitude of Sunday night's snow event. Temperatures will hold below freezing for the weekend with sunny skies.

Then the "fun" begins.

I've been watching this Monday-Wednesday storm for a couple days now. Over the weekend it looked impressive, but I didn't like where the models were taking the area of low pressure. Yesterday we saw a southward shift in this storm, which piqued my interest and made me a little more optimistic.

Today we saw more southern movement on the models, especially in the GFS. That prompted the Louisville NWS office to put this statement in their forecast discussion:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON HAVING A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MAJOR QUESTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL THERMAL STRUCTURE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIFFERENT P-TYPES. WE WILL BE RAISING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MON-TUE AND FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY MENTION A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND ADDRESS THE ONGOING P-TYPE ISSUES IN LATER FORECASTS. STAY TUNED!

After looking at the 12z and 18z GFS, I agree that this will be very difficult to pin down in terms of precipitation type. Right now this looks rather icy for us, but a slight shift south would give us quite a snowstorm. Then again, it could shift north and become a rainy washout. To illustrate how close we are to the freezing mark, here's the surface pressure map from the 18z GFS for late Monday night:



That blue line straddling the Ohio River is the freezing line at the surface, which is a stone's throw away from town. This line along with the low was south of here for the duration of the storm on the 12z GFS, but the 18z (one above) took it just a hair north of town. I also noticed an increase in precipitation in the 18z as well, so we're really going to have to watch this one. My best guess right now is a mix of ice and snow. It's too early to call for snow amounts (if any) at the moment, but that looks like the task at hand for this weekend. This should be interesting!

1/19 - 10am - We Finally Got Some Snow!

It was snowing pretty hard until just after midnight across Jefferson County. A second batch of snow showers came through around 3am this morning and gave us our final batch of snow for the morning. We got exactly 1 inch at our house this morning, which nearly covered up the grass. Here are some photos:



There is a chance for a few more snow showers today and tonight, but I don't think they'll be as strong as last night's. High temperatures will stay in the 20s for today and tomorrow, but should warm up into the 40s for late week.

1/18 - 8pm - Have You Seen the Radar!?

I've been peeking at the radar over the past 3 hours, and boy how things have changed. A small area of snow showers in Illinois has exploded into a well-developed line of light snow heading straight for us:



I'm thinking about an inch should come out of this, but if more explosive development occurs I think we could see a little more. We're not talking about a snowstorm, but I think the ground will be white by tomorrow morning. Local temps around the area right now...SDF 31...my house 31...LEX 30...EVV 32...CVG 26...IND 21. It's cold enough, so maybe this is finally our chance to get the ground covered with snow! I noticed that brine is on the roads around the Metro, so travel won't be too bad. Watch for low visibility during heavier snow showers though.

1/17 - 3pm - New Video Forecast

Looks like a clipper system passing to our north will provide some light snow tonight through tomorrow evening. Accumulations will be mainly under an inch with this system. We could see more than an inch if temperatures stay below freezing tomorrow and more moisture is pumped into the area. Temperatures will moderate by the middle of next week.

1/16 - 4:45pm - Get This Cold Air Outta Here!

I wanted to go back to sleep after our weather station displayed this at around 6am this morning: -3.7°F. Yikes! Temperatures in the city held at -1 for a couple hours this morning before shooting back up to 17 this afternoon. It really doesn't matter if it's -1 or -3, it was downright cold anyway!

Tomorrow will feel like Spring compared to today, with a high around 40 after a low tonight of around 7. As that clipper approaches, temperatures will drop to near freezing for Sunday.

The computer models have been getting a little more aggressive with the clipper tracking north of us on Sunday. Right now, I'm seeing around an inch of snow on the GFS and NAM, with pretty decent agreement on track and temperature at the moment. We'll have to watch this, but I think this is a pretty solid forecast based on the track of the last few clippers this week.