8/16 - 7pm - .45" of Rain

Yes! We got .45" of rain at my house. Once the grass was wet you could clearly see how brown it had become over the last couple weeks. Again I apologize for not covering this line of storms. I simply couldn't keep the power from going on and off in my house for more than 5 minutes! So luckily not too much damage, but there were reports of trees and power lines down in several surrounding counties. But how about a temperature change too? From 105 to the upper 60's in Louisville over the course of just a few minutes. Quite a reprieve!

Now on to Hurricane Dean, which is now an actual full-blown hurricane. Here's the current track:


Here are my issues right now with it,

1. The forecast track currently takes the hurricane into the Southern Gulf. This is not good. If the hurricane tracks just even slightly north of the Yucatan, which would differ from the current track forecast, we could have a huge problem. The hurricane could then turn due North and take aim at the Gulf Coast. If it tracks more southerly into the Yucatan, Southern Texas or Mexico would be affected. The affect to these areas would be less though because the Yucatan Peninsula would deflate the storm due to the passage over land. Although the Yucatan Peninsula would bear the brunt of a nasty cat 4 hurricane.
   
2. My second problem is with the models. The GFS is now somewhat stable on an all Mexico landfall solution, and the NAM is hinting it wants to stay with the GFS on that. The Canadian model also agrees. But the GFDL, a more hurricane centric model, says it's going to hit the Gulf Coast and go North of the Yucatan. The National Hurricane Center seems to be going with a mixture of both, but keeping more with the GFDL in terms of long-range placement.

So really its anyone's guess where landfall will be. Most forecasters I've seen are saying its still too difficult to make heads and tails of models. It seems they are more consistent, but consistently changing their minds together. Does that make sense?

8/16 - 4:40pm - SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

Sorry I'm not doing any video coverage of these storms, I just got home from school and these storms just popped up. We are under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning right now. Clark County is experiencing up to golf ball size hail with heavy rain. The main line of storms won't be here for an hour or two. Since these little cells are exiting the county now, I'll wait to start broadcasting on my severe weather coverage channel until the main line comes through, but only if it's severe.

8/15 - 8pm - Hurricane Dean.... Coming Soon.

Whoa! TS Dean really cranked up today. The NHC said this thing already has a partial eye wall. According to the NHC and Accuweather, this storm will be a category 1 hurricane tomorrow. That's right, not day 5 as I said yesterday, but tomorrow. As far as the track goes, it seems to be taking a more southward path just south of Cuba, but its not for sure. I'm still hearing the Gulf Coast landfall solution reverberating through the meteorology world. I still think this storm could clip Florida and bang up the Gulf Coast.

And how about Tropical Storm Erin? That storm strengthened pretty quick too, just right off the coast of Texas. This one could be the big surprise of the season. I've seen some suggest that there is a possibility that it could become a category 1 hurricane before it landfalls in Texas. While that is a possibility, I think that it won't be too bad. This area doesn't need the rain though, and this storm could bring a lot of it.

Locally, it was hot today! We broke a record with a high of 103 degrees today. That breaks our 102 record we set last week! I think we'll see one more day in the 100's before cooling off into the 80's for the weekend. We're under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather tomorrow. Maybe we'll get lucky with some rain!

8/12 - 8:20pm - TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORMS

Well it happened. Just like Accuweather, the NHC, and everyone else on the planet said would happen, TD 4 is now Tropical Storm Dean. Here's the interesting part:

The NHC says this thing will be a hurricane in 5 days.

Now there are two tracks that everyone seems to be advertising for this thing: a spinout into the Atlantic or a Gulf Coast hurricane. The NHC and myself are both sticking with the GFS solution: the Gulf Coast. Why? Well a large ridge is going to slide off the east coast, north of this thing, and prohibit any northward movement in the open Atlantic. But once the ridge slides out to sea, the hurricane will be in the Gulf. Because this ridge is sliding off, the hurricane shoot north and hit the coast. Who's coast you ask? I don't know yet. Pretty much anywhere from Texas to Florida and a chance for even the Carolinas too.

All I have to say is that based on the historical tracks of storms in this region that various agencies have put out, it looks like the Gulf Coast or no coast at all. Since this ridge is in place, one would believe the former will occur. Just sit tight though because this may be an emotional wild ride as this track is decided. I have to make this disclaimer right now: New Orleans has a chance of getting this one. The latest GFS model had the worst possible situation for New Orleans, but I don't think its necessary to show that when the GFS is all over the place with this thing. Everyone needs to be alert with this storm because I think it may be THE storm if the right elements come together this week.

8/12 - 10am - Keep an "eye" out

Accuweather.com issued this tropical wave graphic this morning:

Notice the "STRONG" annotation on the far easterly wave. Thats our sucker. This thing could be a tropical depression by day's end. The National Hurricane Center is calling this a "Vigorous" tropical wave, something we've not seen yet this season. The current GFS track takes it through the Yucatan into the Mexican heartland, but don't trust any model at this point. The GFS has been different on the landfall location every single time it was run. Henry Margusity at Accuweather.com thinks this is a Florida storm or a Florida storm that goes back into the gulf and hits the gulf coast. Of course that is just a far-out prediction that will probably be tweaked over the next week. Don't panic, I'm not calling for Hurricane Katrina II as of now. Everyone just needs to keep an eye on the tropics because I think we'll have a hurricane this time next week, regardless of its location. By tonight, we could be calling this thing Tropical Depression Dean.

8/11 - 3pm - New Forecast Video

The possible hurricane I discuss in the video is slated to make landfall around the Augsust 21-23, depending on the run of the GFS. The new 12z run (not in video) has this thing making landfall in Miami. Don't take the model's placement of the storm seriously. Take the fact that there could be a hurricane making landfall in the US in a few days seriously though.

8/11 - 9:20am - GFS is Hunting Hurricanes

So for the last few days its been relatively quiet in the tropics. A tropical wave here and a cluster of disorganized storms there. That's all.

From the look of the current conditions it seems that it could stay tranquil there for a while. The GFS begs to differ. For many model runs now, the GFS has consistently shown a hurricane hitting the US around the 20-25th of August. Now I'm not trying to stir up any fear or frenzy, but it needs to be made known that a chance of a hurricane does loom. I'll give a full discussion in my forecast video this afternoon...