6/4 - 4:30pm EDT - Another Great Storm Chasing Season

I'm on the ground in Louisville having completed four weeks of storm chasing as a tour guide with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. This week (tour 5) was quite a long one as we traveled 3,287 miles across Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. We intercepted two good supercells on this tour near Valentine, Nebraska and again just northeast of Minot, North Dakota. While neither of these produced a tornado, they were very picturesque and produced some great sunset pictures. Check out the map below for our route (ignore the sudden jog to Montana... my iPad had a glitch while it was recording our location yesterday):


This season overall has been very good. I've seen three funnel clouds, a rapidly rotating wall cloud in Kansas, and was within a couple miles of two invisible rain-wrapped tornadoes in Oklahoma. One of those tornadoes was rated an EF5 near El Reno, Oklahoma and unfortunately caused a great deal of damage and a few fatalities. The other tornado crossed I-35 in Moore, Oklahoma about a mile in front of us and threw some small debris and power lines into the roadway. Had these tornadoes not been rain-wrapped, they would've been in plain sight right in front of us. We also ran into the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV 2) of Discovery Channel fame, the TornadoVideos.net Dominator 1 and 2 vehicles, and The Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt chase team quite a bit over the past four weeks.


I want to extend a special thank you to all the viewers of this blog and those who have been following me on Twitter and Facebook over the past month. Being able to share this storm chasing experience with you has been one of my goals over the past four seasons and this year was better than ever thanks to advancements in mobile communications technology. I plan to return to Tornado Alley next year for another round of storm chasing and I'll let you know when I'll be out there as soon as my schedule solidifies.

This blog will return to it's ordinary state tomorrow, where I'll be reporting on weather news, meteorology, and a few odds and ends in between as usual. My next expedition will take me to the Bonnaroo Music Festival in Manchester, Tennessee next week, which I attend almost annually, so I'll be sure to post updates from that event on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

6/3 - 11am CDT - Heading Back to Denver

Yesterday we chased a very picturesque supercell storm northeast of Minot, North Dakota. While it didn't produce a tornado, the cloud formations in the storm were spectacular alone. The first cell we tried to intercept drifted into Canada, but the cell in the picture below stayed just south of the border and we were able to take quite a few pictures as the sun set. The only bad thing about this storm was that it occurred over the flooded fields of North Dakota, so the mosquito swarm was out in force (yes, I'm itching all over this morning). It was very difficult to even hold still for three seconds to take a picture because the mosquitos began covering and biting exposed skin almost immediately after getting out of the van. Keep that in mind as you're viewing the photos below.








It was quite an experience yesterday since most of us haven't been that far north in the contiguous 48 states before. Our overnight stay in North Dakota means a long (700 mile +) trip to Denver, Colorado to day so that we can pick up our next tour group and say goodbye to our guests on tour 5. Sadly, this is also the end of the road for me this season. I'll be flying back to Louisville tomorrow afternoon so that I can spend some time with my family this summer. It's been a great run and I'll post a quick wrap-up of this week's chase and my whole trip here either later tonight or tomorrow.

6/2 - 10:45am CDT - South Dakota Today, Not Looking Very Promising

We saw a small supercell last night near Valentine, Nebraska with a very picturesque sunset behind it. Since there were no road networks in the area we had to stay a good distance away from it and unfortunately it didn't last long either. If it had developed a couple hours earlier it would've been a big storm!


I'm no fan of today's severe weather setup in South Dakota. The main thing this morning that throws up red flags is the cirrus cloud shield over much of the state. This isn't something that burns off during afternoon heating, but is rather persistent. This shield will act to limit instability this afternoon and could keep storms from firing until after dark or not at all. Dew points at the surface are a bit marginal this morning and it's not a sure thing that they'll recover this afternoon because of computer model issues lately. We won't get a true east wind for good low-level wind shear either, so that's another thing to throw in the bin of issues.


Nevertheless, we're going to drive up to south-central South Dakota (short drive) and wait there to see how things develop. Maybe Mother Nature will surprise us. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk area out for much of South Dakota, but that may be in jeopardy right now based on current conditions.

6/1 - 10am CDT - Moving South Today

We're ready for storms today after a long drive back south from Detroit Lakes, MN yesterday. We started the day in Oacoma, SD and are headed westward to catch a southern route near Murdo, SD. We expect to keep heading south through Nebraska until we see a good spot where winds and cloud formation become conducive for supercell development. That area could be as far south as Goodland, Kansas. West-southwest flow at 500 mb and moisture surging northward will create the instability needed for this afternoon, while east-southeast winds will contribute to the low-level shear necessary for rotating storms. The one issue we're dealing with this morning is cloud cover across much of Nebraska and portions of Kansas. It should burn off/move out in time for storm development, but if it doesn't we may have an "event failure" (AKA no storms). Check out the satellite image below and you'll see what I mean:


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather this afternoon and tacked on a 5% tornado risk as well.


As we keep an eye to the sky this afternoon I'll be posting frequent updates on Twitter and Facebook. Be sure to follow me on those sites for the latest reports!

5/31 - 12pm CDT - Minnesota? / Back to Nebraska

We're departing Detroit Lakes, Minnesota for Nebraska this morning. Many of you are probably asking how on earth we ended up in Minnesota last night. Here's the deal: The area of low pressure that we tried to stay up yesterday with kept moving northward and we had to follow it into the Fargo, North Dakota area. The cap (warm layer of inhibiting air) was broken with 4500 J/kg CAPE (!) for nearly four hours yesterday, but the low kept moving around. This meant that the east wind component needed for supercell formation wasn't staying in the same place either, so elements just weren't lining up in one spot for a long enough time to get anything going. Once we finally threw in the towel, we headed just a few miles east to Detroit Lakes, Minnesota for a nice evening in the town with a view of the lake.


Not all was lost though, because we did have a fast-moving squall line of storms move through Detroit Lakes while we were eating dinner. We had heavy rain and lightning where we were, but just a few miles west in Fargo, ND they sustained some wind damage due to a bowing segment in the line of storms.


Westerly flow aloft and southeasterly winds at the surface will return to Nebraska/South Dakota tomorrow as an area of low pressure moves into Colorado. These winds at the surface should usher in dew points that will break 65 degrees, so moisture should not be a problem as it returns to the Plains. Instability also looks good and it appears the cap will break tomorrow in the later afternoon hours. With all of this put into play, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% Slight Risk area for severe weather in Nebraska, parts of South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. They even have a hatched area for an enhanced risk and their discussion calls for supercells with a few tornadoes possible. Looks like the chase is on again tomorrow!

5/30 - 10:15am CDT - Time for Some Northern Plains Action

We're off to Eastern South Dakota (Northeast Nebraska maybe?) to intercept storms that will form up that way. This has so far been a difficult forecasting day because the computer forecast models show an area of low pressure in Nebraska this morning, but each have a slightly different scenario on where it ends up. Some are even forming a secondary low to the north this afternoon. The general rule for today is to drive to where the east winds are and adjust our position as necessary because we simply can't trust any model output. This is one of those days where skill in analyzing surface conditions and cloud formation will be key.


Since moisture, instability, and shear will all be ample today combined with the east winds, wherever they set up, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather with a 10% tornado risk. Supercells that form today won't stay isolated for very long since directional shear will be parallel to the cold front pushing through according to the SPC. If this happens as forecast, we may only have a short window to chase a good storm with a tornado risk, so being on-time is very important. That's why we left North Platte, NE at 8am his morning. We should be in our target area early this afternoon.


As we pulled in a restaurant to eat breakfast this morning, we saw The Weather Channel's Tornado Hunt vehicles in the parking lot. We also saw quite a few other chasers pull in to restaurants and hotels in North Platte last night, so I'm sure that town was happy to see the quick uptick in business generated by all the chasers.


Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook today. I'll be posting frequent updates and photos from our chase, which should be a good one if the forecast plays out.

5/30 - 12am CDT - Upslope Storms Part Deux Fell Flat

Our second attempt in chasing upslope storms within a week fell flat today. Like last time, the cap stayed on too tight and a layer of clouds and fog overspread our target area just as we thought storms would initiate. While we waited this afternoon just east of Cheyenne, WY, we ran into Mike Bettes and the Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt crew.

The very fog that moved into our target area only grew thicker as we moved into Nebraska to try and limit our driving time needed for tomorrow. At it's thickest point, the fog dropped visibility to around 300 feet as we headed east on I-80. We literally could not see the signs on the side of the road until they were just to the right of the edge of our hood.

Tomorrow could be a pretty big day in the Dakotas and Northern Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (45%) for portions of the area and expects a few significant tornadoes tomorrow afternoon before the storms merge into a linear line. I'll have an update tomorrow morning when we get on the road, which will be early so that we can get to our target on time.