12/18 - 9pm - Back to Square One...

Well there aren't any storms coming up in the short range. That means we're in a boring weather pattern until at least the weekend, when we'll see some rain and maybe a back-end snow shower or two (just before Christmas Eve!). Speaking of Christmas, I keep getting asked whether or not it will snow or not on Christmas Day. Here's the short answer: NO. Here's the long one, it will snow (flurries) early on Christmas Eve and possibly a little more than that the day after Christmas.

There are a couple systems showing up just before New Year's on the GFS that looks similar to our last rain gusher (that could've been snow). I don't even want to think about these yet until after Santa has gone back to the North Pole. So just sit tight snow lovers.

12/16 - 11:30am - Oops...

Yeah... hmmm... That snow didn't really come did it? There was enough moisture on the radar last night for 1-2" of snow, but it just faded away before it got here. Now we're left with high wind and cold temperatures. Oh well, maybe we'll get lucky next time. Sorry about that one folks.

12/15 - 4pm - New Forecast Video

We're still on for some 2" or so snow accumulations tonight!

12/15 - 9am - Quick Snow Update

We had quite a round of freezing rain last night, but we're still on track for just plain rain this afternoon. The current snow forecast hasn't changed much, as we're still on track for 1-3 inches by tomorrow afternoon. The forecast video will be late due to a busy schedule this morning/afternoon.

12/14 - 11pm - Winter Weather Update Video

Here I explain all the elements of tomorrow's storm.

12/13 - 7:30pm - Sorry Snow Lovers...

Yeah, we're singing that sad song again folks. The snow looks as if its going north this time around. We'll still get some accumulation, but the rain will hold that under 2 inches (maybe just an inch). Our best chance for that accumulation is Saturday night with some snow on the backside of this low system. It really looked as if we had quite a storm on our hands, but its becoming increasingly clear that it will not be.

Something I did want to point out is that the NAM (18z) is giving us a pretty good dose of these backlash snows, but so far it looks like just one model run is going with these amounts. I also wanted to point out that we're still well over 24 hours away from the first flakes, so there could be some changes. At this time, I'm going to stick with 1-2 inches for the Louisville area. There is a distinct possibility for no accumulation as well. Something we will see is some sleet, due to the clash of warm and cold air just over us. Still some uncertainty on that end though.

Snow lovers: there is still a sliver of hope here. There is a possibility that this low could track further south and pummel us with snow. Even though the models aren't showing that, it has happened before. Just remember that the low has not even formed yet, so it's location is obviously subject to change. But right now, I don't think that'll happen. Ho hum...

Keep checking back; the next 24 hours are critical to our storm track.

12/12 - 6:30pm - Ups and Downs

We started off the day with the models giving us all snow for Saturday, and a good chunk of it at that. As the afternoon progressed though, a small amount of warming on the models started chipping away at our possible snow totals. This same scenario happened yesterday as well.

I'll put it out there right now that we could see over 6 inches of snow if we can get all snow here. If we start with a little rain, I think we could still get a 3-5 shot. But if some of the other models are correct, we could see less than an inch. That's a big gradient!

Since this kind of warm-up on the models occurred yesterday then receded this morning, I'm skeptical. The HPC is putting us in a SLIGHT risk for over 4 inches of snow, but the MODERATE risk is just a few miles north of us. This all means that I can't tell you what will happen right now.

My best guess now is that we'll get a small bit of rain for an hour or so on Friday night and then turn to snow. Accumulations would be around 3-5 inches I would think. I was worried that the storm was definitely going north until the NAM pulled it WAY south again. (EDIT: After looking around at the other models more, I realized that this NAM is on the fritz, disregard this model run) Even though it was too far south for us to get snow, it at least balances out some of the warmer models. So really, just hold on until Friday when components start coming together and then we'll see what will happen. Somebody around here is going to get quite a snowstorm...