8/16 - 7pm - .45" of Rain

Yes! We got .45" of rain at my house. Once the grass was wet you could clearly see how brown it had become over the last couple weeks. Again I apologize for not covering this line of storms. I simply couldn't keep the power from going on and off in my house for more than 5 minutes! So luckily not too much damage, but there were reports of trees and power lines down in several surrounding counties. But how about a temperature change too? From 105 to the upper 60's in Louisville over the course of just a few minutes. Quite a reprieve!

Now on to Hurricane Dean, which is now an actual full-blown hurricane. Here's the current track:


Here are my issues right now with it,

1. The forecast track currently takes the hurricane into the Southern Gulf. This is not good. If the hurricane tracks just even slightly north of the Yucatan, which would differ from the current track forecast, we could have a huge problem. The hurricane could then turn due North and take aim at the Gulf Coast. If it tracks more southerly into the Yucatan, Southern Texas or Mexico would be affected. The affect to these areas would be less though because the Yucatan Peninsula would deflate the storm due to the passage over land. Although the Yucatan Peninsula would bear the brunt of a nasty cat 4 hurricane.
   
2. My second problem is with the models. The GFS is now somewhat stable on an all Mexico landfall solution, and the NAM is hinting it wants to stay with the GFS on that. The Canadian model also agrees. But the GFDL, a more hurricane centric model, says it's going to hit the Gulf Coast and go North of the Yucatan. The National Hurricane Center seems to be going with a mixture of both, but keeping more with the GFDL in terms of long-range placement.

So really its anyone's guess where landfall will be. Most forecasters I've seen are saying its still too difficult to make heads and tails of models. It seems they are more consistent, but consistently changing their minds together. Does that make sense?