Looks like we're going to have a mess tonight. We'll see some sleet and freezing rain tonight, changing to all rain by the late night hours. During the early morning hours, that rain will again change to sleet and freezing rain, this time with some snow. I'm not expecting more than an inch of snow, but there could be some ice accumulation. Definitely expect some delays tomorrow.
Northwest of here is a different story, with heavy snow and a Winter Storm Warning. Earlier in the week I thought that we would get this, but the low didn't want to push any further east. Oh well.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
1/30 - 7pm - Snow Track Misses Louisville... Again.
Yep, this one looks like it'll miss us too. I was thinking that there would be a southeastward track change, but it looks like the track instead went northwest. That means we'll get mostly rain and maybe just some snow showers tomorrow night and Friday. I know its a bummer and we've been dealing with it all winter long. There's still a chance it could shift east, but the low has formed and its too close to time for any big changes. Looks like they'll be sledding in St. Louis...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
1/29 - 7:30pm - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
No time for a live video update since this came up so unexpectedly today (I was thinking more of just some lightning and rain), but now we're under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING with winds over 70MPH. You need to keep your flashlights handy over the next hour because we will have mass power outages in the Metro once this thing roars through. Might I also mention that it's COLD on the backside of these storms too, so bundle up tomorrow morning. Remember that we will freeze tonight and any water on the roads will become ice overnight.
1/29 - 6pm - SEVERE WEATHER & SNOW
Okay, I'm in total severe weather mode here folks. Here's the deal:
In the longer range, we have what looks to be a snowstorm in the cards. The GFS and NAM are really poo-pooing this storm with just an inch or so, but the other models are going all out on this one. If the low tracks through E. KY, then we'll get maybe 1-3, if we can get it to the Appalachians, which most models suggest except GFS and NAM, then we're in for a biggin'! I'll say well over 5 inches if we can get that to happen, based on what I've heard (I can't actually get most of these because you have to pay for them monthly, but I hear what they're doing from other meteorologists). I was able to look at the 12z Canadian model though, and it's definitely putting us in that heavy snow area.
Add onto that fire the HPC's latest Snow Accumulation forecast for Friday:
Holy smokes! That's a MODERATE RISK for more that 4 INCHES for us! And we're just miles away from a slight risk for over 8! With that said, our local NWS office is still putting out a 1 inch or so prediction for this storm, but they are using the NAM/GFS combo. I bet that forecast will change though. Speaking of which, AccuWeather is calling for 1.7" and the Weather Channel says just some snow showers. I bet they're using the GFS/NAM combo as well, which would explain that.
This is reminding me of the Dec. 2004 storm in ways you couldn't imagine. Before that storm, we had about 2-3 days notice and even then the models were still in vast disagreement. We also had the same stakes as well: A lot of rain or a lot of snow. We'll see how this works out though. If we still look like over 5 inches tomorrow, then I'll start giving marching orders to prepare for this thing (milk, bread, etc.). Stay calm for now though, because this will change considerably before the snow (or rain) starts falling.
Stay safe!
- We're under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH now, which could get upgraded to a tornado watch later.
- Also under a WIND ADVISORY until 6am tomorrow, gusts up to 45mph outside of storms, way more inside storms.
- Tornado warnings are being issued in E. Illinois right now for several counties, if that trend continues we might see that situation tonight at around 9 - 10pm.
- The temperature will drop 30 degrees once this front passes late tonight. STREETS WILL FLASH FREEZE, along with a quick burst of snow before daybreak (< 1 inch).
In the longer range, we have what looks to be a snowstorm in the cards. The GFS and NAM are really poo-pooing this storm with just an inch or so, but the other models are going all out on this one. If the low tracks through E. KY, then we'll get maybe 1-3, if we can get it to the Appalachians, which most models suggest except GFS and NAM, then we're in for a biggin'! I'll say well over 5 inches if we can get that to happen, based on what I've heard (I can't actually get most of these because you have to pay for them monthly, but I hear what they're doing from other meteorologists). I was able to look at the 12z Canadian model though, and it's definitely putting us in that heavy snow area.
Add onto that fire the HPC's latest Snow Accumulation forecast for Friday:
Holy smokes! That's a MODERATE RISK for more that 4 INCHES for us! And we're just miles away from a slight risk for over 8! With that said, our local NWS office is still putting out a 1 inch or so prediction for this storm, but they are using the NAM/GFS combo. I bet that forecast will change though. Speaking of which, AccuWeather is calling for 1.7" and the Weather Channel says just some snow showers. I bet they're using the GFS/NAM combo as well, which would explain that.
This is reminding me of the Dec. 2004 storm in ways you couldn't imagine. Before that storm, we had about 2-3 days notice and even then the models were still in vast disagreement. We also had the same stakes as well: A lot of rain or a lot of snow. We'll see how this works out though. If we still look like over 5 inches tomorrow, then I'll start giving marching orders to prepare for this thing (milk, bread, etc.). Stay calm for now though, because this will change considerably before the snow (or rain) starts falling.
Stay safe!
Monday, January 28, 2008
1/28 - 6:30pm - Head's UP!!!
If you told me yesterday that the GFS was going put a near-snowstorm over us later this week, I would've sent you to an asylum. Well don't I look sheepish? Here's the 18z for Friday...
The 12z is similar, and might I say there is a fine line between a snowstorm and a rainstorm here. It's close folks. I think we'll definitely get some backside snow, but if we get that blue shaded area just over us in the model as all snow, look out. I'm going to watch this CLOSELY. If we can get this low to go just a little further south, then we've bagged it! That being said, don't get your hopes up yet. I've said things like this many times this season and it all washes up as rain or nothing. Besides, we're still four days out.
I'm just tired of blown snow forecasts and false hopes. If this is our only storm this winter (should I say decade?) then I hope it's good...
The 12z is similar, and might I say there is a fine line between a snowstorm and a rainstorm here. It's close folks. I think we'll definitely get some backside snow, but if we get that blue shaded area just over us in the model as all snow, look out. I'm going to watch this CLOSELY. If we can get this low to go just a little further south, then we've bagged it! That being said, don't get your hopes up yet. I've said things like this many times this season and it all washes up as rain or nothing. Besides, we're still four days out.
I'm just tired of blown snow forecasts and false hopes. If this is our only storm this winter (should I say decade?) then I hope it's good...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
1/25 -7pm - Warming Up!
After a chilly 32 today, temperatures will continue to rise into the 40's and 50's next week. We'll also see increased chances for rain Monday and Tuesday as well.
The GFS (here we go again) is jumping around with an idea for a potent storm Friday of next week. A run of the model this morning just about made the local meteorology sector pop, with nearly a foot of snow. Later runs this afternoon have shifted the low back west, obviously with more rain than snow. I'm going to keep my eye on this one because it looks like an all or nothing storm. If we do get the snow side of this one, watch out.
The GFS (here we go again) is jumping around with an idea for a potent storm Friday of next week. A run of the model this morning just about made the local meteorology sector pop, with nearly a foot of snow. Later runs this afternoon have shifted the low back west, obviously with more rain than snow. I'm going to keep my eye on this one because it looks like an all or nothing storm. If we do get the snow side of this one, watch out.
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