3/27 - 4pm - Severe Storms Tomorrow

No blog updates until Monday 4/6/09.
No video or 7 day forecast updates until 4/11/09.
Have a happy and safe Spring Break 2009!

Since I won't be around to do a video forecast tomorrow, here's an updated 7 day forecast for next week:



The newest SPC severe weather outlook has upgraded much of Georgia to a 45% risk for storms tomorrow:



Areas 15% or higher are in a SLIGHT Risk for severe storms, and that 45% area will likely be a MODERATE Risk tomorrow morning. At any rate, a tornado outbreak is possible in the 45% area tomorrow as a shortwave with strong shear and decent instability comes through. I think we'll see some severe weather with a few tornadoes around the region tomorrow afternoon, but the main outbreak should be suppressed to the south. If by chance instability increases more than expected tomorrow with increased sunlight, we'll see more severe weather.

Right now, rain is coming up from the south and should be in Louisville within the hour. This will continue for a few hours this evening, but we should clear out completely by the early morning hours of tomorrow, if not before. This break will last until around 2-3pm, when clusters of severe storms start rolling through. Be sure to keep your weather radios on alert mode tomorrow afternoon and evening as this system comes through.

Evacuations are underway in North Dakota after the Red River broke a record level this morning. Sandbagging has been well underway for the last few days and residents are hoping the river does not go much higher. To read more, click here.

3/26 - 8pm - Spring Break and Severe Weather

Spring Break starts tomorrow afternoon for all JCPS schools and many other districts. I'll be gone this weekend and next week, so no forecast video or blog updates until next Monday (4/6).

If you're staying in town, you're in for quite a rocky ride weather-wise. Storms will start tomorrow afternoon with a high near 62 after a nice start to the day. Periods of rain and storms will continue through Friday night and into Saturday. With moist air and instability present on Saturday, multiple lines of severe thunderstorms and super cells are possible throughout the afternoon and into Saturday evening. I think hail and wind will be the main threat, but tornadoes are certainly possible due to decent shear profiles, along with the instability and cold front behind all of this mess. The latest SPC outlook has us in a 30% area (SLIGHT Risk) for severe weather:



The SPC mentions that they will be upgrading some of that 30% area to a MODERATE Risk tomorrow, so I'll post that information when I get home after school. I'm thinking this outbreak will be worst to our south in Tennessee and northern Georgia and Alabama, but if the associated area of low pressure shifts northward and westward, temperatures would bump up here and the supply of moist air from the Gulf would intensify a bit. If the low shifts eastward/southward, then our severe risk would decrease. We'll have to see what happens.

In any case, we'll top out at 67 on Saturday and then drop to 50 for Sunday after the cold front comes through, but luckily we'll recover to 65 by Monday. The next chance of rain will occur on Tuesday, with a high near 60. We'll end the week in the 60's it looks like, with a chance for rain or storms on Thursday night.

3/25 - 7:30pm - A Bit of Light Rain, Severe Weekend?

Spotty showers are moving out of the area right now, with light rain possible during the overnight hours continuing until around noon tomorrow. Temperatures will only bump up a couple degrees for tomorrow, so expect a high of around 63.

Storms will come through on Friday night and last until Saturday afternoon. If shear is as high on Saturday as it looks right now, there could be tornado problem on early Saturday afternoon near us or just to our south. The SPC has us just outside of a SLIGHT risk and inside a 5% risk area for severe weather on Friday (see left). We're just inside a risk for severe weather on Saturday on the 4-8 day outlook. They'll adjust that as more model data comes in this week.

I'll be out of town this weekend and next week for spring break, so there won't be any forecast video or severe weather coverage on Saturday.

3/24 - 8:30pm - Rain, Temperature Drop

We've been really behind on rain for the month of March, and it took me until today to realize just how badly we needed it. At around 1pm today we had a fire drill at school, which required us to walk to the football practice field and stand for a while. The grass on the field was a bright yellow color and crunched underfoot, but the part that got me was the dust cloud that formed over us as we walked on it. I'd say that it's pretty dry! And did I mention that it was 75 degrees for a high today?

A bit of relief is on the way tonight, with rain already showing up to our west on Doppler Plus:



It looks like we'll see about a half inch of rain here tonight as this system ahead of a cold front passes, with some thunder possible. The rain should end at around lunchtime tomorrow and leave us with a high only in the lower 60's. More rain will come through early Thursday, with Saturday looking very wet and maybe even severe at this point. Temperatures will hold in the lower 60's again for Thursday, but we'll warm up to highs in the mid 60's for Friday and Saturday.

Another cold front will come through on late Saturday and temperatures will take a hit. We'll see upper 50's for Sunday, but we'll recover into the lower 60's by Tuesday.

3/23 - 6pm - It's 70 Again

Sitting outside for lunch at around noon today was almost unbearable at 59 degrees, but between noon and now we've improved to 70 degrees. Tomorrow looks even warmer, with temperatures approaching 75 degrees. Showers and storms (non-severe) will begin tomorrow night ahead of a cold front and will continue until just after lunchtime tomorrow.

The temperature drop on Thursday will not be as significant as previous cold fronts this month, because we'll top out in the mid 60's for Thursday. Spotty showers are possible for both Thursday and Friday. More thunderstorms and a cold front come through on Saturday, with a more significant temperature drop next week. We'll see mostly 50's, but I think Sunday could drop just below 50 degrees for a high.

After weeks of warnings, Mount Redoubt in Alaska has finally erupted. Multiple eruptions last night sent ash 50,000+ feet in the air, canceling a few Alaska Airlines flights from Anchorage. A few communities closer to the volcano have experienced light falling ash, but Anchorage has been clear so far. For more information, click here. For current observations, visit the Alaska Volcano Observatory's website.

3/21 - 2:30pm - New Forecast Video

Clouds have now cleared around the Louisville area, making for a clear, chilly day. Temperatures will warm considerably by early next week, with thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday. More warm weather is on the way after the storms, so keep those shorts handy!


(Opening music by Kevin MacLeod)

3/20 - 11:45pm - Spring is Here! (700th Blog Post)

Sorry for the late post everyone, I had a laundry list of things I had to wrap up today.

Spring officially started today at 7:44am, and with temperatures in the 50's it didn't come in with much fanfare. Tomorrow will reach 60 for a high, with 70's on the way for Tuesday and possibly even Wednesday. Rain chances look slim for the weekend, but should go up for Tuesday and Wednesday with an approaching cold front. The good news is that this front will only send us back into the 60's, much less of a drop when compared to this week's cold front that came through.

Cooler weather looks to be holding off for at least another full week, and the strength of the cold air seems to be weakening on the latest GFS model runs. In any case, I think days with highs in the 40's in the coming weeks are numbered.