5/31 - 11:30am - Rain is on Its Way!

First off, take a look at this HPC forecast for Saturday into Sunday:


That looks as good as the finest art piece at the Louvre Museum in Paris. This means that we will finally get some much needed rain around the area. I must say that now the HPC is on board with this weekend rain event, I feel more confident about it. The GFS is in good agreement with this outlook:


The NAM model is in fairly good agreement with the GFS. It shows the general shape of the storm to be a little different, but nevertheless it gives us about the same amount of rain. Imagine that, the GFS and NAM actually agreeing! If only we could get that kind of agreement during snow season...

So Saturday into Sunday look like our rain days from these models. Sure, there are chances for isolated rain showers/T-storms from tomorrow to Monday, but Sunday and Monday are the highest chances. I did see one model this morning that did not favor this scenario for rain though. The 12z Canadian model (eh?) seemed to drive this system a little south and lessen the rain amounts significantly. I'm not too worried though because I think that the HPC, NAM model, and GFS model are on common ground with this system. Those three factors outweigh the Canadian solution.

The NWS Louisville office is keeping our rain chances at 40 percent from Sunday to Monday night. I think this is a safe bet because there is still a chance that this could fizzle. I'm going to place my cards on a 60 percent chance though because I think that we have a better shot at rain than no rain. I'm sure that once we get closer to this event, the chances will go up at the NWS. That's if the models are consistent though. Remember, the NAM and GFS can wipe this whole rain event out in just one run of the model. But I think there's enough proof for this system to play out weekend.

5/30 - 8:15pm - Can We Get Some Rain Please?

The answer is...YES!!! After a terrible dry spell over the last couple of weeks, I think the light at the end of the tunnel is coming. This ridge we have over us has been eating storms for breakfast over the last few days. According to the GFS, a trough coming this way has enough power to displace this ridge this weekend.

Sunday and Monday look like our potential days for rain. This recent run of the GFS for Sunday night is a sight for sore eyes:



There is still a chance that this system may not be strong enough to get us rain, but I think it will. The NAM (even though it doesn't go far enough out yet) shows this system approaching on Sunday night. It shows it weakening, but it indicates that there will still be moisture left when it gets close.

So hopefully this trough will have the advertised power to overcome our dry, polluted, and hot ridge we have in place. Until this weekend, expect highs to be just below 90. After this system goes through, we should get some relief temperature wise. At least for a little while...

5/28 - 8:30pm - Hot, Muggy, and Dry

It rained north of I-64 yesterday evening, which I'm sure was welcomed by those living there. Since it was only a tenth of an inch or so, it all evaporated today. So don't feel bad if you didn't get rain (I didn't) because everyone is back at the same point.

I was out at the hardware store today and the plants there are starting to dry up. It seems as if they just can't hose them down fast enough to keep them hydrated! Now, granted that we have a little more humidity than we did last week, it is still very dry.

I said in my video forecast that Thursday was our best chance for rain. Well, now its been pushed back to late Saturday. It seems as if this ridge is just eating up all the moisture that wants to come in here. There is a light at the end of this tunnel though...

The GFS has a complete pattern change coming after this coming up weekend. It shows us getting slapped with storm after storm next week. I'm thinking that if this comes true, we should recover from our rain deficit...

On another note... There is a blue moon coming up! This just simply means that there are two full moons in a month. So on May 31st, nothing about the moon should look different. Of course dust storms and volcanic events can make the moon different, but we shouldn't have that.

5/26 - 2:30pm - New Forecast Video

Here's a new forecast video!

5/24 - 8:30pm - Some Clouds and Air Pollution

This weather lately is just getting worse and worse. First we start off with a nice dry and warm ridge sitting over the eastern half of the country. Then you add in some humidity and stagnant air. That's when things become nasty.

Our air pollution levels have been terrible the past couple of days because of this stagnant air. And now we're adding in humidity? What a mess.

Our more dire issue is the lack of rain, which isn't getting any better. The GFS has little chance for any scattered storms over the next few days. The only way I see any relief could be on Memorial Day, when a system could get us some rain. This is counting on the fact that a previous system weakens this ridge enough to get this next system in here.

I don't think we'll see much change in temperature in the next few days either, so mid to upper 80's will stick around for a while longer.

5/22 - 12pm - Where's the Rain?

Continuing my discussion from yesterday, I still think we're headed into a dry or possibly drought pattern. I've been looking at the GFS and it still shows a pesky ridge hanging around here for at least the next week or so. The boundary of this ridge seems to be hanging around the Evansville, IN area. From this point west, there is a plentiful amount of rain in the forecast. But due to the high pressure, this is where the rain stops. The ridge is acting like a deflector for the rain, and that's bad news for us.

This is not to say that we won't have a drop of rain for the next few days. There are still chances for scattered and isolated thunderstorms around the area for this week, maybe even some severe ones. Our problem is that as we dry out, these chances will become less and less as we get less moisture in the air to work with. So hopefully these scattered storms will be plentiful enough to hold us over until this ridge breaks.

Speaking of which, the SPC has us on the verge of a chance for severe weather around the 27th. I hope this area is expanded south so that we can have a chance for a soaking rain in some areas around here.

This week is going to be hot, but it won't feel like it. Our humidity levels will stay low this week because of this dry spell. Just remember that you can easily get dehydrated in this hot and dry weather. Drink lots of fluids!

5/21 - 5:45pm - Dustbowl Era?

Hmm... I've seen this pointed out by some other meteorologists in town and I am beginning to believe it. We haven't had much rain in the past few weeks. As of yesterday I thought this was a dry transition between a big ridge and some more unstable systems to follow.

This theory is true for locations north and west of us. But for us, we could be in trouble. I've been looking over the GFS with some utter amazement. We don't have a chance for any notable precipitation for the next couple weeks according to the current run of the GFS. Sure, we'll have scattered storms and little isolated systems, but not enough for the normal amount we usually get.

I don't know, maybe the GFS is just horsing around like it does sometimes (most times). If its true though, we could well have a drought on our hands in a few weeks. I'll give it a few days and then I'll report back on the issue. As for now, it's just plain hot! 82 degrees feels really good after a few days in the 60's though.