6/13 - 10pm - Back from Bonnaroo, Storms This Week?

I'm back from a very hot (temperature and music-wise) weekend at the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival in Manchester, TN. It only rained briefly on Saturday evening, but the rest of the event was hot and dry. The heat created a couple of notable dust devils at the festival, one of which shook up the crowd for a few seconds as it ripped through one of the main arteries of the event area. It picked up nothing more than small debris (paper, cardboard, etc) but it was very well-formed and unfortunately didn't last long enough to get pictures. Even though the air quality deteriorated greatly throughout the weekend as the dusty air thickened, the festival was fantastic and the weather cooperated fairly well given the time of year.

Storms are in the forecast for Kentucky and Tennessee this week as an area of low pressure moves through the Plains and Midwest. An accompanying cold front will help to provide lift for severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday for much of Tennessee and Western Kentucky, with that threat shifting slightly eastward and northward to include the Louisville area on Wednesday. A warm front extending to the east of this low pressure area will serve as the northward extent of this severe weather threat on both days. On Wednesday it should be on or near the Ohio River, so areas south of that boundary (possibly Louisville) will have to watch out for damaging winds, hail, and maybe even an isolated tornado or two. My gut tells me this will be a linear/straight-line wind event on Wednesday for Louisville due to the west-northwest winds aloft coupled with east-southeast winds at the surface, but supercells certainly aren't out of the question in places that get a more westerly wind vector aloft. Also, temperatures aloft will likely be too cold to support much of an isolated supercell threat in Kentucky, so my thinking is that the tornado threat for this whole event will remain fairly low in the northern portion of the storm area. A supercell or two would be a little more likely in Tennessee, but still remains a small risk. In any case, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Slight Risk areas for severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday (pictured left). The placement of the warm front on Wednesday will be a key factor in determining exactly where severe storms will form on Wednesday, so it's something to definitely keep an eye on!

6/8 - 8am - Bonnaroo!

The Bonnaroo Music Festival begins Thursday in Manchester, Tennessee and I'll be there! This year's lineup features Arcade Fire, My Morning Jacket, Primus, and many more world-class bands and performers. Going to Bonnaroo? I have the latest forecast! As usual it look likes this year's festival will be hot and humid, but even more so this year because a bit of ridging in the atmosphere will build up heat to above average levels. There will be daily rain chances from summertime pop-up thunderstorms that will form during the afternoon, so be ready to get wet. These storms will be slow movers, so there could be some mud issues at the festival site should one of these develop and sit over Manchester. Here's a detailed forecast:

Thursday:  91 / 69         Sunny           20% T-Storms
Friday:       92 / 67         Sunny           30% T-Storms
Saturday:   91 / 68     Mostly Sunny    20% T-Storms
Sunday:     91 / 69     Mostly Sunny    30% T-Storms

The good news is that this heat may give just a little bit next week as the ridge we're under right now across the Southeast begins to break-down and move off. I think most locations in Kentucky and Tennessee will at least get below 90 for highs next week. Daily heat-induced thunderstorm chances will stick around, which is normal for this time of year. Summer may still be a couple weeks away, but the summer weather pattern is already in place!

6/15 - 10am CDT - Hello from the Florida Gulf Coast!

After four fun days of camping in the Tennessee heat at the Bonnaroo Music Festival, I'm glad to report that I've made it to Grayton Beach, Florida! I'll be here all this week on vacation and it'll for sure be a great time.

So far no tar balls or oil has come ashore in this area, which is sandwiched between Panama City and Destin, Florida. The computer forecast models for this oil spill are bringing some oil pretty close to shore this week, but hopefully it will be far enough away for the beaches to stay open.

6/9 - 10:30am - Leaving for Bonnaroo Tomorrow!

I'm off to the Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival in Manchester, Tennessee tomorrow. This will be my third time at the festival, which this year features musicians and groups like the Dave Matthews Band, Norah Jones, Stevie Wonder, and former Tonight Show host Conan O'Brien. While there are some hotels and other accommodations available in and around the festival, most people (including us) opt to camp out. This isn't your typical camping trip because attendees like to construct elaborate campsites with solar-powered L.E.D. lights, flags, speakers, and more. Should be fun! I won't have reliable internet access from the festival, so I won't be able to post on the blog until next week. Here's a weather forecast from the NWS if you're going:

Once Bonnaroo is finished on Monday, I'll be making my way down to Grayton Beach, Florida for a week of vacation. Reports of a few tar balls washing ashore from the Gulf oil disaster in this area have been coming in over the past few days (I'll post pictures here if I find any), but we'll see if the beaches remain open. The Florida Gulf Coast is a great place to vacation even if the beaches are closed, so it should be a great week anyway!