12/8 - 4pm - What a Warm Up!

We barely got above freezing yesterday, had a little freezing rain this morning, and now its 50 degrees! Wow! Temperatures are going to really ramp up as a cold front approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly up to 60 by tomorrow afternoon. I know it says 45 on the 7-day forecast at ryanweather.org, but this warm up has really been coming into the models just over the past 36 hours. What a nice treat for December!

If you're the snow-loving type, then this is not good news for you. We're going to see buckets of rain from tonight into Wednesday, possibly over 2 inches. If the system tracks north, we could see even more than that. As the rain tapers off on Wednesday, we could see a few snow showers or flurries, but that's about it.

There's an area of low pressure that will drive north from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and its possible that we could see some snow from it. Its debatable as to whether it will go east or west of the Appalachian Mountains at this point, which will ultimately decide if we get snow. We would want it to go west in this case, but not too far west. Temperatures could also be a problem as we're going to be right on the freezing line according to the GFS. I honestly think this system will be a dud for us and go too far east, but let's see what happens.

12/6 - 4:15pm - New Forecast Video

The snow has tapered off for the day and temperatures are now getting above freezing. Expect some rain next week, and could we get some snow next weekend? We'll see!

12/5 - 4pm - Frigid Temps Around the Area

Sorry for all the late posts this week... it's been crazy around here! I promise to have a video forecast by tomorrow afternoon. There was no video forecast last weekend due to my being out of town.

The low in Louisville Metro was 19 degrees this morning and it really did feel that cold! We're only at 29 degrees right now, so not too much increase in temperature occurred at all today. We'll stay in the 30's for the weekend, with a possible flurry or snow shower tomorrow night. We're still on track for our rain/snow mix on Monday night through Wednesday. The models are still warm on this, so I'm thinking little or no accumulation in the periods of snow that we do see during that time frame. It still looks pretty cold for the rest of next week after Thursday and well into the week after. If we're going to get some snow, I'd wager on some within that cold period sometime. Still too early to say exactly when and how.

12/4 - 10pm - It's Cold Now and We're Just Getting Started

It is going to be downright frigid for tomorrow as our temperatures won't get much above freezing. We're still on for some snow showers on Saturday, but the big question is early next week.

There are some foreign forecast models (Euro, etc.) that have been saying we could get one mighty snowstorm on Tuesday-Wednesday, but I don't buy it. From what I see, we're going to be too warm for this. I like the local NWS office forecast of some possible snow on Tuesday night, but the rest would be rain. The low pressure track seems to be going in the right direction for us to get this "mighty" storm, but our surface temps won't cut it. Unless there's a correction in the US models that would bring in a colder batch of air, I'm going to stick with mostly rain on this one. We got burned last week when we had a storm on the GFS for us, and then it got too warm on subsequent runs. The Euro and other foreign models continued to show a snowstorm for a couple more runs than the GFS, so I'm going to assume this is a similar situation. It does concern me that the low track would indicate a good batch of precipitation and that the freezing line is not too far off, so we'll just have to watch for any changes.

Speaking of next week, get ready for some really cold air after the front associated with that Tuesday-Wednesday system goes through. Highs could struggle to get into the 30's after Thursday, so get out your big jackets if you haven't done so already! I think this cold air could support a snowstorm for us and the GFS agrees, so keep in mind that we could be dealing with accumulations after next weekend.

12/3 - 9pm - Rain Coming Through Now, A Little Snow Later

Doppler Plus is showing the rain that's coming through the area as we speak:



As the cold front associated with this rain comes through tonight, we may have a few flurries or snow showers in the early morning hours. Little or no accumulation is expected. Watch out on the bridges and overpasses tomorrow morning as temperatures could hit or go below freezing tonight.

This front will leave us cold and dry through the weekend, with highs only in the 30s. A few sprinkles or snow showers will make their way into the area by Saturday as a clipper (low pressure from Canada) passes to our north.

Rain looks likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the possibility of some wet snow on the backside of this system. Too much warm air will accompany the front for any good snow, but I think we could see a brief period of snow as low pressure wraps around and heads up to the Northeast.

I've said this a few times over the last few days and I think we're starting to see the fruition of it on the models. Cold, very cold air is getting ready to sit on us from Canada and storms are ripe and ready to ride along the southern edge of that trough. The GFS is throwing major hints that we could see something late next weekend. I won't go into date or amount specifics, but with all this cold air coming and storms riding the southern edge, I'm inclined to think we could see an accumulating snow within the next couple weeks. We'll see if this can hold up on the models for the next few days.

12/2 - 7pm - A Short Warm Up

We're in for a treat tomorrow as highs soar into the lower 50s. Rain should come into the area by nightfall and will end as a brief period of snow showers by the early morning hours. No accumulation is expected tonight. This front will really put a cap on our temperatures over the next few days, with highs in the 30s from Thursday to Sunday. A few flurries or snow showers are possible by Saturday as a clipper system passes to our north, but shouldn't pose a chance of accumulation.

Rain will again enter the forecast by Monday with highs back in the 40s. It still looks like we'll see an active pattern starting in a little over a week from now, so get ready for the drama of accumulating snow in the forecast.

12/1 - 4:30pm - A Few More Snow Showers, Meteorological Winter

Welcome to the first day of meteorological winter! Even though astronomical winter starts on December 22nd, meteorologists consider this day the start of Winter due to the winter-like weather we get in the Northern Hemisphere around this time. And boy did we get some today!

It was one of those moments in multiple classrooms across Kentuckiana where someone would suddenly shout, "It's SNOWING!!!" Much to the dismay of most, the snow did not stick because we were well below freezing when it started falling at 12:30 this afternoon in the downtown area. What appears to be the last batch of snow showers is coming out of Indiana as we speak and they should arrive in the next hour or so. We're still at 36 degrees, so even a dusting looks out of the question at this point. I thought we would've at least seen a coating of snow on the grass this morning in the Metro, but the temperature only bottomed out at 35.

If you don't like the cold air that came with this system, don't worry. We'll warm up into the lower 40's tomorrow and shoot for lower 50's on Wednesday with some rain. That rain could end as a period of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We'll drop back into the 30's for Thursday and into the weekend as well. A few snow showers could be around for Saturday and Sunday as a clipper system passes to our north.

Stay tuned... we're going into an active pattern starting next week. Too early to predict any one storm at the moment, but I think we'll have our hands full for the next few weeks trying to decipher the track of each.