11/30 - A Mix of Rain and Snow

With temperatures reaching into the mid 40s today, I'm not real optimistic about snow accumulation tonight as rain changes over to all snow. We might not even get below freezing tonight, so I doubt we'll see any accumulation of snow or ice on the roads. Bear in mind that bridges and overpasses could still have some slick spots tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon as temperatures drop.

Overall, expect from a dusting to an inch of snow on the grass by tomorrow and a few possible travel issues for the morning and afternoon commutes. After a high near 40 on Tuesday, temperatures will rise to about 50 degrees on Wednesday. Unfortunately, a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives by Thursday. That will send highs into the upper 30's for the rest of the week, not to mention a few snow showers that could accompany it.

11/25 - 10:15pm - Not Much Snow

I'm sorry to say that my previous estimate of 2 inches of snow for Monday is a stretch at this point. The models have shifted north and west with the low pressure track over the last 24 hours, and thus our snow chances have dwindled. I'd say we're lucky if we get an inch on the grass by Monday evening due to higher than expected temperatures. We should see mostly rain on Sunday, which will change to snow by the evening. I think we could have some minor issues with the Monday morning commute, especially on highways and overpasses.

Snow lovers... do not lose hope! It is still very early in the season and we have many more snow chances to come! Speaking of which, we could see something Thursday into Friday. I'm not real sure right now because of the track of the storm on the current model runs, but we'll see. I'll talk about that later if it stays on the models.

11/28 - 1:45pm - Still Looking at Some Snow!

The latest models aren't as optimistic as they were on Wednesday evening when I last posted, but we haven't lost our snow completely. The GFS trended east with the storm yesterday, but the track has trended a bit westward in the latest runs. The NAM is in fair agreement with the GFS on this, so I think we could squeeze out a couple inches of snow. We could see some rain during the day on Sunday due to warmer temperatures, which would bring down snow totals. Even if that were to happen, it would still snow on Sunday night and Monday. In any case, I'm going to go with my prediction of around or above 2" of snow by Monday.

This storm is still evolving and there are still issues to be dealt with before it gets here. One issue is that a low from the Southwestern US and a low Canada could phase together in a variety of ways. Until this phasing occurs, no model or human being can really give a straight answer as to what this storm will do. So we'll just have to keep our eye on the models and see if there are any major shifts in the next day or so. I will say that a shift like this in the models is not unlikely given that we still have 48 hours before the system comes through.

I hope that everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving!

11/26 - 7pm - Now We're on to Something!

I wrote yesterday that the models were not in good agreement with each other for a potential system late weekend into early next week. The GFS had a strange looking trough and the DGEX didn't know what to do. Fast forward 27 hours and look what happened:



Yikes! The GFS and DGEX both agree on a snowstorm solution for Monday, with Louisville, Evansville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis right in the crosshairs. The NAM doesn't go out far enough in time to see the storm, but the right components are on the model for development 84 hours from now. I don't even want to talk about accumulations yet... the models have varied wildly over the last 24 hours. What I will say is that I've seen a general increase in moisture in the models since yesterday, so keep your fingers crossed!

Obviously I want to express a word of caution before you grab your snow cream recipes and snow shovels. This storm is still 5 days out and much can change in that time period. If the low pressure associated with this system decides to go east of the Appalachians, that could mean less snow. If the low goes any further west of where its forecast to go now, we could see rain and mixed precipitation. BUT... the fact that model agreement is fairly decent at the moment makes me more optimistic that we could be dealing with a snowstorm here Sunday night into Monday.

I'll be out of town for the Thanksgiving weekend (whew... not going to miss the potential storm), but I'll have internet access while I'm gone. If anything happens with the models, I'll be sure to post. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

11/25 - 4:45 pm - Not Sure What to Make of This Pattern

The GFS has been an utter mess over the last couple days. Its been bringing in storms, loosing them, and disagreeing with itself and other models. I must say I'm not the only one being driven crazy by this! The 12z run has nothing but cold air and mostly dry conditions. The DGEX is fairing the same way at the moment as well. With both of these, the trough that will form across much of the US this weekend and into early next week is situated oddly, making me suspicious that the model is not handling the setup well. We'll have to see what comes our way early next week if anything at all. There's moisture and cold air, but the moisture is south of here and the cold air is over us. There's a possibility we could see a surprising shift in the models as we get closer to time.

The possible snow on Friday has pretty much evaporated from the models, but a slight chance for a small shower is still in the works. Thanksgiving still looks warm, with a high near 52!

11/24 - 4pm - Something Could Be Lurking in the Models

My rain gauge reads .66" of rain since midnight, which seems reasonable given how heavy the rain was early this morning. The good news is that it's out of here, but unfortunately temperatures will stay in the 40's for the remainder of the week. Tomorrow will be the coldest day, with a high that will struggle to reach 40. A high of 50 is not out of the question for Thanksgiving, but it's difficult to tell what might happen this weekend temperature-wise.

What I mean is that some of the models are showing a snowstorm for this Friday and into the weekend. The GFS is really not picking up on this and suppressing the associated low to the south. It also shows warmer air in here that the other models do not favor. The Canadian in particular has the low tracking south of us and then cutting up through Eastern Kentucky, which would be a classic snow solution for us. The DGEX is a little more aggressive with the cold air and precipitation than the GFS, but still nowhere near models like the Canadian.

At this point we just need to sit back and wait. I'd say the chances of a storm actually playing out this weekend are fairly small, but a little snow on the backside of a rain system would make more sense to me. The Louisville NWS isn't jumping on any bandwagon and calling for mostly rain with a possible period of snow or mix if the models trend colder. I think that's a pretty sound forecast given the great uncertainty, so I'll go with that for now.

11/22 - 6pm - New Forecast Video

A few more chilly days before we warm up slightly for Thanksgiving.



I'm introducing Ryan Weather DOPPLER Plus today, which is a high-resolution radar feed for the website. It's powered by StormLab and can be accessed on the Ryan Weather homepage.