After a warmer weekend, chilly weather sets in for the beginning of the workweek. A snowstorm that was forecast to hit us on Monday has now veered off to the east, so we won't see any problems with snow next week. Warmer weather should set in by Thursday.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
1/30 - 4:30pm - Models Having Difficulties
The models I mentioned earlier are still going way off to the east with this Monday storm, except for the NAM now:
That's a definite westward shift from earlier runs of the NAM, so we'll see if this spreads to other models. I still smell something fishy. The way that just about every model shifted this storm way off to the east in one model run really doesn't make sense. I think we'll see flip-flopping over the next few runs, but the easterly solution that the GFS and ECMWF are portraying probably won't stay. We'll have to see if this reverts back to where we were last night or if this stays just to our east.
For the time being, we'll warm up tomorrow into the 30s and into the mid 40s on Sunday. LG&E is now reporting 174,000 without power, which is up a bit due to trees falling in the wind and other factors. I've been listening to the Mayor's press conference, and he's really emphasizing safety with generators and carbon monoxide problems. Remember: Do not use generators or grills inside your house or garage. Keep those appliances away from your home and windows to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. There have been fatalities in the area due to carbon monoxide, so be very careful if you are using a generator or other similar appliance. There probably aren't very many people reading this blog who do not have power (unless on a mobile device), but pass this information along to those who don't have power if you can.
That's a definite westward shift from earlier runs of the NAM, so we'll see if this spreads to other models. I still smell something fishy. The way that just about every model shifted this storm way off to the east in one model run really doesn't make sense. I think we'll see flip-flopping over the next few runs, but the easterly solution that the GFS and ECMWF are portraying probably won't stay. We'll have to see if this reverts back to where we were last night or if this stays just to our east.
For the time being, we'll warm up tomorrow into the 30s and into the mid 40s on Sunday. LG&E is now reporting 174,000 without power, which is up a bit due to trees falling in the wind and other factors. I've been listening to the Mayor's press conference, and he's really emphasizing safety with generators and carbon monoxide problems. Remember: Do not use generators or grills inside your house or garage. Keep those appliances away from your home and windows to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. There have been fatalities in the area due to carbon monoxide, so be very careful if you are using a generator or other similar appliance. There probably aren't very many people reading this blog who do not have power (unless on a mobile device), but pass this information along to those who don't have power if you can.
1/30 - 10:15pm - Monday Snow Going East?
The latest GFS, NAM, and even the ECMWF (Euro) are taking our storm on Monday well to the east now. It's strange how all the models changed at once last night with this shift. I'm not sold on the far eastern track that it's taking, but I'm beginning to think that the models I posted yesterday are too far west. We'll see how this shapes up today and tomorrow.
The latest numbers from LG&E show that 172,000 are still without power and 11,329 lines are down. Still looks like 7-10 days before everyone gets power back.
The latest numbers from LG&E show that 172,000 are still without power and 11,329 lines are down. Still looks like 7-10 days before everyone gets power back.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
1/29 - 9pm - Monday Looking Increasingly Interesting
First off, LG&E is reporting 190,000 without power right now. This is up a bit from last check due to more trees falling as the day went on. For a map of the current power outage estimates in Jefferson County, click here. A state-wide map can be found here.
On to the next storm, which could be a whopper if things fall into place. An area of low pressure surging north from the Gulf of Mexico should cool things down on Monday from the near 50 degree temperatures we'll have on Sunday. The accompanying precipitation with this storm will be impressive to say the least, maybe even historic. Here's the latest model outputs:
18z GFS
12z ECMWF (European)
18z DGEX
Notice how all three of these models offer a similar track for the intense low, which is west of where it was forecast to go yesterday. The Canadian (posted yesterday) looks about the same, but has shifted west slightly. You're probably looking at the darker greens and blues on the GFS and DGEX and saying "Uh-oh." I'm saying the same thing. Look at this preliminary accumulation estimate taken from the GFS for this storm:
Yeah, that's 6-8" at a 10:1 rain/snow ratio. Here's the problem: we'll be operating at a ratio that could get higher than 12:1 during the coldest part of the storm, when the freezing line at the surface sinks way south of here. These totals could be nearing 12" if that happens.
We're still four days away, so things could change. The daunting issue is that the models are agreeing on this storm pretty well. I think there is a chance that it could correct eastward, but I'm only seeing westward trends at this point. If this low track changes slightly and pulls up more moisture from the Gulf, we could be dealing with a historic storm. It will be interesting to see what happens. Again, whatever happens on the models this weekend will be the deciding factor on whether Louisville, Lexington, or somewhere further east gets the brunt of this storm.
On to the next storm, which could be a whopper if things fall into place. An area of low pressure surging north from the Gulf of Mexico should cool things down on Monday from the near 50 degree temperatures we'll have on Sunday. The accompanying precipitation with this storm will be impressive to say the least, maybe even historic. Here's the latest model outputs:
18z GFS
12z ECMWF (European)
18z DGEX
Notice how all three of these models offer a similar track for the intense low, which is west of where it was forecast to go yesterday. The Canadian (posted yesterday) looks about the same, but has shifted west slightly. You're probably looking at the darker greens and blues on the GFS and DGEX and saying "Uh-oh." I'm saying the same thing. Look at this preliminary accumulation estimate taken from the GFS for this storm:
Yeah, that's 6-8" at a 10:1 rain/snow ratio. Here's the problem: we'll be operating at a ratio that could get higher than 12:1 during the coldest part of the storm, when the freezing line at the surface sinks way south of here. These totals could be nearing 12" if that happens.
We're still four days away, so things could change. The daunting issue is that the models are agreeing on this storm pretty well. I think there is a chance that it could correct eastward, but I'm only seeing westward trends at this point. If this low track changes slightly and pulls up more moisture from the Gulf, we could be dealing with a historic storm. It will be interesting to see what happens. Again, whatever happens on the models this weekend will be the deciding factor on whether Louisville, Lexington, or somewhere further east gets the brunt of this storm.
1/29 - 12pm - A Snow-Covered Morning
The latest numbers put Louisville at 183,000 without power. That's an improvement, but still a very high number.
The latest GFS still has that storm on Monday giving us quite a bit of snow. The Canadian is still doing the East Coast solution with little snow, but all the other major models are going more westerly with more snow here. Could this really be a second storm for us? We should know this weekend.
The latest GFS still has that storm on Monday giving us quite a bit of snow. The Canadian is still doing the East Coast solution with little snow, but all the other major models are going more westerly with more snow here. Could this really be a second storm for us? We should know this weekend.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
1/28 - 11pm - New Power Outage Numbers
LG&E is now reporting 205,000 customers without power in Louisville. That is way up from the estimate of 100,000 this afternoon. I'm surprised that I have power right now, especially after I lost power last night for a few hours.
1/28 - 7:30pm - A Cold Night for Many
As night descends on a city where many are without power, a low near 10 degrees does not sound good at all. This will be a rough week and weekend because temperatures will not even break the freezing mark until Sunday (when we get into the 40s). A little light snow on Friday will freshen up the snow on the ground across the area, but nothing more than a dusting will come of this. I'm more worried about the winds that could come with this system, topping 20mph in some cases. This could cause more ice-covered limbs to fall, meaning more power outages. I can already tell that "snow" has become a four-letter word around the area, with the word "ice" rising to a whole new level of vulgarity.
Whether you like snow or not, there is a possibility for a snowstorm on Monday. The GFS and DGEX are showing a storm in here during the day on Monday and lasting into Tuesday morning:
18z GFS
18z DGEX
I've been watching this develop on the models for a couple of days now and it's been fairly consistent. A little ray of hope for those who dislike snow is Canadian model, which is taking the brunt of this storm to our east:
12z Canadian
At any rate, I don't think this storm will harbor any ice due to the relatively cool temperatures forecast to be present at 850mb (5000 feet). This is certainly a storm to keep tabs on through the weekend.
Whether you like snow or not, there is a possibility for a snowstorm on Monday. The GFS and DGEX are showing a storm in here during the day on Monday and lasting into Tuesday morning:
18z GFS
18z DGEX
I've been watching this develop on the models for a couple of days now and it's been fairly consistent. A little ray of hope for those who dislike snow is Canadian model, which is taking the brunt of this storm to our east:
12z Canadian
At any rate, I don't think this storm will harbor any ice due to the relatively cool temperatures forecast to be present at 850mb (5000 feet). This is certainly a storm to keep tabs on through the weekend.
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