After a marginal chase yesterday, things are looking up here in West Kansas. Our target area is Northeast Colorado and maybe even East Wyoming or West Nebraska. Thunderstorms that form in those upslope areas will be a bit more isolated than yesterday and hefty helicity values should help with rotation. Winds are already out of the east this morning in Goodland, KS, so storms may fire earlier than usual this afternoon.
As far as the big elephant in the room, the tornado threat, I feel pretty good about it today. Over the past three days, Colorado has consistently had tornadoes from these upslope storms. With a few more ingredients added to the mix today, like helicity and good winds due to low pressure, things look fairly favorable for supercells. Conditions can always take a downward turn and not follow what is forecast, so things will have to be monitored closely.
I'll be on Twitter and Facebook today and I'll be sure to update when we're streaming live, which may be earlier than usual.