Tropical Storm Noel is getting ready to graze the Southern Florida Coast, which shouldn't be any more than a nuisance. Our weather is getting ready to turn colder here after this week. The GFS has been wild and woolly these past couple days with snowstorms and freezes abound. In reality I think we'll just see some flurries at night by the 10th of November, but there is still the possibility for more.
Other than that, we'll stay quiet around here with around 70 tomorrow and lower 60's for the remainder of the week.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Sunday, October 28, 2007
10/28 - 8:30pm - 200th Post!!!
Woo hoo, this is my 200th blog post! It seems like yesterday when I made my first blog entry, in January of this year. Maybe I should put all my blog entries into a book (There's a lot of text I've put out)...
It's going to get cold tonight, like really cold. I think that the outer suburbs will hit the upper 20's with 30's in the city. Of course we're under a frost advisory, which means to bring in your plants so they won't die. We'll see mid to lower 60's this week with lows in the 30's and 40's, with no precipitation in sight.
I was looking at the GFS model today and noticed that it's trying to tell us something. I think we're going to see the cold snap to end all cold snaps during the second week of November. Yes, there is snow associated with this, but the GFS is shaky on where. The main point is that we're going to have some sort of cold November system come in, with or without frozen precipitation.
It's going to get cold tonight, like really cold. I think that the outer suburbs will hit the upper 20's with 30's in the city. Of course we're under a frost advisory, which means to bring in your plants so they won't die. We'll see mid to lower 60's this week with lows in the 30's and 40's, with no precipitation in sight.
I was looking at the GFS model today and noticed that it's trying to tell us something. I think we're going to see the cold snap to end all cold snaps during the second week of November. Yes, there is snow associated with this, but the GFS is shaky on where. The main point is that we're going to have some sort of cold November system come in, with or without frozen precipitation.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Thursday, October 25, 2007
10/25 - 8pm - Finished With Rain, Cool Temps Ahead
Our grand total for shortage of rain after our huge rain event over the last couple days is 1.94 inches below average. We were pushing 6 inches just before it. Its good we were able to just about flush our drought out of here before cooler temperatures come in. We'll only see a couple chances for some light showers before we head into a cooler, calmer weekend.
In the longer range, the GFS has us in line for some much cooler temperatures come a couple weeks from now. I think we'll be in the 40's a couple days with the balance of the week in the 50's. We're still iffy on some flurries some time during that period at night...
In the longer range, the GFS has us in line for some much cooler temperatures come a couple weeks from now. I think we'll be in the 40's a couple days with the balance of the week in the 50's. We're still iffy on some flurries some time during that period at night...
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
10/23 -7:15pm - Wild Weather
The California wildfires are getting way out of hand. Over 1 million people have been evacuated, with more to evacuations to come. The Santa Ana winds (caused by high pressure in the Rockies shooting high velocity wind southward) that are fueling the fires are starting to die down, but there is no moisture in sight. Let's hope that these fires get under control soon.
Second item on the agenda is our rain situation, or the abundance thereof. My home rain gauge reads 3.23" for just today with a storm total (from yesterday and today) of over 3.7". This is about what the HPC said we'd have in last weekend's QPF before the amount was lessened in later outlooks. This is quite remarkable, I've never seen more than a couple inches in one day before. We're not out of the woods yet though, as we will have more rain tomorrow making our whole grand total of rain probably around 4 inches (possibly 4.5" if stronger rain bands develop). That's what I call a drought buster!
Finally, I need to address yesterday's snow discussion. The GFS has changed a little since yesterday, but It only pulled the low north about 150 miles. This means we could still see an evening snow on Nov 1-3 somewhere (as the GFS fumbles with timing). This is NOT a snowstorm. This would only mean a dusting to an inch MAXIMUM (at this time). So really this would just put everyone in the winter mood early this year.
Take a look at the just released AccuWeather Winter Forecast. The high probability of above normal moisture seems to be on every winter forecast I've seen so far (NWS, AccuWeather, Old Farmer's Almanac, and Farmer' Almanac). This doesn't necessarily mean this above normal precipitation will all fall as snow, but it would definitely mean an increase in the white stuff compared to normal. We will be anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal for this winter, but don't let that quash any hope of snow, because that's just an average. Simply put, instead of a day being 25 degrees, it'll just be 27 degrees if you just apply the average to a one day scenario.
Second item on the agenda is our rain situation, or the abundance thereof. My home rain gauge reads 3.23" for just today with a storm total (from yesterday and today) of over 3.7". This is about what the HPC said we'd have in last weekend's QPF before the amount was lessened in later outlooks. This is quite remarkable, I've never seen more than a couple inches in one day before. We're not out of the woods yet though, as we will have more rain tomorrow making our whole grand total of rain probably around 4 inches (possibly 4.5" if stronger rain bands develop). That's what I call a drought buster!
Finally, I need to address yesterday's snow discussion. The GFS has changed a little since yesterday, but It only pulled the low north about 150 miles. This means we could still see an evening snow on Nov 1-3 somewhere (as the GFS fumbles with timing). This is NOT a snowstorm. This would only mean a dusting to an inch MAXIMUM (at this time). So really this would just put everyone in the winter mood early this year.
Take a look at the just released AccuWeather Winter Forecast. The high probability of above normal moisture seems to be on every winter forecast I've seen so far (NWS, AccuWeather, Old Farmer's Almanac, and Farmer' Almanac). This doesn't necessarily mean this above normal precipitation will all fall as snow, but it would definitely mean an increase in the white stuff compared to normal. We will be anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal for this winter, but don't let that quash any hope of snow, because that's just an average. Simply put, instead of a day being 25 degrees, it'll just be 27 degrees if you just apply the average to a one day scenario.
Monday, October 22, 2007
10/22 - 9pm - Snow on the GFS!!!
Alright, I went to school this morning and took a look at the GFS for grins:
Was I dreaming? Disregarding the model, I came home this evening and looked at some later runs:
Yeah, that's snow on November 3rd. I still can't believe it. The GFS has had its weirdness over the past couple weeks predicting some "far out flurries" in October, but I think this one might be valid given the general consistency of the model (they all call for some sort of snow, although amounts vary greatly). Then I took a look at the NAO (a measurement of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which determines if cold storms can pass through the East US based on pressure levels in air over the Atlantic). The NAO could go negative at the beginning of November, which opens up the flap for any winter-like storms to come through our neck of the woods:
So we just need to sit tight. There is another system Nov 6th-7th that is similar, but that's way too far out to conjecture. We're still about 12 days out on this Nov 3rd system, whether it be rain or snow. I think I'll have a decent guess by this weekend, but this still could be a model game right now by the GFS taking the low too far south. In the meantime, enjoy the rain because we will get a couple inches by tomorrow, with temps dipping into the 60's!
Was I dreaming? Disregarding the model, I came home this evening and looked at some later runs:
Yeah, that's snow on November 3rd. I still can't believe it. The GFS has had its weirdness over the past couple weeks predicting some "far out flurries" in October, but I think this one might be valid given the general consistency of the model (they all call for some sort of snow, although amounts vary greatly). Then I took a look at the NAO (a measurement of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which determines if cold storms can pass through the East US based on pressure levels in air over the Atlantic). The NAO could go negative at the beginning of November, which opens up the flap for any winter-like storms to come through our neck of the woods:
So we just need to sit tight. There is another system Nov 6th-7th that is similar, but that's way too far out to conjecture. We're still about 12 days out on this Nov 3rd system, whether it be rain or snow. I think I'll have a decent guess by this weekend, but this still could be a model game right now by the GFS taking the low too far south. In the meantime, enjoy the rain because we will get a couple inches by tomorrow, with temps dipping into the 60's!
Saturday, October 20, 2007
10/20 - 1:20pm - Forecast Video
A calmer, yet rainier period after all the severe weather earlier in the week...
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