Thursday, May 31, 2007

5/31 - 11:30am - Rain is on Its Way!

First off, take a look at this HPC forecast for Saturday into Sunday:


That looks as good as the finest art piece at the Louvre Museum in Paris. This means that we will finally get some much needed rain around the area. I must say that now the HPC is on board with this weekend rain event, I feel more confident about it. The GFS is in good agreement with this outlook:


The NAM model is in fairly good agreement with the GFS. It shows the general shape of the storm to be a little different, but nevertheless it gives us about the same amount of rain. Imagine that, the GFS and NAM actually agreeing! If only we could get that kind of agreement during snow season...

So Saturday into Sunday look like our rain days from these models. Sure, there are chances for isolated rain showers/T-storms from tomorrow to Monday, but Sunday and Monday are the highest chances. I did see one model this morning that did not favor this scenario for rain though. The 12z Canadian model (eh?) seemed to drive this system a little south and lessen the rain amounts significantly. I'm not too worried though because I think that the HPC, NAM model, and GFS model are on common ground with this system. Those three factors outweigh the Canadian solution.

The NWS Louisville office is keeping our rain chances at 40 percent from Sunday to Monday night. I think this is a safe bet because there is still a chance that this could fizzle. I'm going to place my cards on a 60 percent chance though because I think that we have a better shot at rain than no rain. I'm sure that once we get closer to this event, the chances will go up at the NWS. That's if the models are consistent though. Remember, the NAM and GFS can wipe this whole rain event out in just one run of the model. But I think there's enough proof for this system to play out weekend.

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