I see 2 storms in the cards...

The time has come when we say farewell to this odd El Nino sort of warm weather and let the cold stormy weather walk down the aisle. There are two storms I'm eying in particular that support my thesis here:

1. The first one will start on the morning of the 22nd as some drizzle. As we move into the afternoon the drizzle may start to turn into light rain. My guess is that by 7pm or so, there will be moderate snow falling because the temps are going to take a pretty good plunge. This isn't a backside of a front flurry business. I think we're talking more about a light rain to snow with the EMPHASIS being on the snow as the moisture really picks up after the temps plunge as the front goes through. Totals you say? Hmm... Hard, very hard to discern at this point... I'll take a swing and say 2 to 4 inches. But you say "Nobody else's forecasts have that!" Well this is because the GFS model just started settling on this today, and nobody's going to get on the snowboat until Thursday I think.
2. If storm 1 turns out to be a fizzle, here's storm 2, on the night of the 28th. This one's gonna be big folks. I've seen moisture indications agreeing around .4 to .5 inches of precipitation. Do a quick snow conversion (I'm gonna say 15:1 due to temps being in the 20's) and we could easily pick up anywhere from 5-8 inches of snow, a substatial snowstorm by Kentucky standards. You say that this is 2 weeks out and its rubbish... I do agree a little bit with you because it could disappear from the maps tomorrow. BUT, we've got cold air REALLY digging in and an ACTIVE lower jet stream, which equals a moderate Ohio Valley storm and a HUGE storm for NY, Philly, and Boston. And another thing is that a storm on the 28th has been on the models, with great intensity, since 3 days ago. I know the GFS is flaky, but for a storm to remain and be consistent on the GFS for nearly half a week should set off alarm bells.

So to sum this all up, we will eventually get snow, and hopefully lots of it. I see February as being a very active and snowy month due to some really cold air masses setting up shop in the lower Midwest. Everyone just needs to be patient, there is still 2 good months of solid winter to go. Don't be surprised if I change my whole thesis on this tomorrow, but so far things are remaining consistent. John Belski's 14-day forecast had highs in the TEENS by the 24th, so bundle up!