5/20 - 11:20am CDT - Off to Western Oklahoma

After a not-as-good-as-we-thought-it-would-be day yesterday, we're off to Western Oklahoma in search of storms that will likely fire this afternoon behind an already ongoing line of storms in the central and eastern part of the state. Upper-level winds should be supportive of storms that could fire this afternoon, but we're still waiting for the atmosphere to recover behind the ongoing storms this morning. Short-range models indicate ample moisture with decent instability in the western part of the state. The dry line, which you can easily see in the dew point forecast image below, will provide a focus for storm formation as outflow boundaries from this morning's storms interact with it. This interaction will create lift to get storms going this afternoon. Temperatures aloft will still be a little cool for really good isolated storm development, but we'll take what we can get.


Be sure to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates this afternoon!

5/20 - 9:30am CDT - Bust Yesterday in Kansas

Cool temperatures aloft kept storms from being isolated in Kansas yesterday, resulting in a plethora of individual cells that quickly formed a line. Since each cell cut-off the other's inflow, none of these storms could get strong enough to produce a good tornado. There were a few brief tornadoes and funnels yesterday, but nothing worth writing home about. We were able to intercept a cell near Wilson, Kansas before it became completely linear yesterday and saw a rapidly rotating wall cloud with many finger-like funnels. Check out the video below to see it in action!



That storm had a history of producing a brief tornado, but the cell was moving too fast to intercept it at that point. After we left that storm, we traveled down to just north of Dodge City, KS, where an isolated supercell developed in the untapped warm air. We briefly saw what we thought to be a rope tornado from a few miles away, but it was too far to tell. This cell was spectacular for the few minutes that it stayed isolated yesterday and I was able to snap a gorgeous panorama of it as the sun went down:

I'll have an update from the road later on this morning... not quite sure if we'll chase in Oklahoma today or just head back to Amarillo so that our guests can prepare for their departure tomorrow.

5/19 - 9:15am CDT - Let's Hope This One Works Out...

Today could be a big day in Tornado Alley. All the right ingredients seem to be coming together for quiet a severe weather event in Central Kansas this afternoon. Ample instability, upper-level winds from the southwest, surface east winds, and dew points possibly getting into the mid 60's this afternoon will fuel this event, which will likely produce the discrete or isolated supercell thunderstorms that we've been longing to chase all week. The fly in the ointment this morning is that there is a rather large cloud shield over the state that needs to move northeast before anything can happen. The sooner this happens, the better. Also, there's a dry slot aloft in the Oklahoma Panhandle that needs to make it here by this afternoon (that shouldn't be too much of an issue). If either of these things fail to happen, we could be stuck with a situation like yesterday where no storms form.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Central Kansas this afternoon with a 10% hatched tornado risk. This is the biggest tornado risk that they've issued since I've been in Tornado Alley these two weeks so far. Here's an interesting tidbit from the SPC's discussion this morning:

A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THE EARLY EVENING COULD RESULT IN A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IN THIS AREA.

Pretty strong wording, no? Let's hope it all pans out for our sake and for all the other chasers out there who are starving for some activity.


 



Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest photos and updates this afternoon!

5/19 - 12:45am CDT - Bust Today, Better Tomorrow?

Frustrating. There's no other way to put it. We had storms blowing up and developing before our eyes this afternoon in Oklahoma only to have a cirrus cloud shield develop in the upper levels of the atmosphere and squash any further development. Just about all the other conditions were right for this severe weather event, but the cloud shield made sure that nothing would form. A few linear storms along the warm front surging north this even have formed, but they should be out of Kansas pretty soon.

Speaking of Kansas, that's where all the action will likely be tomorrow. Upper level winds will be stronger tomorrow than today, but this time over Kansas. We're hoping that a dry slot aloft moving into the region later this evening (see right satellite image) will decrease the chances of an inhibiting cirrus shield forming tomorrow like it did today. Temperatures at 700mb will be less than optimal (need 10C or higher, but we may only have 8-9C tomorrow), so a shot of dry air will definitely be needed to keep clouds from forming in the cooler temperatures up there. Otherwise, I like the setup since winds and moisture will be wrapping around the northeast side of a low centered in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Easterly winds should stick around in Central Kansas beceause  The cap (warm layer of air aloft) should break sometime after 4pm or so tomorrow based on output from the NAM computer model.

With all of these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow across Central Kansas with a 10% tornado risk tacked on. Could this be upgraded to a Moderate Risk? I think so if this dry slot aloft comes in and keeps the upper air clear tomorrow. We also have to be sure that no storms develop over Central Kansas tomorrow morning, which seems unlikely at this point. After two big severe weather busts in the past couple weeks, we're hoping tomorrow will be the charm!

Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook tomorrow for all the latest updates from our chase!

5/18 - 9:30am CDT - We're Back to Chasing!

It's been a long start to the week since there haven't been any storms to chase here in the Great Plains. That changes today. We're on our way to Oklahoma in search of tornadoes this afternoon, and I think the potential is looking pretty good considering how things have been this week. Moisture is still going to be an issue, but surface dew points should recover somewhat today. That recovery will take time, so storms may not form until later in the afternoon. Easterly winds at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft at 500mb (18,000 ft) should create ample shear for today's setup, meaning any supercells that form will stay discrete and have the associated tornado risk with them. CAPE or instability shouldn't be a problem based on the modeling for this afternoon and the cap (warm updraft-inhibiting layer of air aloft) should break sometime after 3pm. Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon for much of Southwest Kansas and Western Oklahoma with a 5% tornado risk for the Panhandle region through Southwest Oklahoma.


Be sure to follow my updates on Facebook and Twitter for the latest on our storm chasing adventures this afternoon!

5/17 - 12:45am MDT - Back to Texas Tomorrow!

Surface dew points at 7pm CDT Wednesday from the 0z GFS

We'll be heading back to Central Texas tomorrow so that we can prepare for Wednesday's severe weather risk in that region. The latest 0z model runs (hence the late blog post) have come back with decent results, especially when it comes to the moisture return to the region that we'll need for the Wednesday through Friday's severe weather risks. The NAM and GFS models are both expecting dew points to be in the middle 60's in Central Texas on Wednesday afternoon, which is within the range needed for severe storm development. 500mb winds may not be the best, out of the west-southwest at around 30kt, but that should be enough upper-level support for this "entry-level" event for the week. With the upper wind support, surface heating, and high dew points, instability or CAPE will be in the 2000 J/kg, which again is good enough. These factors plus the presence of the dryline (boundary between moist air in the East US and dry air in the West US) should squeeze out a discrete supercell thunderstorm or two provided that the cap (inhibiting warm layer of air above the surface) doesn't stick around too late. The tornado risk isn't huge because of the higher bases these storms may have, but it's certainly not nonexistent.

We'll plan out an exact target area as we're driving later today and we'll refine it even more tomorrow morning. Thursday and Friday will have higher numbers for these variables across the board, so we can expect an enhanced storm chasing setup then. Should be an interesting mid to late week!

Don't forget to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest chase updates!

5/16 - 12:45pm MDT - Touring New Mexico

We just toured Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico and are getting ready to hike around the Guadalupe Mountains near the Texas/New Mexico border. It looks like this will be our last day of "touristy" things as the risk for severe weather increases tomorrow. While it won't be a big risk tomorrow, some moisture will be streaming back into the Southern Plains and we may chase a few elevated thunderstorms that form in the evening. Of course the bigger risk is still Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, so we'll continue to monitor that. The return of moisture into the region may be better than previously thought, so this could be a good end to the week! I'll have a more detailed discussion on that setup tonight once some new computer model runs come in. Check out this panoramic photo I shot of the view from Carlsbad Caverns today: