If you know anyone in the Kansas City area or in the KS to MO area, kindly give them a call and tell them to TURN THEIR WEATHER RADIOS ON!!! There is a huge hook-echo (with tornado reported on the ground) heading just south of KS City. There will be many more of these as the night progresses throughout the plains/midwest.
As for us, we're still in the cross hairs. We aren't in as good a chance for severe/tornadoes as MS, AL, or GA is. The fact of the matter still stands that there is a threat and still a pretty good chance of severe storms tomorrow. We are on the border of a Slight to Moderate risk area, but I'm willing to guess that we're almost just as susceptible to tornadoes and hail as the area just inside that moderate risk area.
Many meteorologists are calling for mass weather radio activations. Remember: a weather radio is just as important as a smoke detector!
I'll get into full severe weather mode tomorrow and make posts when possible. If super cells develop, I'll probably out there with my video camera. A super cell is cool because it is so small and compact that you can see it in the distance and see it coming towards you. They also breed tornadoes, just like the super cell SW of Kansas City that is currently producing one.
Get ready!!!
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Get Your Weather Radios Ready!!!
Thursday afternoon looks scarier and scarier as consecutive instability/moisture models come out. There is massive instability working its way in here on Thursday on the CAPE model:
The energy is just impressive here, that's all I can say. The tornado models also have quite a risk in here too. What I'm REALLY concerned about (and excited to see) is the strong possibility for small isolated supercells. These supercells do breed tornadoes, but I'm still a little iffy on a strong tornado threat. There is a threat of tornadoes though, its just not clear how much these supercells have to work with in terms of tornadic elements.
YOU NEED TO TURN YOUR WEATHER RADIOS ON THURSDAY!!! These cells develop quickly and spin up tornadoes with very little warning. I would say we are at a pretty decent risk for some nasty supercells as I said above. If you don't believe me, look what the NWS has to say:
The energy is just impressive here, that's all I can say. The tornado models also have quite a risk in here too. What I'm REALLY concerned about (and excited to see) is the strong possibility for small isolated supercells. These supercells do breed tornadoes, but I'm still a little iffy on a strong tornado threat. There is a threat of tornadoes though, its just not clear how much these supercells have to work with in terms of tornadic elements.
YOU NEED TO TURN YOUR WEATHER RADIOS ON THURSDAY!!! These cells develop quickly and spin up tornadoes with very little warning. I would say we are at a pretty decent risk for some nasty supercells as I said above. If you don't believe me, look what the NWS has to say:
THE NAM THEN INDICATES DEVELOPMENT(LINEAR MCS
POSSIBLY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS)ON THE FRONT BY 21Z THU.
I'll update you tomorrow as this situation becomes more apparent.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Did I Speak Too Soon?
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WELL AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
Yeah, I think I did speak too soon. Yesterday, we were seeing a southward movement of this low pressure. This would correspond with the severe threat moving south too. Today, there has been some northward movement of that low and the instability readings are coming in better for Thursday.
So yes, our severe threat has indeed gone up. I'm not sure as to the extent of the threat, but I'm sure we'll know on Wednesday.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
Spotter activation is when citizen weather observers call in reports of hail, wind, or tornadoes. This statement was posted on the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Anytime this statement pops up on the HWO, I get a little nervous. This usually means the fine folks at the Louisville NWS have a gut feeling about a system. If they are a little iffy, it says something like "Spotters are encouraged to monitor the situation and further forecasts". But no, this is straight forward.
Also, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) put out this interesting little bit too:
As for that crazy thing that I talked about yesterday, it is still on there. Although we are now warmer with it so the snow would be much less. Just something fun to think about though...
EXPECTED WELL AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
Yeah, I think I did speak too soon. Yesterday, we were seeing a southward movement of this low pressure. This would correspond with the severe threat moving south too. Today, there has been some northward movement of that low and the instability readings are coming in better for Thursday.
So yes, our severe threat has indeed gone up. I'm not sure as to the extent of the threat, but I'm sure we'll know on Wednesday.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
Spotter activation is when citizen weather observers call in reports of hail, wind, or tornadoes. This statement was posted on the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Anytime this statement pops up on the HWO, I get a little nervous. This usually means the fine folks at the Louisville NWS have a gut feeling about a system. If they are a little iffy, it says something like "Spotters are encouraged to monitor the situation and further forecasts". But no, this is straight forward.
Also, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) put out this interesting little bit too:
HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERELooking at the GFS, there isn't a huge amount of moisture with this, but nevertheless there is some. Sometimes more moisture corresponds with a soaker instead of a rumbler, but that's just a hunch/hypothesis. Looking at the wind charts, there is some really strong winds with this. As with any severe weather outbreak, there are factors like sunlight and instability that will play a key role in severity.
STORMS WILL BE IN THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION (That's us) EWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED.
A little ominous, don't you think?
As for that crazy thing that I talked about yesterday, it is still on there. Although we are now warmer with it so the snow would be much less. Just something fun to think about though...
Sunday, February 25, 2007
372 Hours Out? Yeah Right GFS.
I love how the GFS model teases us with these petty little storms so far out in the model timing. Look at this:
This is on March 12th really late at night. **IF** this were to occur, we could see more than a foot of snow. Here are three reasons why you shouldn't care:
Aside from loony model runs and crazy long-range forecasting, today was again wet. We picked up .14" of rain since midnight at my house. There will be some rain on Thursday, but the storms will head south to about the same area that got tornadoes yesterday. We should be just soggy though...
This is on March 12th really late at night. **IF** this were to occur, we could see more than a foot of snow. Here are three reasons why you shouldn't care:
- THIS IS 372 HOURS AWAY FROM NOW!!! The model has episodes this far out.
- The 540 line is right over us, which with our luck will probably go north of us
- The low could shift north or south with consecutive models
Aside from loony model runs and crazy long-range forecasting, today was again wet. We picked up .14" of rain since midnight at my house. There will be some rain on Thursday, but the storms will head south to about the same area that got tornadoes yesterday. We should be just soggy though...
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Rain, More Rain, and Then Some More.
No forecast video today. I can't escape this awful cold/virus thing that took my voice from me. Really, you don't want to hear my voice. It sounds like a duck whose voice cracks when it quacks.
We have had .58" of rain at my house today, most coming down in the afternoon hours. We're in this sort of soggy weather impasse as there is severe weather to our south and a snowstorm (...sniffle...) to our north.
It also looks like our Thursday rain event will be the same as today with storms to the south and snow to the north, while we sit here and drown. I need something, a snowstorm, a severe weather outbreak, or whatever. I need to appease my extreme weather drive thats been plaguing me since November. I just need something to get excited about weatherwise!
Oh, I'll pull myself together here and look forward. There's been four reports of tornadoes today in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. Sounds like Louisiana got a bad one, several homes were reportedly destroyed in the northeastern part of the state.
Not too much else to say here. There are sporadic chances for snow showers here late next week, but I have given up on snow. After so many missed chances for some record snow, we sit here and count flurries. Like I said before, Indianapolis is only a short distance from here, but they have gotten exponentially more snow than we have. As they say in French: Je veux beaucoup des orages!
We have had .58" of rain at my house today, most coming down in the afternoon hours. We're in this sort of soggy weather impasse as there is severe weather to our south and a snowstorm (...sniffle...) to our north.
It also looks like our Thursday rain event will be the same as today with storms to the south and snow to the north, while we sit here and drown. I need something, a snowstorm, a severe weather outbreak, or whatever. I need to appease my extreme weather drive thats been plaguing me since November. I just need something to get excited about weatherwise!
Oh, I'll pull myself together here and look forward. There's been four reports of tornadoes today in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. Sounds like Louisiana got a bad one, several homes were reportedly destroyed in the northeastern part of the state.
Not too much else to say here. There are sporadic chances for snow showers here late next week, but I have given up on snow. After so many missed chances for some record snow, we sit here and count flurries. Like I said before, Indianapolis is only a short distance from here, but they have gotten exponentially more snow than we have. As they say in French: Je veux beaucoup des orages!
Friday, February 23, 2007
Severe Weather Threat SW of Us
We were able to sneak out of the severe weather threat for Saturday, but those who have it are in for it. OK, TX, and KS could see a huge severe weather outbreak with a sizable amount of tornadoes. Gosh, I would just love to go storm chasing out there tomorrow. Anybody have a spare plane ticket to Tulsa or Oklahoma City that departs tonight?
Anyway, all will be rainy here tomorrow night and Sunday. But, that's it really.
Longer range, we're looking for some similar storm activity to happen late next week. Again, we'll have to see if there is any severe weather that accompanies this system. I'm having a tough time deciding what will happen next week because the GFS is really acting funny. Anything past Tuesday of next week is real sketchy at this point. Who knows, maybe this is an omen to a surprise frozen/severe system next week that we can't forecast.
There may not be a forecast video tomorrow. I have this awful viral/cold thing and my voice is just awful. Sorry!
Anyway, all will be rainy here tomorrow night and Sunday. But, that's it really.
Longer range, we're looking for some similar storm activity to happen late next week. Again, we'll have to see if there is any severe weather that accompanies this system. I'm having a tough time deciding what will happen next week because the GFS is really acting funny. Anything past Tuesday of next week is real sketchy at this point. Who knows, maybe this is an omen to a surprise frozen/severe system next week that we can't forecast.
There may not be a forecast video tomorrow. I have this awful viral/cold thing and my voice is just awful. Sorry!
Thursday, February 22, 2007
The Newest Models say...
Severe weather for Saturday is out. The instability won't be great enough and the timing is way too late in the evening for it to happen. It will storm, but nothing to go into your basement about:
Another storm next week could provide another chance for severe weather, but still too early too tell. I don't see any return to winter in the models though. So snow lovers, this looks like the end. Severe weather lovers, your number is coming up...
Another storm next week could provide another chance for severe weather, but still too early too tell. I don't see any return to winter in the models though. So snow lovers, this looks like the end. Severe weather lovers, your number is coming up...
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