8/11 - 12pm - Severe Weather in Mississippi

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT Risk for a good portion of the southeast today:


CAPE values in central Mississippi right now are topping 4500 J/kg and storms are firing vigorously. Shear values are way too low to have a tornado threat here, but high winds and a bit of small hail aren't out of the question. Hopefully these storms can hold temperatures down this afternoon into the lower 90's instead of the middle 90's.

Looks like Louisville had more flooding problems yesterday with storms that came through the area. More storms are on the way for this afternoon up there, so they'll really have to keep an eye out for more flash flooding.
[Courier-Journal, NWS]

A typhoon that already caused havoc in Taiwan came ashore in China yesterday, causing one million people to be evacuated and numerous fatalities. A typhoon hit Japan yesterday as well, which caused landslides and fatalities.
[USA Today]

8/9 - 10am CDT - Moved In at Mississippi State

After a day full of moving boxes and organizing, I'm finally moved in at Mississippi State University! One remarkable difference between Louisville, KY and Starkville, MS is the temperature. Take a look at the NWS forecast for today in Starkville:

Today: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 99. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

The notion of a thunderstorm seems very nice after realizing how hot it is down here. Temperatures should settle into the upper 80's this week, although this upper-level ridge should stick around for at least a week.

There's a MODERATE Risk for severe weather in the upper Midwest today, including parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa:


Looks like the main risks will be for hail and high winds, with Chicago right in the center of all this. We'll have to see what kind of storm remports come in this afternoon.

8/6 - 11:30am - Tomorrow's the Day!

After a summer full of storm chasing, traveling, and wacky severe weather, it's finally time for me to travel to Mississippi State tomorrow for my first semester there. Move-in day is on Saturday, meaning all those boxes have to come out of the car and into my dorm room. The drive is fairly long (7-8 hours), but it should be fun and I hope that things will go smoothly!

The Louisville National Weather Service office has issued a regional map with 24-hour rainfall totals the morning after the flood:

You can really see how isolated the storm cell was that hovered over Jefferson County that morning. We were shocked to see that we only had .99" at the end of the day on our rain gauge here at home, but this map pretty much confirms that reading. The gym floor at my alma mater duPont Manual High School was flooded during this event, but luckily maintenance crews and administrators were on the scene to help reduce the amount of damage. Great job!

I also wanted to point out that we've just gone through the coolest July ever in the region. We usually have 12 days with 90 degrees or higher in Louisville during July, but this year we had none for the first-time ever. [Coldest July Ever Recorded in the Midwest/Ohio Valley - NWS]

8/4 - 9pm - Just Another Wacky Day in Louisville

Talk about some wacky weather, a surprise flood that damages millions of dollars worth of property, traps many in their vehicles, and knocks out power to thousands of residents. If you told me last night that we would break the all-time record for a one-hour rainfall today with 6 inches in places around the Metro, I would have told you to see a doctor. So, in the last twelve months we've had a record-breaking wind storm, record-breaking ice storm, and a record-breaking surprise flood. Is this really just another day in the wacky realm of Louisville weather?

Many are asking why, what happened? Why did this eastward line of storms this morning suddenly make a 90-degree southward turn over Southern Indiana and slam Louisville? My answer is about as clear as the one from the rest of the meteorological community at the moment: I don't really know. My guess would be something to do with the lower level jet, which is a rapid stream of wind a few thousand feet off the ground. This jet normally activates at night when there is little to no instability, meaning it can power late-evening thunderstorms with little interference from rising parcels of unstable air. The thunderstorms heading eastward this morning may have come in contact with or lost contact with the lower level jet this morning by some fashion and that may have made a difference in the direction they were moving. Technicalities aside, I've never seen a storm system take a sharp turn like that before and it was about as freak of an event as, say, a wind storm from the remnants of hurricane over Kentucky (oh wait a minute...).

Looks like we're going to see more rain in a few hours here in town, but I don't think it will be as heavy as the deluge we had this morning.

8/4 - 10:15am - FLOOD EMERGENCY

Louisville is under a Flood Emergency right now after inches and inches of rain fell this morning. Rain should end by around midday, but more storms are on the way for this afternoon. This is a very dangerous situation, especially in the Downtown Louisville area. Please do not drive into high water, and stay inside if you don't absolutely have to go out today.

Updates will be posted on my Twitter feed: twitter.com/ryan_weather

8/3 - 12pm - The Packing Process Has Begun

Boxes and more boxes are beginning to show up around my room as I begin packing for Mississippi State. You never realize how much stuff you've accumulated in 18 years of life until you start sorting through it. Luckily most of my stuff nowadays is fairly small, like discs, cameras, books, etc. This is going to be an action-packed week as I finish packing and finally travel down to Mississippi State on Friday.

I just peeked at the forecast for Starkville, MS again from the National Weather Service:

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 95.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 95.

I thought 80 felt pretty warm yesterday, so it may take some time to adjust to temperatures in the mid 90's (something we haven't had here in quite a while!).

A cold front coming through the Louisville area tomorrow evening may bring some strong or even severe storms to the region. I don't think we'll see too many severe storms, but the low level jet may enhance things a bit. Here's the outlook from the SPC for tomorrow:

8/1 - 3pm - Late Summer Tornadoes Abound

It seems like I've been writing about tornadoes quite a bit lately. There were 85 reported tornadoes in July (through the 29th), which is up slightly from the 77 3-year average. The good news is that we haven't had a tornado-related fatality since May. Our overall tornado count for 2009 is down from previous years, thanks in part to the tornado drought we had in Tornado Alley early on in the season.
[SPC - Monthly and Annual U.S. Tornado Summaries]

A tornado that hit Selton, Connecticut yesterday was rated an EF1 after analysis by the NYC National Weather Service office. Trees seemed to be the only things damaged by the tornado, but thousands lost power during the storm.
[NWS, NBC Connecticut]

Just took a look at the forecast for Starkville, MS when I get there on Friday:

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88.

Whew... Not as hot as I was expecting! The long-range GFS shows a fairly dry pattern shaping up with a possible ridge forming in a couple weeks.