Thursday, May 19, 2011
5/19 - 12:45am CDT - Bust Today, Better Tomorrow?
needed to keep clouds from forming in the cooler temperatures up there. Otherwise, I like the setup since winds and moisture will be wrapping around the northeast side of a low centered in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Easterly winds should stick around in Central Kansas beceause The cap (warm layer of air aloft) should break sometime after 4pm or so tomorrow based on output from the NAM computer model.
With all of these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow across Central Kansas with a 10% tornado risk tacked on. Could this be upgraded to a Moderate Risk? I think so if this dry slot aloft comes in and keeps the upper air clear tomorrow. We also have to be sure that no storms develop over Central Kansas tomorrow morning, which seems unlikely at this point. After two big severe weather busts in the past couple weeks, we're hoping tomorrow will be the charm!
Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook tomorrow for all the latest updates from our chase!