5/8 - 5pm - High Winds!!!

High winds are coming into the Louisville area at around 5:30pm. Speeds near 100mph were recorded with this storm in Carbondale, IL and Evansville, IN recorded gusts near 80mph this afternoon. The good news is that the winds are weakening, but I still see potential for 50mph winds here in the next 30 minutes (5:30pm). To top that off, we're under a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until 8pm.

How about all this rain!? All of the streams in my neighborhood are at capacity right now and I have a feeling that one or more of them will spill into the street soon. Cloud-to-ground lightning has been a major feature of this storm system, so be careful if you have to venture outside.

After the last batch of rain and wind comes through from the Owensboro area in a few minutes, we should clear out a bit, save for some scattered showers tomorrow morning. We should stay out of the rain until at least Wednesday with temperatures holding near 70 for highs.

5/7 - 4pm - Severe Threat Diminishes

Storms that developed this afternoon have stayed south of the Louisville area and have stayed well below severe limits. Severe weather still looks fairly likely in Missouri, and anything that develops there will weaken as it arrives here late tonight. Expect a period of heavy rain and thunder tonight, a bit of dry weather late tomorrow morning once the early morning rain clears out, and more spotty thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. After seeing the instability we'll have to work with tomorrow, I'm thinking that a few of these storms in the afternoon could get close to being severe, but most will be strong. The SPC has also dropped us from the SLIGHT Risk area they had yesterday for Friday. Another line of thunderstorms will come through tomorrow night, but they'll be dying as they reach us like tonight's round of storms.

We'll work on clearing out any remaining rain on Saturday, which should help bring in sunny skies for us on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Temperatures will consistently stay in the 70's through the middle of next week.

5/6 - 5pm - Want Sunshine? Wait Until Next Week.

The spotty showers coming through right now extend all the way to Paducah, so I think rain will be possible through the mid evening hours today. We should dry out a bit tonight and tomorrow morning, but a chance of thunderstorms is on-tap for tomorrow afternoon. The SPC has put us in a SLIGHT Risk (15%) for severe storms tomorrow:


Instability won't be too strong tomorrow, so expect some wind-driven thunderstorms to fire up in the afternoon. This threat may be enhanced if we see more sunshine than expected. Speaking of sunshine, where is it!? It's on the way for early next week, but I think there may be a few peeks of sun here and there between now and then.

Friday probably won't see much in the way of sunshine with more storms coming through. The latest instability data suggests a lesser threat for severe weather on Friday than previously thought, so the SPC has taken the area out of the SLIGHT Risk area they had yesterday. Still a few details to be hammered out with this next system, so we'll have to keep watch on it. We'll most likely see the remains of an MCS (mesoscale convective system --big 'ol line of thunderstorms) come through, but the elements aren't there for this thing to be terribly strong.

As this Friday system exits the area, it'll leave behind some showers for Saturday. Sunday and Monday is when the sun will come out for a good while and temperatures will stay in the mid 70's.

5/5 - 4:15pm - Storms to Come!

Before I get into local weather, let me first tell you about about a new website that I designed and just put online. It's called Storm Chaser TV and you can access it at http://stormchasertv.com. It's a streaming video website for Storm Chasing Adventure Tours (stormchasing.com), the company I've gone storm chasing with for the last two years. The live storm chasing video will be active when the tour group is out chasing during the week (It's been on and off this afternoon). A redesigned stormchasing.com will be unveiled when I go chasing in a month as well.

Now, on to local stuff...

Rain will be around mid-morning tomorrow and possibly last into the middle of the afternoon. The SPC has taken us out of the SLIGHT Risk area for tomorrow's severe weather possibilities.

Thursday looks pretty dry right now, but rain should come into the picture by tomorrow evening. Severe weather prospects for Friday have increased a bit, especially given the increased CAPE values (instability) that I'm seeing on the SREF. Time will tell with this system, but I think severe weather will be real possibilty somewhere in the region on Friday afternoon. The SPC has gone ahead and put us in a SLIGHT Risk area (15%):

5/4 - 5:30pm - A Quick Reprieve

While Derby events were spared, I think we're collectively sick of rain in this town. We should clear out tomorrow and see some sunshine with temperatures in the lower 70's, which is very good news. Just as things start looking good, they deteriorate yet again. Take a look at this SPC severe weather outlook for Wednesday:


With the primary low passing to our south on Wednesday, I think the bulk of the severe weather will be concentrated to parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, and Georgia. That's not to say that we won't see a few severe storms up here, but I think we'll be pretty limited because of low placement and a lack of decent instability.

More showers and thunderstorms are on the way for Thursday and Friday, with temperatures staying in the 70's for the rest of the week.

5/2 - 2:15pm - 100th Video Forecast!

Today I'm celebrating my 100th video forecast. With over four hours of video forecasts in my possession, you can bet my hard drive is getting pretty full!

Kentucky Derby weather looks pretty good, but it won't get above 61 today. Sunshine may actually become plentiful this afternoon and evening if this eastward clearing trend continues. Rain will be back for tomorrow and Monday, but I think a reprieve is on the way for Tuesday with warmer temperatures!

5/1 - 5:30pm - Showers and Storms On the Way

A few showers are coming across the river to Louisville right now. This batch of rain won't last too long, but there's a little more behind the initial line. That rain should be here later tonight if it doesn't dissipate.

It still looks like there will be some rain for the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, but it won't be heavy at race time. Heavy rain will be around the area in the early morning, but this should taper off to just some showers by the afternoon. It may even clear out if we get lucky. I think we may have a hard time getting much above 60 degrees with all this rain around.

Sunday and Monday look pretty wet as well, so don't put away those umbrellas yet. I'll have more tomorrow afternoon in the video forecast.