Hmmm... Sorry about this one folks, it looks like the Thursday storm will be only an inch or so of snow. We're getting starved for moisture and it even looks like (gasp) that we could get a little rain too, as temperatures will be a little higher than expected. This makes many of us sad. I feel your pain.
BUT! Snow-lovers keep the faith! There are two more storms on their way, one on Monday and a possible whopper next Friday. The Monday one won't be too strong, with maybe an inch or just over that. The Friday one is changing track a lot. The latest GFS has a huge storm here on that one, but previous runs have it all over the place. So I'm not real confident about that one.
So, we can still get some snow, but that Thursday fizzle isn't resting too easy with me. Winter is half-over...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Monday, January 14, 2008
1/14 - 7:20pm - Today Was Just a Preview.
How about that snow this morning? Makes me thankful that I go to school really early, because the rush-hour delays due to the .5" of snow were terrible.
As I hinted to, this is only the beginning. The next chance for snow comes Thurs-Fri, which seems to be a pretty good bet for some snow. How much is the question. I'm going to hazard a guess for 2-3 inches at the moment by Friday evening. This WILL change because this total depends on two separate systems, which can both change in track before then. The NAM is shooting for a sizable storm, but the GFS is being stubborn again. The GFS has blown the track on multiple storms this year. The NAM has a much cleaner record.
The Saturday storm I talked a couple days ago has really toned down, but this clipper could still add on to our snow on the ground (hopefully).
A much bigger storm is on the horizon by Monday, which may or may not include a little ice and rain. We're still 7-days out on this one, but I think this one has more snow potential than the two storms coming up in the short term.
Beyond that we're looking for more 20's and 30's with storm after storm racing through this region. We're really going to have to keep an eye out for each storm here. This is what Winter SHOULD be like, not 70 and sunny like last week. I think this is way more exciting than that pattern.
As I hinted to, this is only the beginning. The next chance for snow comes Thurs-Fri, which seems to be a pretty good bet for some snow. How much is the question. I'm going to hazard a guess for 2-3 inches at the moment by Friday evening. This WILL change because this total depends on two separate systems, which can both change in track before then. The NAM is shooting for a sizable storm, but the GFS is being stubborn again. The GFS has blown the track on multiple storms this year. The NAM has a much cleaner record.
The Saturday storm I talked a couple days ago has really toned down, but this clipper could still add on to our snow on the ground (hopefully).
A much bigger storm is on the horizon by Monday, which may or may not include a little ice and rain. We're still 7-days out on this one, but I think this one has more snow potential than the two storms coming up in the short term.
Beyond that we're looking for more 20's and 30's with storm after storm racing through this region. We're really going to have to keep an eye out for each storm here. This is what Winter SHOULD be like, not 70 and sunny like last week. I think this is way more exciting than that pattern.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
1/12 -12pm - 7-day Forecast, Video Later
I don't have enough time this morning for a video forecast, but I was able to get the 7-day done. Expect a video later this afternoon. I'll be saying the word "snow" a lot in this one...
Friday, January 11, 2008
1/11 - 11pm - Patience Brings Snow...
There will be no big snow this weekend. That's all I have to say! Just a few short waves, a dusting here or there, and then it leaves.
I'm more interested in late next week. Very interested.
2 storms are looking to set up shop in the east on Thurs/Fri and then again on Saturday. I'm more optimistic on the Thurs/Fri storm because the temperatures are right and the moisture is in place. This is what I'd call a small storm, but I think we could at least see SOME accumulation.
The Saturday storm is not as likely, but the stakes are higher. If we can get some westward movement of this storm, it could be incredible. The problem is that the current pattern we're in is funneling these storms up the coast, not the Appalachians. But really, if this thing starts showing signs of going west, you bet I'll be excited.
So I think the Thurs/Fri storm is a safer bet, but it'd be nice to get a licking from the Saturday one (for all you snow lovers). I've been poking around the web this afternoon and read some interesting discussions on various weather blogs. It seems as if we're setting up for quite a cold and stormy flow in here in a couple weeks. Apparently there is some indications that the air that's been building in the Arctic is just going to let loose, while at the same time allowing Gulf and Pacific moisture flow into the East. That's just fancy talk for more snow for us later on this month. I hope for snow's sake that this will happen. It's time to have a normal Winter for once!
I'm more interested in late next week. Very interested.
2 storms are looking to set up shop in the east on Thurs/Fri and then again on Saturday. I'm more optimistic on the Thurs/Fri storm because the temperatures are right and the moisture is in place. This is what I'd call a small storm, but I think we could at least see SOME accumulation.
The Saturday storm is not as likely, but the stakes are higher. If we can get some westward movement of this storm, it could be incredible. The problem is that the current pattern we're in is funneling these storms up the coast, not the Appalachians. But really, if this thing starts showing signs of going west, you bet I'll be excited.
So I think the Thurs/Fri storm is a safer bet, but it'd be nice to get a licking from the Saturday one (for all you snow lovers). I've been poking around the web this afternoon and read some interesting discussions on various weather blogs. It seems as if we're setting up for quite a cold and stormy flow in here in a couple weeks. Apparently there is some indications that the air that's been building in the Arctic is just going to let loose, while at the same time allowing Gulf and Pacific moisture flow into the East. That's just fancy talk for more snow for us later on this month. I hope for snow's sake that this will happen. It's time to have a normal Winter for once!
Thursday, January 10, 2008
1/10 - 9pm - Quicky Update
This January has been just incredible so far. Tornadoes, wind, and now even snow!? What more can a meteorology freak want? It looks like we're done with the storms for now, but snow is on its way. It looks like we'll get some of the stuff in a light amount this weekend (Sun-Mon). As with any system there is a risk it will be more intense than anticipated. It doesn't look like that right now, but any movement west with this system would bring a much bigger storm. But for now it looks light...
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
1/8 - 5pm - I'm Baaaaack -> TORNADO WATCH!
I thought I just cleaned up this place before I left! Now we're dealing with severe weather, warm temperatures, and even the Kentucky Snow Ghost is showing its head! What gives!?
Let's talk about today first. The radar is a mess; there are three tornado warnings out from Evansville to TN. I think we'll see some warnings around here, but as of right now we're stuck with our tornado WATCH for the area. Really I think we'll just see some nasty winds, but there's no telling what this line of storms will do in the next two hours. Luckily it will pale in comparison to the horrid outbreak of tornadoes yesterday in the Midwest that's been all over the media.
The next item on the agenda is my snow ghost reference. Some people around here thing our chances for an appreciable snow are dead, hence the ghost name. I think we'll shed that between next week and the couple weeks in succession after that. I know I've said something like this before, but now ALL of the models are putting us in a downright FRIGID pattern for this time period. There are quite a few storms lined up in this pattern as well, so we'll see where they go as they come through. The one I'm looking at now is somewhere between the 13th and 15th, which the GFS is poo-pooing this model run. Some have it, some don't. Ahh... Back to the old dilemma.
Let's talk about today first. The radar is a mess; there are three tornado warnings out from Evansville to TN. I think we'll see some warnings around here, but as of right now we're stuck with our tornado WATCH for the area. Really I think we'll just see some nasty winds, but there's no telling what this line of storms will do in the next two hours. Luckily it will pale in comparison to the horrid outbreak of tornadoes yesterday in the Midwest that's been all over the media.
The next item on the agenda is my snow ghost reference. Some people around here thing our chances for an appreciable snow are dead, hence the ghost name. I think we'll shed that between next week and the couple weeks in succession after that. I know I've said something like this before, but now ALL of the models are putting us in a downright FRIGID pattern for this time period. There are quite a few storms lined up in this pattern as well, so we'll see where they go as they come through. The one I'm looking at now is somewhere between the 13th and 15th, which the GFS is poo-pooing this model run. Some have it, some don't. Ahh... Back to the old dilemma.
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