1/7 - 4pm - You've Been Warned... Cold Air Coming!

The snow showers were pretty to look at today, but they've not amounted to anything more than a sight to see. Temperatures have hovered near the 34 degree mark, so no accumulation occurred and none was really expected. A small area of snow showers is moving through Iowa and Missouri, with the possibility of coming through later tonight if they hold together. Temperatures will hold below freezing tonight, but don't expect more than a dusting if anything sticks.

Any snow should be out of here by early tomorrow morning at the very latest. Highs will be near 40 for the balance of the week, with rain expected on Friday night into Saturday.

Now... for more interesting things. I'm warning you now, because I've been seeing this on all the models and it looks like its going to happen sooner rather than later. It's going to get very, very COLD next week after a front comes through Monday. I'm talking temperatures not getting above 30 as a high for a week or more starting on Tuesday. It's been a very long time since I've seen air this cold on the models coming down to our neck of the woods, so be prepared. Low temperatures will assuredly sink to single digits with this arctic blast, so keep those gloves handy when you're out and about next week.

Snow prospects for next week are unknown at this point. The GFS have been inconsistent with a system coming through Tuesday and Wednesday, but we will be cold enough for snow at least. The fact that we've at least a little moisture on there for next week is a good sign for some snow because the GFS has been underestimating moisture amounts in the medium and long range as of late. I'll keep an eye on this to see if anything changes.

1/6 - 6:30pm - Well, What Do We Have Here?

(This will be a short post... final exams this week to study for!)

First off, the freezing rain thankfully went north this morning. This was not good for areas in South Central Indiana, but it spared the sprawling Louisville morning rush from any problems. We simply were 1 or 2 degrees too high for this to happen.

The 12z GFS shows a possible snowstorm for next Tuesday here, with some definitely cold air coming into the area. The storm was vastly different on the 18z run, with no snow for us. We'll see if we can replicate the snowy solution in later runs tonight and tomorrow.

We won't see more than a few flurries or rain showers tomorrow, so this rain system is pretty much out of here with little consequence to us winter-weather wise.

1/5 - 4pm - Winter Weather ADVISORY

The National Weather Service has placed Jefferson and surrounding counties under a Winter Weather ADVISORY for tonight and into the morning tomorrow. As a storm comes up our way from the south tonight, freezing rain could fall and accumulate on surfaces. While I don't think we'll see more than a tenth of an inch of accumulation, I still urge you to be careful during the commute tomorrow morning. Bridges and overpasses will be the main issue here, but we're not expecting an ice storm or anything close to that severity. Everything should turn to plain rain by late morning. Again, this won't be a big issue, but it bears watching and being cautious.

Rain will continue into the afternoon tomorrow and then turn to snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Accumulations will stay under 1 inch and most will probably see a dusting on Wednesday morning, if anything at all. Clear and cold weather will dominate for the balance of the workweek, with rain expected on Friday evening into Saturday.

Looks like we'll see a couple chances for snow next week. Cooler air will be coming into the area, so I think this could be our best shot for snow so far this season. It's too early to pinpoint exactly when we'll see snow and how much, but a couple of systems have been making an appearance on the long range GFS for a little while now. More details to come later this week on this.

1/4 - 7:15pm - Still Looks Like Mostly Rain

We've seen a slight shift east in the low track for this storm on Tuesday/Wednesday, but it really hasn't had too much effect on our precipitation type. If there were some cooler air to work with, this would have made a bigger difference. We're still generally on the edge of the rain/snow line, but we'd have to see a 100 mile shift southeast in the track of this storm to get to the snow side. All in all, we're still a little ways out, but it's looking less likely that we'll see much snow out of this.

We're still on to see some snow showers on the backside of the system on Wednesday, but I'm not banking on anything more than a dusting in terms of accumulation. There's simply not enough moisture in the cold air behind the system to cause any concern at this point. So, the forecast from yesterday still holds... unless the models start trending east more and giving us more cold air to work with.

It looks like we'll still see cooler temperatures after the passage of this storm, but maybe not as cold as once thought. Still some storms to deal with in the long range, so don't give up if you want snow!

1/3 - 9pm - New Video Forecast

Sorry about the late video posting tonight... been a busy day!

Most models are still giving us mostly rain for this Tuesday/Wednesday system, but there's still time left for that to change. I'll be monitoring it closely throughout the next few days.

1/2 - 5:45pm - Can I Get a Stable Storm Track Please?

The last 24 hours have been absolutely nuts on the forecast models with our Tuesday storm. Right now I can't say what kind of precipitation we'll see, but I think we'll see a mix of multiple types. Yesterday's model runs showed it to be too warm for any freezing precipitation, but now the area of low pressure is trending slightly east on the GFS and DGEX (derivative of GFS), which starts us out with some wintry precipitation and then goes to rain before a transition to snow on Wednesday. Snow accumulations would be very small, if any, with this solution.

The Louisville NWS office was thinking we'd see mostly rain yesterday, but this trend eastward has made them rethink that. They're saying its unknown what we'll see at this point and would have to be determined based on the low pressure track. I completely agree with that, but all sorts of bells and whistles are still going off in my head.

When I see this kind of variation between the models and their runs at 4 days out, it reminds me of December 2004 and March 2008. We had all sorts of monkey business happen in the models just a few days before those storms, similar to what's happening now. My gut is telling me something is very wrong here and that doesn't happen often. I think we're in for a wild mix of forecasts over the next couple days, but we'll have a correct solution by late Sunday.

For now, I'll stick with mostly rain on Tuesday and a bit of mixed precip at the onset and backside of this storm. BUT, be ready for massive changes in that forecast if the low pressure track goes southeast more. In any case, frigid air is on the way for late next week, but not before a shot at 60 on Sunday!

1/1 - 2:15pm - Happy New Year!

I'm pulling my hair out at the moment looking at all the forecast models for Tuesday's storm. The GFS has flip-flopped on low placement twice in the last 36 hours and all the rest of the models are playing the same games. Right now I'm leaning toward a mostly rain solution based on a loose trend in the models of the low going to our northwest, but confidence is extremely low in that forecast. The hypothesis that the GFS would correct itself and place the low further north was right, but it put the low too far north for our liking! I think this is the time to sit back and relax while the models play their games and take a closer look at this during the weekend.

In the meantime, we're looking at highs in the 40s through the weekend. Rain will come through Saturday night into early Sunday, with the system I just talked about showing up at our doorstep by late Monday night into Tuesday.

Have a great New Year's Day 2009!