That's about what I thought. The area with the 30% outline is roughly where I saw instability the highest and the cap blowing off in the afternoon. It's pretty much the same story today, except the SREF model is now pushing CAPE values past 2000 J/KG, which means these storms will have a little more instability to work with. I just took a look at the NAM wind shear product (I didn't know one existed until today!) and it looks like we'll have a pretty decent dose of shear here as these storms are coming through. The best shear will be in place at around 5pm according to the NAM, which makes me a little concerned. 2000 J/KG CAPE + Late day shear = a mess.
Still uncertain about the actual storm structure and formation at this time, but it seems that we'll be in the zone of prime development in the mid to late afternoon. Usually we get storms that form in the Midwest and they roar through here in the early to mid evening, after they've done they're worst to our West. I'm a little more concerned this time since they will be forming here, possibly starting out as super cells before merging into a squall or MCS line of thunderstorms. If this does happen this way, then we do have a small tornado threat. I smell a MODERATE risk coming down the tubes in the next 36 hours. Guess I'm going to have to fire up the live severe streaming (don't forget, you can sign up for alert e-mails about when I'm streaming at ryanweather.org)!
I just glanced at the radar and saw a cell going up in SE Louisville where I live. Sure enough, there's a towering cloud and a rain shaft just a couple miles from my house as I went to check. We'll see more pop-up storm cells throughout the day, but the chance of any one place getting hit by one is pretty small. Tomorrow looks to be the same, with the same old hot and humid temperatures. Stay cool!
1 comment:
I would be concerned that storms pop ahead of the front in the morning (along the LLJ axis) and zap the instability for the afternoon. Tends to be pretty typical in a hot, humid and uncapped (for the most part) atmosphere. Also, not all that amped about the shear. Best mid level jet doesn't get here until Sun AM.. Bad timing. If this year has proven anything, it is that the SPC is not verifying their risks. You experienced this first hand with the high risks on your chase trip. I'm sick of the boring weather here, but I don't think it's going to change Saturday.
Post a Comment