Light snow will start falling this afternoon, but no more than a dusting should accumulate in Louisville. Temperatures in the 30's will stick around until early next week with warmer weather setting in after that.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
2/27 - 4pm - On the Edge for Snow
What a storm last night! Winds gusted to 44mph at 3:54am this morning at my house with winds around 60 in other parts of the Metro. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued and bleachers were overturned at Ballard High School according to a storm report filed with the Storm Prediction Center.
The latest runs of both the GFS and NAM have snow just to our south for tomorrow and late tomorrow night. The heaviest moisture is so very close, but a tight gradient exists as you go north:
(click image to see larger view)
This morning, the HPC had a SLIGHT risk of 4+ inches of snow in Central Kentucky and points east, but the newest outlook pulls the risk area further south into Tennessee and far South Kentucky. At this point I don't think anything is written in stone because of the amount of irregularity in the models. Even though the general track of the storm has been pretty consistent, a 25-50 mile shift north in the storm track will bring us more than just the snow showers the models are forecasting at the moment. This kind of shift is not rare 24-36 hours out, so I would not discount the fact that we could have an accumulating snow late Saturday.
We should top out at around 32 tomorrow for a high, with upper 30's for Sunday and Monday. 40's are back for Tuesday, with 50's for the remainder of the week.
The latest runs of both the GFS and NAM have snow just to our south for tomorrow and late tomorrow night. The heaviest moisture is so very close, but a tight gradient exists as you go north:
(click image to see larger view)
This morning, the HPC had a SLIGHT risk of 4+ inches of snow in Central Kentucky and points east, but the newest outlook pulls the risk area further south into Tennessee and far South Kentucky. At this point I don't think anything is written in stone because of the amount of irregularity in the models. Even though the general track of the storm has been pretty consistent, a 25-50 mile shift north in the storm track will bring us more than just the snow showers the models are forecasting at the moment. This kind of shift is not rare 24-36 hours out, so I would not discount the fact that we could have an accumulating snow late Saturday.
We should top out at around 32 tomorrow for a high, with upper 30's for Sunday and Monday. 40's are back for Tuesday, with 50's for the remainder of the week.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
2/26 - 5:45pm - Storms, Snow (But Not at the Same Time!)
I'm in awe of my current thermometer reading at home: 64 degrees. As this southeast ridge amplifies a bit this evening, we might actually add another degree or two to that temperature for our high. Rain should begin here after midnight and the heavier rain with lightning should be here somewhere between 3-5am. Since this is happening in the early morning hours, severe weather is not expected. There is a chance for some gusty winds and small hail, but both should stay under severe limits.
As this cold front passes early tomorrow morning, cooler air will filter in behind it. Temperatures will start out in the 50's tomorrow, but will fall well into the 40's during the afternoon hours. This colder air coupled with a low passing to our southeast will fuel a snow chance here for Saturday. The 18z GFS runs has lowered snow amounts for the area compared to the 12z, and both runs have the bulk of the snow going just south of Louisville. No two models are in agreement with this system, so we could end up with nothing or a 1-3" snow accumulation if this moisture can move a hair northward in later model runs. More on this tomorrow!
As this cold front passes early tomorrow morning, cooler air will filter in behind it. Temperatures will start out in the 50's tomorrow, but will fall well into the 40's during the afternoon hours. This colder air coupled with a low passing to our southeast will fuel a snow chance here for Saturday. The 18z GFS runs has lowered snow amounts for the area compared to the 12z, and both runs have the bulk of the snow going just south of Louisville. No two models are in agreement with this system, so we could end up with nothing or a 1-3" snow accumulation if this moisture can move a hair northward in later model runs. More on this tomorrow!
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
2/25 - 5pm - A Warm, Wet Thursday
Today was a super day temperature-wise! Tomorrow looks even better, with highs reaching into the mid 60's. A few rain showers will develop early tomorrow, but things should clear out for the afternoon. Heavy rain and even thunderstorms will be an issue on Friday morning, with a SLIGHT Risk of severe weather just west of us:
These storms will be weakening as they come through during the early morning hours on Friday, so it's unlikely that we'll see any severe weather problems. A few snow showers are possible on Saturday evening as a low passes to our southeast, but little or no accumulation will occur. Highs in the 40's return for the weekend and the beginning of next week.
These storms will be weakening as they come through during the early morning hours on Friday, so it's unlikely that we'll see any severe weather problems. A few snow showers are possible on Saturday evening as a low passes to our southeast, but little or no accumulation will occur. Highs in the 40's return for the weekend and the beginning of next week.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
2/24 - 3:45pm - A Short Warm-Up
If you're sick of 40-degree weather, I have good news for you! Temperatures will bump up into the 50's tomorrow, with 60's expected for Thursday. A cold front passing through early Friday morning will dampen things back into the 40's, but a couple days in the 50's and 60's isn't a bad break in the middle of February.
Rain chances will pick up tomorrow evening as an area of low pressure tracks up to the Great Lakes from the Plains. Storms will become likely late on Thursday with the approaching cold front to the south of the low. It looks like the storms will be strong, but it's still too early to tell if they will be severe. I think there is potential for some isolated severe weather, but an outbreak looks very unlikely because there is not much instability to work with.
The 12z GFS takes the low coming through the region on Saturday well to our south, suppressing most of the moisture down that way as well. After seeing some of the solutions yesterday, I'm not sold on that southern suppression and I think the low will track back north in successive model runs. This kind of setup has been happening all winter in the GFS, where a low is suddenly supressed southward for a few model runs and then quickly corrects northward in just one or two runs. The main thing is that we could see some precipitation on Saturday, but the track of this low and how much cold air comes south from the Great Lakes will determine whether it is rain or snow.
Rain chances will pick up tomorrow evening as an area of low pressure tracks up to the Great Lakes from the Plains. Storms will become likely late on Thursday with the approaching cold front to the south of the low. It looks like the storms will be strong, but it's still too early to tell if they will be severe. I think there is potential for some isolated severe weather, but an outbreak looks very unlikely because there is not much instability to work with.
The 12z GFS takes the low coming through the region on Saturday well to our south, suppressing most of the moisture down that way as well. After seeing some of the solutions yesterday, I'm not sold on that southern suppression and I think the low will track back north in successive model runs. This kind of setup has been happening all winter in the GFS, where a low is suddenly supressed southward for a few model runs and then quickly corrects northward in just one or two runs. The main thing is that we could see some precipitation on Saturday, but the track of this low and how much cold air comes south from the Great Lakes will determine whether it is rain or snow.
Monday, February 23, 2009
2/23 - 4pm - Quiet Start to the Week
If you're not a fan of the cold temperatures around the area, no worries. Warmer air will filter in here for the rest of the week, giving us highs in the 40's tomorrow, 50's on Wednesday, and even lower 60's on Thursday! The price to pay for all of this will be in the form of a storm system coming through on Thursday, which will bump up chances for thunderstorms during the day.
The weekend is uncertain at the moment. The GFS is being inconsistent with an area of low pressure coming through the region on Saturday. Its track will determine whether we see warmer temperatures and dry weather, cooler temperatures and rain, or even cold air with snow. If the low keeps the track on the 12z GFS and intensifies a bit more, we may have a bit of snow to deal with. It's too early to tell right now, so I'll have more information as the week progresses.
The weekend is uncertain at the moment. The GFS is being inconsistent with an area of low pressure coming through the region on Saturday. Its track will determine whether we see warmer temperatures and dry weather, cooler temperatures and rain, or even cold air with snow. If the low keeps the track on the 12z GFS and intensifies a bit more, we may have a bit of snow to deal with. It's too early to tell right now, so I'll have more information as the week progresses.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
2/21 - 3:15pm - New Forecast Video
Most areas will see around 1" of snow this afternoon, but isolated spots of 2" are possible. The rain is getting ready to change to snow as we speak, and the snow should last for 3 or 4 hours at the most. Things will turn cold for the rest of the weekend and early next week behind this cold front, but warmer temperatures are on tap for the middle of next week. Rain will be back in the area by late Wednesday.
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